Domestic & Global Equities Confirming Projected Late-2018 Lows; What Would Multi-Week Surge Reveal?
Domestic & Global Equities Confirming Projected Late-2018 Lows; What Would Multi-Week Surge Reveal?
01/05/19 INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update – “Stock Indices have confirmed a 1 – 2 week bottom, and could be signaling a 2 – 4 week bottom (on Dec. 26) after fulfilling most of the outlook for 4Q 2018 – dropping sharply throughout December after setting a secondary (lower) high in late-Nov./early-Dec. and making it down to the primary downside target for all of 2018 (22.100/DJIA).
At the same time, the Nasdaq 100 made it down to its 4Q 2018 downside target (~6200/NQ) as global indices (Europe & China) fulfilled early-2018 projections for a year-long decline into late-2018.
The Dec. 26 low occurred during the latest phases of a 14-week high (March 5 – 9) – high (June 11 – 15) – high (Sept. 17 – 21) – low (Dec. 24 – 28) Cycle Progression and a corresponding 7-week high (Sept. 17 – 21) – high (Nov. 5 – 9) – low (Dec. 24 – 28) Cycle Progression. It also fulfilled a 16 trading-day high (Oct. 17) – high (Nov. 8) – high (Dec. 3) – low Cycle Progression.
That daily cycle has also governed the Major Market Index since mid-year, creating a 15 – 16 trading-day low (6/25) – high (7/17) – high (8/07) – high (8/29) – high (9/21) – high (10/17) – high (11/08) – high (12/03) – low (12/26 – 27/18) Cycle Progression that next comes into play on Jan. 17 – 18, when a subsequent low is also likely.
After bottoming on Dec. 26, stock indexes rallied and turned their daily trends up, signaling an initial high. They were then expected to see a 1 – 3 day pullback followed by a new surge on Jan. 4 into the coming week. They have closely adhered to this scenario, pulling back for ~2 days before resuming their advances on Jan. 4.
That is reinforcing the intermediate outlook for an overall rally from Dec. 26/27 into Jan. 7 – 11 – the latest phase of an overlapping, 14-week low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in the DJIA.
That rally was/is projected to reach the late-Oct. lows and corroborating resistance that includes pairs of weekly LHR levels (24,295 – 24,366/DJIA, 2637- 2646/ESH & 6752 – 6774/NQH). In each case, those levels also represent the 50% rebound levels – recovering half of what was lost in 4Q 2018.”
Stocks are signaling multi-week (possibly multi-month) bottoms after reaching downside price targets for 4Q 2018 (6200/NQ) and for all of 2018 (22,100/DJIA) while fulfilling analysis for a very bearish 4Q 2018. Since early-2018, global indexes had been forecast to undergo a year-long decline into late-2018. That has been fulfilled as well, setting the stage for a significant, sharp rebound in US equities.
The Dec. 26/27 lows fulfilled multiple cycles and set the stage for a multi-week bounce that should carry the DJIA, S+P & Nasdaq 100 higher into ~Jan. 9, 2019 and up to initial upside targets. That could pave the way for a second advance after mid-Jan. IF specific criteria are met.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.