Gold Trading: Gold, Silver, Mining Shares Project Add’l Upside.
10/16/21 Weekly Re-Lay – Gold & Silver are fulfilling expectations for a multi-week rally after bottoming in late-Sept while fulfilling weekly extreme support indicators (projecting a 1 – 2 month low by Oct 1). They reversed higher on Sept 30 – 180 degrees (6 months) from the Mar 30/31 lows in metals.
That fulfilled a ~6-month high (Sept ’19) – low (Mar ’20) – low (Sept ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – low (Sept ’21) Cycle Progression as Silver nearly completed a 50% retracement of its Mar – Aug ’20 advance (~12.00 to ~30.00/SI).
[That ~6-month cycle recurs in March/April ’22 – the same time that Gold’s 21 – 22-week cycle comes back into play and when a ~1-year/~54-week low-low-low Cycle Progression recurs. That is when the next 3 – 6 month bottom is expected.]…
Gold & Silver are reaffirming developing signs of a multi-week low and reversal higher. They set their lowest close and intraday lows on Sept 29 and have rebounded since then – turning their daily & intra-month trends up and confirming an intermediate bottom.
Silver has been following a textbook daily 21 MAC reversal sequence – similar to Gold in recent weeks – rallying into the 21 MAC and up to the declining 21 High MAC, before dropping back to test and bottom at the declining 21 Low MAC.
It then surged from there, closing above the still-descending daily 21 High MAC. Based on the dropping (and inversely-correlated) daily 21 MARC, the daily 21 MAC should turn up on Oct. 18. A rally into Oct 25 would match the duration of the previous (early-Aug – early-Sept) rally.
The XAU & HUI remain on track for a rally into (at least) Oct 18 – 22, the latest phase of the HUI’s 11-week low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. They reversed higher in late-Sept., in lockstep with yearly, monthly & weekly cycles as well as their respective weekly HLS patterns.
In late-Sept., they fulfilled a consistent 29 – 31 week low (Nov ’18) – low (May ’19) – high (Dec ‘19/ Jan ’20) – high (Aug ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – low (Sept 17 – Oct 1, ’21) Cycle Sequence. (That cycle next recurs in late-April ’22, when another multi-month low is more likely.)
That low fulfilled a ~3-year high (Sept ’12) – low (Sept ’15) – low (Sept ’18) – low (Sept ’21) Cycle Progression and perpetuated an 18-month low-low cycle – creating lows in Sept ’15, Mar ’17, Sept ’18 & Mar ’20 while projecting another for late-Sept ’21.
At the same time, the XAU finally turned its monthly trend down – a lagging/confirming indicator that usually reverses as an initial sell-off is culminating. That portends a 1 – 2 month reactive bounce before the downtrend resumes (Nov. ’21).
A subsequent rally could last into Nov. ’21 when the XAU has a 5-month low-low-low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. Initial upside targets are at 136.54 – 137.25/XAU and 267 – 273.00/HUI with the most synergistic 1 – 2 month resistance at 141.88 – 144.51/XAU and 275.90 – 281.15/HUI.”
Gold & Silver as well as mining shares (XAU & HUI Indexes) fulfilled projections for sharp declines into late-Sept when weekly, monthly & yearly cycles bottomed and projected 3 – 6 month (or longer) lows… ushering in the time for a new rally into 1Q ’22. The XAU attacked 3 – 6 month and 6 – 12 month price support near 115.00/XAU – where a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom was most likely.
All these factors powerfully reinforce analysis for a major low in late-Sept ‘21! Gold & Silver should now see initial surges into (at least) 1840/GCZ & 25.00/SIH before new 1 – 2 month peaks would become likely/
How would high in Nov ’21 impact cycles in Jan & Feb ‘22?
What does this mean for the next multi-month cycle high in 1Q ’22??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.