Gold & Gold Stocks Rallying; XAU Projects Surge into Dec. ’19 and Above ~102.00. Gold & Silver Lagging.
11/23/19 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold & Silver remain below the late-Aug./early-Sept. ‘19 cycle highs – peaks that were projected to hold for at least 2 – 3 months while projecting focus to ~March 2020, when an even larger convergence of related cycles would occur. The recent highs fulfilled the latest phase of ~7, ~13 – 14 & 27 – 29-week cycles while reinforcing the latest 54 – 59 week cycle – by peaking at its midpoint.
They sold off into Nov. 12, with Gold completing successive 10-week corrections (late-Feb. – early-May ‘19 and early-Sept. – Nov. 11 – 15, ’19 – before and after the May – Aug. ‘19 advance) resulting in equal-duration corrective waves (4th wave = 2nd wave). At the same time, Silver attacked its primary (multi-month) downside target at 16.50 – 16.80/SIZ, fulfilling a larger-magnitude downside objective and setting the stage for a 1 – 2 month low.
That reinforced the likelihood for Gold & Silver to rebound into early-Dec., the next phase of their ~13 – 14-week cycle & the midpoint of the latest 27 – 29-week cycle. Silver’s test of 16.50 – 16.80/SI also had it attacking the highs of Jan. ’19 – a critical level of 6 – 12 month ‘resistance turned into support’.
That intra-year trend support could hold through year-end, reinforcing the potential for a rebound into early-Dec. before a new sell-off is more likely. More than anything, those factors are portending a likely period of congestion between the early-Sept. highs and mid-Nov. lows… into early-2020.
Based on the weekly trend patterns, metals were expected to see 2 – 3 week reactive rallies take hold from Nov. 8 – potentially taking them higher into early-Dec. They have just completed the second of those weeks so price action – which has been anemic of late – needs to determine when a rebound high is most likely.
With the weekly trend reversals of early-Oct. (Gold) and early-Nov. (Silver), the 1 – 3 month trends are down and could still spur another wave down. From a cycle perspective, that would ideally wait until after an early-Dec. rebound high. From a price perspective, it could occur at any time.
Looking out into 2020, a 1 – 2 month low is expected in [reserved for subscribers]… At least one other key cycle comes into play later in 2020 and will be discussed in the context of longer-term analysis in INSIIDE Track…
The XAU remains in a daily uptrend, turning down on Nov. 21 after peaking while perpetuating an 11 – 13 trading day (~17 calendar day) low close (Sept. 13) – low close (Sept. 30) – low close (Oct. 15) – high close (Nov. 1) – high close (Nov. 20) Cycle Progression that projects the next high close for Dec. 6 – 10.
That should lead to an intervening low on Nov. 26 (+ or – 1 trading day) – the next phase of a 14-day low (Sept. 16) – low (Oct. 1) – low (Oct. 15) – low (Oct. 29) – low (Nov. 12) – low (Nov. 26) – high (Dec. 10) Cycle Progression and the midpoint of the 28 – 29-day Cycle Progression that also projects an advance into Dec. 10/11… dovetailing with weekly cycles (Dec. 2 – 13).”
Gold & Gold on track for advance into Dec. 2 – 13 with XAU in strongest position. Subsequent cycles provide intriguing potential for late-Dec. – into early-Jan. 2020.
When is Next Important Low Likely in Gold?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.