Gold, Silver & XAU Confirm Tops; Signal September Sell-off. Drop to 1460 – 1470/GC Projected.
09/07/19 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold & Silver remain in the midst of a projected ~2-year bull market – from 3Q ’18 into 4Q ’20. In the very center of that period, (late-) 3Q ’19 is one of the two most significant periods in between those cycle extremes (the other is March/April 2020).
A web of inter-related weekly cycles (7-week, 14-week, ~28-week, ~56-week) converged on Aug. 26 – Sept. 6 (see 9/04/19 Weekly Re-Lay Alert for latest discussion on these cycles) – providing the ideal cyclic time for a 1 – 3 month peak.
Now price action needs to validate that potential.
This past week’s peak came just as the Gold/Silver ratio spiked to multi-month lows – below levels last seen in Oct. ’18 & Jan. ’19 (~82/1). A spike like that – back to 6 – 12 month support – could also be indicative of markets reaching an extreme.
Since mid-July, when Silver overtook Gold after Gold cycles projected a multi-week peak in late-June, Gold has been playing catch-up with Silver. Gold consolidated for over five weeks, retesting and holding its high in mid-July while fulfilling daily cycles, before declining again and ultimately spiking lower on Aug. 1 (before resuming its uptrend).
That ushered in the latest phase of Gold’s uptrend as Silver and the XAU were nearing the extremes of theirs (and Platinum was projecting a culminating surge into late-Aug.). With Gold rallying into this latest cycle convergence, it provides the opportunity for the onset of a subsequent correction of one higher magnitude than the most recent one.
So, instead of (roughly) equating to the magnitude of its June – Aug. consolidation, the next correction could be more like the late-Feb. – late-April correction. The timing, however, is likely to be shorter. If that is the case (the daily trend turning down would be the first validation to this scenario), it would have Gold declining to 1460 – 1470/GCZ.
Gold triggered a weekly Double-Key AND outside-week/2 Close Reversal lower this past week while dropping right to its weekly HLS (1510.9/GCZ). That projects a 2 – 3 week sell-off while also signaling that an intermediate low could be seen by late-Sept.
Gold & Silver diverged again, with Silver spiking to substantial new highs while Gold retested and held its previous peak (spiking slightly above it and producing its highest daily close on Sept. 4 – in fulfillment of an uncanny web of cycles).
Both reversed lower but need additional confirming signals. It would take a daily close below 1514.3/GCZ to turn Gold’s intra-month trend down and provide the first sign of a multi-week top and reversal lower. Gold needs a daily close below 1510.7/GCZ to also turn its daily trend down.
Silver just turned its intra-month trend down so it projects a decline into [reserved for subscribers].
The XAU held its Aug. 28 peak and reversed lower, turning its intra-month trend down while closing below its daily 21 Low MAC. That channel would turn lower if the XAU drops below 94.08 on Monday.
The recent high perpetuated an 18 – 21 day low-low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and projects [reserved for subscribers]… Overall, however, the XAU is expected to decline into Sept. 23 – Oct. 4 – perpetuating an 18 – 19 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
A drop to at least 86.00 – 86.80/XAU is likely, and potentially back to 80.25 – 80.80/XAU. This comes after the XAU surged right to its range-trading target near 100.60/XAU (~60.60 – ~80.60 – ~100.60).”
Precious metals peaking in line with uncanny web of weekly cycles in Gold. A multi-month peak in late-Aug./early-Sept. fulfills a myriad of upside objectives… and reinforces cycles converging in March 2020!
1525 – 1540.0/GC, 18.50/SI & 100.60/XAU upside objectives reached! Downside targets now in focus.
How Low Will September Sell-off Stretch?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.