Gold & Silver Trading: Will Dollar Turn Down After Metals Bottom? Watch Daily Cycle Lows on April 17 – 18.
Gold & Silver Trading: Will Dollar Turn Down After Metals Bottom? Watch Daily Cycle Lows on April 17 – 18.
04/03/19 Weekly Re-Lay Alert:
Since Dec. ’18, the Dollar Index has maintained some similarities to equity indexes between Jan. & Sept. ’18. The primary parallel has to do with how that index (DX) has remained resilient and near its highs – similar to how key equity indices did in 1Q – 3Q 2018 – even as an ever-growing chorus of contrasting factors continue to sing out warnings of an impending drop.
In 2018, it was a succession of diverse indexes and bellwether stocks topping on a consistent basis. That finally reached the point of critical mass in late-Sept./ early-Oct. and triggered the projected 15 – 20% declines into late-2018 (when a 3.25-year low-low-low cycle portended a 6 – 12 month bottom).
In 2019, the Dollar continues to remain (appear) resilient with the Dollar Index repeatedly retesting its Dec. ’18 high. However, as this is going on, a steady stream of contrasting vehicles (anti-Dollar financial instruments) have been bottoming and turning higher.
In Aug., it was Gold bottoming and reversing higher. It has gained, on balance, since then.
In Oct., it was the Japanese Yen bottoming and reversing higher. It rallied sharply into early-Jan. and remains above those Oct. lows.
In late-Oct., it was the Chinese Yuan bottoming and reversing higher. It has gained, on balance, since then.
In Nov., it was Silver bottoming and reversing higher. It remains above those lows.
In Dec., it was Bitcoin bottoming and reversing higher. It has gained, on balance, since then.
In Dec., it was also the Canadian Dollar bottoming and reversing higher. It remains above those lows.
In early-Jan., it was the British Pound bottoming and reversing higher. It has gained, on balance, since then.
In early-Jan., it was the Australian Dollar bottoming and reversing higher. It remains above those lows.
In early-Mar., it was the Swiss Franc bottoming and reversing higher. It has gained, on balance, since then.
Even the Russian Ruble has gained, against the Dollar, since early-Sept.
And yet the Dollar Index is hovering near multi-year highs. That is why I say: Looks can be deceiving.
Either all these ‘anti-Dollar’ instruments are wrong (or have just undergone a small upside correction before resuming declines) OR they are giving warnings of a developing transition in the Dollar…
Gold & Silver spiked to new recent lows with Silver also spiking below its March 7 low and setting the lowest low of 2019. This fulfills the short-term outlook… but does not preclude additional selling.
It would take daily closes above 1301.7/GCM & 15.190/SIK to turn the intra-month trends up and signal a (minimum) 1 – 2 week low. Until that occurs, the 1 – 2 week and 1 – 2 month trends remain down.
The XAU turned its daily trend down, increasing the potential for some additional selling – in the short-term – before it sets an intermediate low. It quickly bounced, for two days following that reversal, and is poised to resume that drop – even if it is just a 1 – 2 day spike to new intra-month lows.
That drop could take it down to its weekly HLS (extreme downside target for this week) at 73.98/XAU.”
Gold, Silver & XAU fulfilling projections for new declines in April – with daily cycles beginning to focus on April 17 – 18 for potential low. Price action needs to corroborate. Watch Dollar action in final weeks of April!
What Could Trigger New Sell-off & Ultimate Low in April?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.