Why Metals Are Nearing an Intermediate Cycle Peak… and Why the XAU is Now ‘Do-or-Die’!
Why Metals Are Nearing an Intermediate Cycle Peak… and Why the XAU is Now ‘Do-or-Die’!
10/20/18 – Weekly Re-Lay: Gold & Silver remain in positive daily trends with the potential to extend this rebound into Oct. 29 – Nov. 2 (+ or – 1 week) – the latest phase of a consistent 20-week high-high-high-high Cycle Progression in Silver. A rally into that time frame would represent a normal rebound in time (.500 – .618) and potentially complete a ‘c = a’ rally in time (successive ~3-week rallies).
Each week that goes by increases the likelihood that Gold set a 3 – 6 month bottom in mid-Aug. while perpetuating its 27 – 29 week cycle. That cycle – and the over-arching 55 – 59 week cycle – helped pinpoint the late-Jan. 2018 peaks and anticipates related highs in late-Feb./early-March 2019.
The Aug. 2018 low was a precise 50% retracement in time, completing a 29-week decline in Gold (from its late-Jan. peak) that immediately followed a 58-week advance (Dec. ’16 – Jan. ’18).
Silver remains in a decisive period, needing a weekly close above 1495.0/SIZ to turn its weekly trend up and confirm a multi-month bottom. Gold just neutralized its weekly downtrend, for the first time, so the earliest it could turn that trend up would be on Nov. 2 (since it still needs a second neutral signal before that reversal can be generated)…
Gold & Silver are both in daily uptrends with Gold also remaining in an intra-month uptrend. That should spur some new upside into month-end…
The XAU has, however, reached an important inflection point. It surged to its monthly LHR (71.46) while retesting its Dec. 2016 low (71.63) – that level of support-now-turned-into-resistance that was the minimum downside for almost two years.
The weekly 21 Low MAC is descending and providing related resistance so the XAU is at a level of do-or-die.”
Gold & Silver continue to build a base after bottoming along with monthly cycle lows in Aug./Sept. 2018. They could extend current rebounds into Oct. 29 – Nov. 2 before the next setback. The XAU has already reached a critical level of ‘do-or-die’, so the coming days could be decisive.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.