Palladium & Gold Signal New Rallies in Metals; Late-Feb/Early-Mar. ’19 = Next Cycle High.
Palladium & Gold Signal New Rallies in Metals; Late-Feb/Early-Mar. ’19 = Next Cycle High.
09/18/18 The Bridge – Metals & Miners: What’s Ahead?: “90/10 Rule & Parabolic Culminations
As is so often the case, that weekly trend reversal in Gold – and the ensuing intermediate high in mid-June – ushered in an onslaught of selling in all the metals, leading into 3Q 2018.
Up until that time, Gold had been maintaining some resilience while other metals were struggling. Then the rug was yanked out from under them.
The XAU accelerated lower while Copper experienced its entire decline from early-June (a double-top or ‘b’ wave peak) into mid-Aug. During the same period, Palladium experienced a trio of progressively larger and sharper declines – taking it down to major support and downside targets while giving back half of what it had gained in the previous two years.
The Aug. 18 & 25, 2018 Weekly Re-Lays set the stage for a pivotal low in Palladium & Copper, in sync with a myriad of cycle lows in Aug. ‘18:
08-18-18 – “Palladium did drop to new lows and spiked down to its weekly HLS (extreme downside target) while completing a 50% retracement of its 2016 – 2018 advance. That is an optimum setup for (at least) an intermediate bottom…
Copper is becoming even more intriguing as it just fulfilled its 6 – 9 month downside target. For ~8 months, since Copper fulfilled published analysis for a surge to ~3.3000/HG, the outlook has been for a multi-month drop back to the May 2017 low… In Sept. futures, that May ’17 low was 2.5480/HGU.
On Aug. 15, Copper spiked to 2.5520/HGU – almost perfectly fulfilling that target!
In doing so, Copper plummeted right to its weekly extreme downside target (weekly HLS) at 2.5715/HGU. And this fits perfectly with weekly, monthly and yearly cycles. As stated repeatedly:
August 2018 is the ideal time for a bottom, based on the latest phase of a ~2.5-year/28 – 31-month high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression (dating back to Copper’s Feb. 2011 major peak). The monthly trend pattern is corroborating those cycles – pinpointing August 2018 as the ideal month for a bottom.
And the intra-month downtrend pinpoints mid-Aug. as the ideal time for an intra-month bottom…this is the ideal time and place to exit short positions and enter new long positions.
That applies to 3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month investors and/or hedgers. The minimum risk point/trigger for new longs would be a weekly close below 2.4500/HG. Use that trigger for related positions in cash positions, ETFs, etc.”
08-25-18 – “Palladium is leading the metals recovery after spiking down to its weekly HLS (extreme downside target) while completing a 50% retracement of its 2016 – 2018 advance. That was an optimum setup for (at least) an intermediate bottom and was validated when Palladium rallied and turned its daily trend up…
Copper is recovering after fulfilling its 6 – 9 month downside target and bottoming mid-month while testing and holding its extreme weekly downside target (HLS).
For ~8 months, since Copper fulfilled published analysis for a surge to ~3.3000/HG, the outlook has been for a multi-month drop back to the May 2017 low.
In Elliott Wave terminology, that is known as the ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ and is the primary downside target for a major correction. It is also the most decisive level of 6 – 12 month support.
There were many other indicators projecting similar targets (synergy), many of which were recently fulfilled – portending a bottom. That May 2017 low, in the Sept. futures, was 2.5480/HGU. On Aug. 15, Copper spiked to 2.5520/HGU – almost perfectly fulfilling that target!
In doing so, Copper completed a ‘doubling of the range’ – after trading between 2.9735 – 3.3550/HGU from Sept. ’17 until late-June ’18. And that fit perfectly with weekly, monthly and yearly cycles.
August 2018 remains the ideal time for a bottom, based on the latest phase of a ~2.5-year/28 – 31-month high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression (dating back to Copper’s Feb. 2011 major peak).
The monthly trend pattern corroborated that – pinpointing August 2018 as the ideal month for a bottom. And the intra-month downtrend pegged mid-Aug. as the ideal time for an intra-month low.
Not only that, but Copper completed a perfect 1/1 retracement in price AND time. From May 2017, Copper rallied for 33 weeks from its low at 2.5480/HGU. Since the Dec. ’17 peak, Copper has declined for 33 weeks and right back to the May ’17 low…
33 weeks up/33 weeks down…
~.8000/HG up/~.8000/HG down.
Copper is showing near-term signs of reversing but needs a daily close above 2.7400/HGU to validate.
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month investors and/or hedgers could have exited short positions and entered new long positions near those lows. The minimum risk point for new longs would be a weekly close below 2.4500/HG. Use that trigger point for related positions in cash positions, ETFs, etc.
The Sept. 2018 INSIIDE Track reiterated this analysis, summarizing Palladium’s outlook this way:
08-31-18 – “Palladium dropped sharply into mid-Aug. – completing an ‘a-b-c’ correction in which the ‘c’ wave equaled the magnitude of the ‘a’ wave. It did that while retracing 50% of the Jan. ‘16 – Jan. ‘18 advance – setting the stage for a multi-month bottom. Palladium has rallied and twice neutralized its weekly downtrend, needing a weekly close above 971.8/PAZ to reverse that trend to up.”
Precious Metals enter time for a sequence of 1 – 2 year lows in Aug. – Nov. 2018. Gold provided the first bottom in Aug. ’18 (fulfilling its ~27-week cycle and holding pivotal support) and ushered in this transition period. After Nov. ’18, it should trigger a bullish period in precious metals – leading into late-Feb./early-Mar. ’19 (the next phase of Gold’s 27 – 29 week & 55 – 59 week cycles).
Gold stocks (XAU) are now following suit and preparing for a similar major bottom as they attack 1 – 2 year downside price targets and fulfill monthly & weekly cycle lows. Palladium is again leading the metals and should surge to new multi-year highs as part of developing advance. See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.