Stocks Reinforce Rally from Aug. 26/27 Cycle Low; Project Sept. 13/16 Peak… NFLX Signaling More Trouble (‘Canary in Coal Mine’).
09/07/19 Weekly Re-Lay: “Stock Indices have rallied since bottoming with daily & weekly cycles on Aug. 26/27. The weekly trend patterns argue for a rally back to the highs, initially corroborated by the DJIA & NYA daily trend signals of late-Aug. The next 1 – 2 week (or longer) peak is expected around Sept. 13/16 but needs to be validated by the intra-month trends…
Stock Indices rallied for 3 – 4 days from their Aug. 26/27 lows, pulled back for 1 – 2 days and have since rallied for 3 days – re-entering their weekly uptrends while turning their daily trends and daily 21 MACs up (after also closing above their daily 21 MACs).
That powerfully validates what the weekly trend patterns were showing on Aug. 23 & 30 – that an intermediate low was taking hold (after the weekly trends turned neutral multiple times, but could not turn down as cycles matured) and a rally back to the highs was becoming very likely.
The intra-month trends still need to turn up to reinforce analysis for a rally into mid-month (Sept. 13/16), the same time that daily cycles have already been projecting the next intermediate peak. It would take daily closes above 26,836/DJIA, 2988/ESZ & 7904/NQZ to turn those intra-month trends up.
A rally into mid-Sept. would also perpetuate the uncanny parallels to 2015. In 2015, primary indexes peaked on July 16 and began a ~40-day sell-off. In 2019, primary indexes (DJIA, NYA) peaked on July 16 and began a ~40-day sell-off.
In 2015, that decline accelerated in Aug. and bottomed on the Monday of the final week of Aug. (Aug. 24). In 2019, that decline accelerated in Aug. and bottomed on the Monday of the final week of Aug. (Aug. 26) – along with daily cycles.
In 2015, that Aug. 24 low led to a rebound into mid-Sept. before a sizeable sell-off. In 2019, the Aug. 26/27 has been projected to trigger a rebound into early-to-mid-Sept. before a new sell-off. Will this parallel continue? It appears likely.”
Stock markets rallying from projected Aug. 26/27 low; expected to peak on Sept. 13/16. NFLX reinforces outlook in stocks (‘canary in coal mine’) – projecting rebound into Sept. 6 – 13 before next leg down. (NFLX overall downside target remains MUCH lower!) Why is Sept. 16 – 30 a dangerous period for equity markets?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.