Metals Trading: Gold & XAU Attack Upside Extremes; 1 – 2 Month Peak Likely.
01/04/20 INSIIDE Track: “Gold & Silver spiked higher into Dec. 4 and then sold off into Dec. 9 – with Silver spiking to new multi-month lows and right to its major support (~16.50/SI) while fulfilling its weekly trend pattern as Gold set its lowest weekly close without dropping below its Nov. ‘19 low.
In the case of Gold, that left intact the likelihood that its successive 10-week corrections – in Feb. – April ’19 and Aug. – Nov. ’19 – were the ’2’ and ’4’ waves of an overall 5-wave advance while reinforcing multiple monthly cycles (that bottomed in Nov. ‘19). The only thing left – which the XAU had already signaled – was a ’5’ wave advance.
“11/09/19 – “Gold & Silver have the potential to set a secondary (higher) low in Nov. ’19 – 1 year (360 degrees) from Silver’s major low in Nov. ’18. That would also perpetuate ~6-month/~180-degree low (Nov. ’18) – low (May ’19) – low (Nov. ’19) Cycle Progressions – most obvious in Silver.
From a price/wave perspective, Silver’s test of its 16.50 – 16.80/SI downside target means it is attacking the highs of Jan. ’19 – a pivotal level of 6 – 12 month ‘resistance turned into support’…Silver could still see additional downside (perhaps reaching 16.50/SIZ) before a final low takes hold…
In the case of Gold, there are multiple timing indicators that could produce an intermediate low in the coming week…
They include the potential for successive, 10-week corrections (late-Feb. – early-May and early-Sept. – Nov. 11 – 15) – a potential ‘4th wave = 2nd wave (duration)’ prior to a ‘5th’ wave advance.”
The action of early-Dec., and how quickly Silver made it to new lows and down to 16.50/SI, accelerated intermediate cycles and ushered in the potential for key cycles to invert and time a high in early-Jan. That was already being projected by an intervening 18-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression. Gold needed to rally on Dec. 9 – 13 to confirm that potential and project an accelerated advance:
“12-07-19 – “That is the latest phase of a 35 – 36 week low (Dec. 11 – 15, ‘17) – low (Aug. 18 – 22, ‘18) – low (Apr. 22 – 26, ‘19) – low? (Dec. 30 – Jan. 10, ’20) Cycle Progression.
…if Gold spiked lower and reversed higher in the coming week, that cycle could invert and time a new 1 – 2 month peak (that would also fulfill an ~18-week/~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression).”
The 12/14/19 Weekly Re-Lay updated that and explained why Gold should surge from there – likely exceeding 1520.0/GCG in the ensuing two weeks. The weekly 21 MARC was increasing that possibility and it was becoming more likely that the 90/10 Rule of Cycles was going to subsequently come into play and trigger an even more accelerated advance in Jan. ‘20… an omen of things to come.
12-21-19 – “In many cases, Gold sees its biggest surge in the weeks leading into a multi-month cycle high (90/10 Rule of Cycles, reinforced with the August ’19 surge in Gold – leading into the latest phase of uncanny cycles) so the majority of the next advance could still wait longer (into Jan. or Feb. ’20)…
On Dec. 30, the weekly 21 High MARC will jump to 1528.1/GCG… the coming week is ‘do or die’ for Gold.”
Gold & Silver are fulfilling all of this as they enter a pivotal week on Jan. 6 – 10, 2020. They have surged into this time frame when cycles, weekly trends and weekly LHRs argue for an initial peak with January’s monthly LHR at 1604.9/GCG.
A high on Jan. 6 – 10 would fulfill a 36-week low (Dec. 11 – 15, ‘17) – low (Aug. 18 – 22, ‘18) – low (Apr. 22 – 26, ‘19) – high (Jan. 6 – 10, ’20) Cycle Progression as well as an ~18-week/~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
The action of the first couple days of January is also (already) fulfilling the likelihood for an accelerated advance in Jan. ’20 – reaffirming the 90/10 Rule of Cycles (90% of a price move occurs during the final 10% of a cycle). Silver’s weekly trend pattern and weekly LHR indicator are also arguing for a surge into Jan. 6 – 10.
A high, however, be short-lived. If Gold & Silver pull back for 2 – 3 weeks, and Gold holds key support around 1520.0/GCG, it would leave open the potential for additional upside (still part of the ‘5’ wave advance) into March 2020. As reiterated throughout 2019, all of these cycle highs are expected to be a sequence of higher highs.
The recent price action of Gold reinforces the point made last month, involving a key fundamental that has been discussed for several years. It involves the steady intensification of Gold repatriation by major Western nations & central bank buying (see Dec. ‘19 INSIIDE Track). That factor could continue to play a key role in 2020 – 2021.
The XAU has steadily rallied since precisely fulfilled its downside objectives in Oct., completing the projected drop to 86.00 – 86.80/XAU while perpetuating an 18 – 19 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression. In contrast to Gold & Silver, the XAU neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times but did NOT turn that trend down.
That was/is the ideal scenario for a multi-month low and a subsequent rally back to its late-Aug. high and ultimately up to ~110.0/XAU. The XAU is tracing out a textbook Elliott Wave formation (like Gold) with the Oct. low representing the ’4th’ wave low of an overall 5-wave advance.
The XAU’s recent ’4th’ wave decline almost perfectly matched the magnitude of the previous ’2nd’ wave decline – providing additional corroboration to this wave interpretation. [Feb. – May ‘19 decline (’2nd’ wave) from 80.76 to 65.85 = drop of 14.91 points. Aug.. – Oct ‘19 decline (’4th’ wave) from 102.29 to 86.84 = drop of 15.41 points.]”
Gold, Silver & XAU confirming analysis for 1 – 2 month peak, fulfilling weekly & monthly cycles. Precious metals remain on track for overall advance into March 2020.
How Much Higher Could Metals Reach by/in March ‘20?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.