Precious Metals (and Equities) Focus on 3Q ’19 Cycles. Could 3Q ’19 Stock Market Low Coincide with Gold Peak?
05/29/19 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Implications of the May 31 Close: “Stock Indices are in the midst of a very decisive two-week period that could have far-reaching implications – influencing what to expect into/through 3Q 2019 and potentially through year-end.
They continue to drop in fulfillment of their negative daily trends, intra-month trends, and daily 21 MACs – as well as daily cycles that again turned negative on May 23 – and are approaching one of the most significant days within that two-week period, the May 31 weekly and monthly close.
All three primary indexes (and many others) have now neutralized their weekly uptrends at least twice (DJIA & S+P 500 have done it three times). It would take weekly closes below 25,222/DJIA, 2799/ESM & 7268/NQMto reverse those trends down. That is why primary focus is on the closing prices of May 31.
If that occurs, it would powerfully corroborate the outlook for an overall correction from late-April/early-May into Aug./Sept. 2019. That (expected) 3Q ’19 low is the latest phase in a 2-year and 4-year cycle that has been discussed since 2017. It timed the 2007 peak and then began timing subsequent lows – usually multi-quarter lows – following sharp declines.
In mid-2017, the intervening 2-year cycle was forecast to time an interim low and spur a subsequent rally into early-2018. That low arrived on schedule and projected a corresponding low 2 years in the future – in 3Q 2019.
The last two phases of the 4-year cycle timed the May – Oct. 2011 sell-off and the May – Aug. 2015 decline. Prior to the opposing peak in 3Q ‘18, and sharp decline in 4Q ’18, those 2011 and 2015 sell-offs were two of the sharpest of the past decade.
Will May – Aug./Sept. 2019 see anything similar?…
Leading into 2019, Gold focus was on two key cycle highs expected during the year. The first was in late-Feb./early-Mar. ’19 and was the most synergistic – representing multiple monthly cycles and the latest phases of Gold’s primary 55 – 59 week cycle (that has governed it for several years) and its secondary 27 – 29 week cycle.
The second was in July 2019 (+ or – 1 month) and was based on monthly cycles.
Gold fulfilled the first one and has been in a corrective mode ever since. If Gold was to maintain the potential to retest or exceed its late-Feb. highs – while creating an expected ~July ’19 peak – it was projected to pull back to 1256 – 1270.0/GC in between, allowing for traders to re-enter long positions (that were exited in late-Feb.) at 1270.0/GCM and below.
Gold retested that support last week and again rallied, reinforcing its significance. If Gold continues to hold that support AND Silver fulfills its primary downside target (xx.xxx/SIN), that would usher in the time for a more substantial rebound with Gold still capable of making it back up to [reserved for subscribers].
The XAU… has repeatedly tested and held the lower end of monthly support at 65.85 – 67.30 and tested weekly support (last week) at 65.63 – 66.38/XAU.
That unfolded as the XAU was completing a 3-month/13-week/90-degree decline from the late-Feb. peak. It bottomed in sync with an 8-month high (Jan. ’18) – low (Sept. ’18) – low (May ’19) Cycle Progression, the latest phase of which included a 5-month rally and 3-month decline (.618 ratio).”
Gold is increasing the likelihood for a new surge into 3Q 2019 – that could coincide with a correction and significant low in overall equity markets. The XAU has just fulfilled multi-month cycles and is projecting an initial ~5-week surge from its May 22 low.
3 – 6 month Gold traders were triggered back into long positions in late-April/early-May (near 1270.0/GC) in preparation for a new, potentially accelerated rally in 3Q 2019. Gold’s ~7-week (and 14 & 21-week) projects future peaks on July 15 – 22, 2019 & Sept. 3 – 6, 2019.
Could Stock Market Correction Spur Accelerated Surge in Precious Metals? Watch 3Q ’19!
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.