What to Expect from Gold, Silver & Gold Stocks for Next 2 – 3 Years!
What to Expect from Gold, Silver & Gold Stocks for Next 2 – 3 Years!
11/29/18 INSIIDE Track: “Gold & Silver remain in a multi-year consolidation that is considered to be a corrective rally following the 5-wave decline from 2011 into late-2015. The key for Gold remains its Dec. 2016 low. That was, and still is, perceived to be the ’B’ wave low of an ’A-B-C’ wave rebound – capable of stretching into 2019 (or beyond).
In late-Jan. ’18, Gold fulfilled 27 – 29 week and 55 – 59 week cycles that projected a future peak for March 2019 with an intervening phase of the 27 – 29 week cycle arriving in August 2018. Gold sold off into that (Aug. ‘18) cycle – also the midpoint of the 55 – 59 week cycle – and set a multi-month low.
The primary upside target for 2019/2020 is at [reserved for subscribers], where multiple ’rally = rally’ projections intersect the 4th wave of lesser degree resistance (from the 2011 – 2015 decline). These wave/price targets do NOT incorporate time, so other indicators need to blend the two.
One other consistent cycle in Gold is worth noting. It is a 17 – 18 month high-high cycle that has timed five successive highs (beginning with the secondary peak in Feb. ‘12) – most recently the July ‘16 & Jan, ‘18 highs – and projects another in June/July ‘19.
Reinforcing the potential for metals (Gold, Silver, Copper, XAU) to go through a bottoming phase in Aug. – Nov. 2018, and then enter the early stages of a new advance, Silver retested its lows in Nov. and fulfilled multiple weekly/monthly cycles as well as its weekly trend pattern.
It did that at the same time the XAU was projecting a secondary low (~Nov. 13) and during the same week when Gold set a higher/secondary low while fulfilling a 12 – 13 week/~90-degree high-low-low-low-low Cycle Progression (that could spur an overall 12 – 13 week rally into early-Feb.).
One of the most important, and most consistent, cycles is one that was discussed repeatedly in late-2017 – in the context of projecting the (then) next multi-month peak to take hold in late-Jan./early-Feb. 2018. In concert with the 90/10 Rule of Cycles, that anticipated cycle peak also pinpointed the time (Dec. ’17/Jan. ’18) with the greatest potential for an accelerated advance – at the culmination of that cycle.
The cycle in question is an approximate 9.5-month, or 39 – 41-week, cycle in Silver. In 4Q 2017, it was described this way:
“That is reinforced by Silver’s secondary peak set in mid-April ‘17 – ~9.5 months (41 weeks) from the early-July ‘16 peak. An equidistant ~9.5 months/~41 weeks from the April ’17 high (high-high-high Cycle Progression) projects a peak in Feb. 2018.
That April ‘17 peak was the latest phase of an 8.5 – 9.5 month/36 – 41 week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.”
At the time, it was described in its broadest sense – a 36 – 41-week Cycle Progression – but the majority of its phases, in the past 2 – 3 years, have been locked in at 1 – 2 weeks on either side (+ or -) of a 40-week cycle. After producing four successive highs (10/15, 7/16, 4/17 & 1/18), the Cycle Progression projected a subsequent low for Nov. 5 – 19, 2018.
Since the April 2017 peak, that cycle has subdivided – creating a 20 – 22-week Cycle Progression. After producing four successive highs (4/17, 9/17, 1/18 & 6/18), that Cycle Progression projected a subsequent low for Nov. 5 – 19, 2018. [See accompanying diagrams.]
As metals were exiting that Nov. ‘18 cycle low, Gold entered the time – based on the weekly 21 MAC and its inversely-correlated 21 MARC – when a multi-week surge became more likely (since the 21 MARC would drop sharply from mid-Nov. into mid-Dec.). This could/should be underway.
To begin this past week, Gold pulled back precisely to its weekly HLS (1216.9/GCG; extreme downside target for this week) and reversed higher after triggering WR traders to enter long positions.
So, price action is initially validating this myriad of weekly & monthly cycles that could produce a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom in Gold & Silver
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month traders & investors could have entered long Gold positions (cash, futures, ETFs, etc.) at ~1200.0 down to 1186/GCZ. Use a weekly close below [reserved for subscribers] TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month traders & investors can now also enter long positions in Silver (cash, futures, ETFs, etc.) at current levels [reserved for subscribers].
The XAU remains in a weekly uptrend after bottoming in sync with longer-term cycles, including a ~32-month high-high-low-low-low Cycle Progression, a 3-month/90-degree Cycle Progression, a ~180-degree high (Sept. ‘16) – low (Mar. ‘17) – high (Sept. ‘17) – low (Mar. ‘18) – low (Sept. ‘18) Cycle Sequence AND a ~360-degree high (Sept. ‘16) – high (Sept. ‘17) – low (Sept. ‘18) Cycle Progression.
Long-term cycles continue to project the next multi-year peak in late-2020/early-2021. The greatest synergy of cycles occurs in 4Q 2020. That includes a recurring ~5-year cycle that dates back to early-1996 and a ~10-year low (4Q ‘00) – high (4Q ‘10) – high (4Q ‘20) Cycle Progression.
On a 1 – 3 month basis, pivotal resistance comes into play at 75.65 – 76.88/XAU. That is both an initial upside target and the level that needs to be broken in order to signal a 3 – 6 month bottom. On a 1 – 2 year basis, xxx.x/XAU is developing as an upside target. However, the XAU needs a weekly and monthly close above xx.xx to validate that scenario. [reserved for subscribers]” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Gold, Silver & the XAU are rallying from cycle lows on Nov. 13 and expected to extend these rallies into mid-Dec. and ultimately into Feb. 2019. The initial rally in Gold & Silver is expected to last into ~Dec. 12. while the XAU has diverging cycles.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.