Cycles Intro
Thank you for visiting 40YearCycle.com…
In order to prevent a misunderstanding of cycles – or at least our approach to cycle analysis – it is good to start out with a quick summation of what cycles are NOT…
They are NOT perfect.
Rather, they are a foundation… a foundation on which a better understanding of our world can be based… afoundation on which a better understanding of the markets and market movement can be based… and a foundation from which a successful speculative or investment strategy can be erected.
What cycles ARE… is a measuring and projection of time assuming (as has been proven time & time again) that“history repeats itself”. However, do not expect history to repeat itself in the same fashion, at the same place, and in the same degree, as it did originally.
If it did, it would indicate that all of life is simply revolving in a circle. Instead, life (the markets, etc.) should be viewed as a spiral–constantly revolving in a circular pattern BUT never returning to exactly the same spot from which it came. It is progressing – forward & upward – even as it revolves in a type of circuit.
So, in reality, history replicates or resembles itself. It mimics or mirrors past events… but does not provide an exact repetition of those events. And since this can often occur very surreptitiously, it is critical to know WHEN to expect those replications. That is where cycles come into play.
The question is often posed: Why rely on cycles? The same could be asked of clocks & calendars: Why use them? And, the answer is the same… The reason for applying cycle analysis is to have a gauge of when certain events can be anticipated… even if the exact event is not known. In the case of market analysis, the reason for applying cycle analysis is to utilize a time-tested approach to timing shifts in mass psychology & market movement.
For those that are skeptical toward this approach, stop and think about some of the very logical reasons this is true. The most profound is human nature… and human longevity. For the last 3,000+ years, the average human life has been about 70 years. With that in mind, all one needs to recognize is how often ‘the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree’ or – when viewing the less desirable attributes in a life – ‘the sins of the father passed down to the son…’.
Within a family, many patterns – some more destructive than others – are repeated (replicated, but not an exact repeat) at regular intervals… usually when the offspring reach a similar age to when the offending act or behavior was first triggered by the parent(s). A similar ‘cycle’ occurs in societies, with mass psychology and behavior recurring at regular intervals – in ensuing generations. It is cyclical!
There are many other logical reasons why cycles are a normal, natural recurring phenomenon (discussed in corresponding articles). But, their application is equally important…
Over the past two decades, this approach has been validated repeatedly with analysis published in 1999–2001 (anticipating war cycles and a ‘surprise attack on America’s shores’ for late-2001), in 2007 (describing the 17-Year & 34-Year Cycle of market crashes that was projecting a 1-3 year/35-50% drop in stocks beginning in October 2007) and in 2009–2011 (forecasting major earthquakes in Chile, Japan & N. America for the precise periods in which they ultimately occurred).
In the past decade, cycle analysis pinpointed a Major cycle high in Gold & Silver for 2011 and a subsequent low in late-2015. All of these cited analyses were published for thousands or tens of thousands of readers well BEFORE the fact. And all of this corroborates uncanny & unprecedented cycles coming into play in 2018 – 2021… in the markets, the Middle East & the Earth!
There is a lot more to this discussion. For now, the important thing to recognize is that an overwhelming convergence of diverse cycles – ranging from those impacting the markets & societies, geopolitics and war, gold vs. fiat currency, to those governing crop production, food crises, earth disturbances and many more esoteric realms – occurs in 2018 – 2021.
The articles & analysis on this site barely scratch the surface of all that is coming together in the next several years… and how prudent individuals can and should prepare for this. That is not to advocate a ‘Chicken Little’ approach, but rather to encourage the type of action that one might take if a hurricane or major snow storm were bearing down on that individual’s residence & livelihood.
Readers often take one of two approaches – either making prudent choices & preparations for what could occur (based on numerous corroborating signs & precursor events) OR sticking their head in the sand and repeating to themselves ‘I don’t see any potential threat down here’. The choice is up to you. In either case, this should only be viewed as a starting point. There is much, MUCH more to consider.
With that said, I sincerely thank you for visiting this site and I genuinely hope that it is educational and beneficial to you… and to your understanding of the markets and the world in which they – and we – exist. I welcome any and all constructive comments although I cannot personally respond to most of them. If they do warrant a response, someone will be sure to get back to you as soon as possible.
And, for any analysis that refers to the markets or investing, it is important to remember:
Futures Trading & Speculative Investments Do Involve Substantial Risk!
I wish you the best in all your market & personal endeavors.
Gratefully,
Eric
Eric S. Hadik – President
INSIIDE Track Trading