Silver Surging in Sync With 12 – 14 Month Bullish Cycle! Biggest Gains Yet to Come.
07/08/20 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Silver Signals, Cycles & (Stock Market) Synergy: “In the second half of March, Silver entered what could and should be its most bullish period in over a decade.
That is when it fulfilled an uncanny web of cycle lows (on March 16 – 20) while spiking to new ~10-year lows and reaching major support. Within days, it prompted an initial multi-month buy signal and entered a 6 – 12 month period with significant upside potential.
There was a myriad of reasons for expecting a bullish period in Silver to follow – likely extending into May ’21. That also dovetailed with what had been described in 3Q 2018 – when projecting a major bull market in Gold and the XAU – from Aug./Sept. ’18 into late-2020 and most likely stretching into May 2021.
Silver was the last to join this bullish phase, but could make up for lost time.
In order to best understand – and take advantage of – that potential, it is important to begin with the broader outlook & cycles and then progressively work to the short-term/daily cycles & indicators. That way, the short-term and intermediate-term outlooks can be kept in proper perspective.
First, there is the 6 – 12 month outlook for an overall advance from the March 16 – 20 low into May ’21.
The March 16 – 20 low fulfilled an abundance of daily, weekly, monthly and multi-year cycles – at the same time stock indexes were portending a 6 – 12 month bottom – and was detailed in the March 18, 2020 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – ‘The Week for a Low… in Stocks & Silver’:
“Gold just plummeted to 1450.9/GCJ – fulfilling the primary downside price projection for this drop from early-March. That reinforces this pivotal level of support that could be retested after a period of consolidation. (It does question whether more downside is still likely, which will be examined in the coming weeks.)
Metals bottomed in perfect sync with daily cycles that forecast this initial sell-off to last into March 13/16 – the latest phase of a 10 – 11 trading day low (Jan. 14) – low (Jan. 29) – low (Feb. 12) – low (Feb. 28) Cycle Progression coinciding with other cycles. That could spur a sharp rally in Gold…
Silver has powerfully confirmed its status as the weaker sister – projected to plunge to new lows even as Gold simply undergoes a 1 – 2 month correction. However, this remains a critical time for Silver when an important bottom could take hold.
Not only did a 10 – 11 trading day low (Jan. 14) – low (Jan. 29) – low (Feb. 12) – low (Feb. 28) Cycle Progression project a low for March 13/16, so did many other weekly cycles – all connected to Silver’s uncanny web of 7-week-related cycles.
March 16 – 20, 2020 is the culmination of a 70-week low (July 10 – 14, ’17) – low (Nov. 12 – 16, ’18) – low Cycle Progression.
March 16 – 20, 2020 is also the latest phase of a 14-week low (July 10 – 14, ’17) – high (Feb. 18 – 22, ’18) – low (Nov. 12 – 16, ’18) – high (Sept. 2 – 6, ’19) – low (Dec. 9 – 13, ’19) – low Cycle Sequence.
March 16 – 20, 2020 is also the midpoint of the 28-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the Dec. 9 – 13, 2019 low and ushered in the bullish period into late-Feb./early-March ’20.
March 16 – 20, 2020 is also the fulfillment of an overlapping 28-week high (Feb. ’19) – high (Sept. ’19) -low Cycle Progression.
March 16 – 20, 2020 is also the fulfillment of a 7-week high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that was discussed in mid-Dec. and late-Jan. – when the two preceding lows were forecast.
A low on March 16 – 20, 2020 would divide this 7-week web of cycles and the overall 70-week low-low-low cycle into a proportional 42 weeks up & 28 weeks down. Once again, this 7-week web of cycles comes back into play and could time a much more significant bottom in Silver.
And, on a much larger basis, a low in March 2020 would provide some important symmetry to the past decade in the overall metals complex…
Precious metals went through a topping phase in late-2010 – late-2011 with Gold providing the final peak in Sept. 2011. The complex then plunged into Dec. 2015 – setting a multi-year low.
That 51-month decline sets the stage for a divergent bottom in Silver – the weakest of the metals – in March 2020 – 51 months later (51-month high-low-(low) Cycle Progression).
With Silver trading around 12.00/SI (setting its lowest daily close today, below 11.80/SIK), it is the lowest level since March 2009 and could be time for a major low.
Similar to equity markets, this is a good time for longer-term traders and investors to begin buying Silver or related stocks… while risking a weekly close below 11.00/SIK (use the futures as the trigger point for the risk on this metals’ position).
The XAU fulfilled the potential for a sharp drop into March 12 – 16 – the latest phase of a ~60-degree/ ~2-month low (Sept. 13/16) – low (Nov. 12) – low (Jan. 14) – (low) Cycle Progression.
It tested its monthly HLS (extreme downside target) and briefly spiked down to 6 – 12 month support at 66.00/XAU.”
That week – from March 16 – 23 – remains as one of the most significant and decisive weeks in Silver, stocks, Gold & Silver stocks (XAU), oil markets.
Not only did it generate multi-month buy signals – in Silver, metals’ stocks and overall stocks – it began the clock ticking on the most bullish phase of the overall 2016 – 2021 cycle in precious metals – the culminating phase from 2Q 2020 into 2Q 2021.
As described many times since then, this is the period when Silver was/is expected to rally in greater proportion to Gold… for the first time in many years.
That could/should contract the Gold/Silver ratio and was/is expected to be linked to stock performance as well as some developing (price) inflationary expectations – even if only for a year.
On a more intermediate basis, the late-Feb./early-March ‘20 metals’ peak – that occurred just before Silver’s blow-off decline into March 16 – 20 – perpetuated a ~3-month/~90-degree cycle that was expected to create a subsequent multi-week peak in late-May/early-June and should produce another intermediate peak in early-Sept. ’20.
Another peak did occur in early-June, reinforcing the likelihood for a subsequent peak in early-Sept… That June 1 peak perpetuated a geometric web of cycles while arriving 90 days/degrees from Silver’s late-Feb. low, 180 days/degrees from its early-Dec. ’19 low and 270 days/degrees from its early-Sept. ’19 peak… as well as prior ~180-degree turning points.
All of those cycles remain intact and have been reinforced by ongoing action.
In between, Silver (and most metals, XAU, etc.) was expected to correct from early-June into June 22 – 26 before bullish cycles would re-exert themselves. Silver initially sold off into the week of June 15 – 19 but could not produce confirming technical signals needed to extend that sell-off.
As a result, it turned back up earlier than expected and from a higher level than expected – providing new evidence that it is in the midst of a bullish 6 – 12 month cycle. Once again, it is rallying in sync with stock indexes – reinforcing the scenario and the synergy (sometimes symbiosis) expected from mid-March ’20 into May ’21…
Gold & Silver have rallied back to their highs after cycles bottomed and turned back up on June 22 – 26 (even though price action bottomed a week earlier) – the same time that Silver turned its weekly trend back up… Silver needs to give a weekly close above its June ’20 peak (19.035/SIU) to show strength.
That is also of interest since Silver has repeatedly bumped up against its early-2020 high (19.000/SIU) but has never (yet) produced a weekly close above that level. If/when that occurs (which is ultimately expected), Silver would turn its intra-year trend up. Both have turned their intra-month trends up, increasing the potential for additional upside into next week.
The XAU has surged from intermediate support (~110.00) after bottoming on June 18, a couple days before cycles were portending a low. While setting that low, the XAU twice neutralized its weekly uptrend but did not turn it down. That weekly trend pattern projected a rally back to the highs, which has now been fulfilled.
The XAU was/is expected to see follow-through higher up to its next major upside target at 135.00 – 140.00. Monthly resistance, targets and weekly extremes all converge at 139.70 – 141.50/XAU, producing a likely target for this latest rally.”
Gold & Silver reinforcing mid-March ’20 cycle lows – a powerful convergence of cycles that projected a new bull market (most obvious in Silver) from mid-March ’20 into 2Q ’21. A more bullish phase was/is expected to last from 3Q ‘20 into 2Q 2021. Silver gains are expected to outpace Gold gains during that period, as Silver & metals stocks forecast to track closer with (bullish) overall stock market and inflationary forces support Silver.
How High Could Silver Surge During This Bullish Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.