Oil Buy Signals Validated III
Late-Sept. ’17 – Late-Sept. ’18 = Bullish Period.
Middle East/Israel Cycles Concur
08/31/17 INSIIDE Track: Crude Oil – Multi-year trend down after fulfilling cycle high in mid-2014 – the convergence of monthly & yearly cycles. Crude dropped sharply into mid-’17 but cycles expected to turn bullish in Sept./Oct. 17…
Israel’s September Cycle
In the past, the uncanny repetition of September Middle East (usually Israel) events has been documented. It is intriguing since the beginning of the Jewish calendar takes place in September (Rosh Hashana), so it is a natural time for inflection points or events to be encountered.
There is also a recurring 8-Year Cycle of Israel-related events, dating back to the 1960’s. Most of them were directly related to attempts at or failure to achieve a lasting peace accord.
In Sept. 1969, Golda Meir met with Richard Nixon, regarding Israel’s suspected nuclear capability (and their refusal to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
In 3Q 1977, Anwar Sadat and Menachem Begin began the steps toward a peace accord (that was signed a year later – also in September).
In 3Q 1985, there was a combination of events including Israel’s UN submission – attributing terror escalation to Yasser Arafat, Israel brokering the US/Iran arms deal & Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon.
In Sept. 1993, the Oslo Accord (which Israel referred to as the Oslo War) was thrust upon Israel.
In Sept. 2001, a series of PLO bombings in Israel (that spanned June – Dec.) intensified with multiple Jerusalem bombings. They preceded the attacks of 9/11 – which quickly escalated America’s involvement in the Middle East and her empathy toward Israel. In Sept. 2009, Obama re-ignited the peace process, though the Sept. 20 – 22, 2009 meetings were viewed as a failure.
As for Sept. 2017, the US (Jared Kushner & company) have laid the groundwork for a new attempt at peace talks. With respect to this potential, two repeating patterns should be kept in mind:
1 – Previous talks have often coincided with reactive attacks from factions that are not in favor of peace.
2 – Previous talks often reach some form of fruition in September of the ensuing year, focusing corresponding attention on Sept. 2018 – a complete 40-Year Cycle from the Camp David Accords (and a recurring 40-Year Cycle that includes the start of the Holocaust in 1938 and the initiation of the First Zionist Congress in 1898).
As explained before, 2017–2019 (–2021) is the recurrence of an uncanny combination of cycles – up to 500 years in duration – that focuses on the Middle East. Will Sept. 2017 start the ball rolling?”
Oil markets are confirming major (1Q 2016) & secondary (mid-2017) lows and increasing the potential to take off higher in Sept./Oct. 2017, in sync with Middle East Cycles and cycles that have impacted Israel & Jerusalem for centuries. That is projected to spur an overall advance in the Energy Complex into Sept./Oct. 2018 – the culmination of this impending Middle East ‘shift’ cycle.
An initial peak in 1Q 2018 would reinforce the outlook for progressively higher highs into Sept./Oct. 2018.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.