Bitcoin Validating Projected ~65,000/BT Peak; Plunge to ~29,000/BT Likely!
04/21/21 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Bitcoin rallied to a decisive upside objective near 65,000/BT (65,000 – 66,800/BT) – a critical target on a 3 – 6 month & 6 – 12-month basis.
In doing so, Bitcoin precisely matched the magnitude of its previous rally (from March ’20 into Jan. ’21) during the current surge from mid-Jan. ‘21. From an Elliott Wave perspective, that would make the ‘5’ wave = the ‘3’ wave (the ‘1’ wave unfolded from Dec. ’18 into June ’19) and usher in an important peak.
If a multi-week top were signaled near 65,000/BT, it could trigger an overall correction back to ~29,000/BT – the 4th wave of lesser degree support (and also the 2021 intra-year low and support).
A daily close below 54,000/BTM is needed to signal a 1 – 3 week top while a weekly close below 46,000/BTM would signal a 1 – 3 month top…
Gold & Silver are fulfilling analysis for rallies into April 19 – 23 (Gold) and May 1 – 5 (Silver). In the past week, Gold has benefitted from the synergy of correlated (inversely) moves in the US Dollar and Bitcoin – both of which have been declining.
As described many times in the past, I view the battle between the Dollar, Gold & Bitcoin (crypto-currency) like a game of ‘Rock, Paper, Scissors’ where only one of the three can have a major rally at a time.
In many ways, it is a three-way battle for currency supremacy… although there are many nuances and other particulars that need to also be considered. I have also described it like an algebraic equation of ‘a + b = c’ where each factor needs to be adjusted – up or down – when one of the others is moving in a convincing trend.
In recent months, Bitcoin surged – keeping a lid on rallies in Gold and the Dollar. In the past few weeks, however, the Dollar & Bitcoin plateaued as Gold bottomed. The Dollar began to sell off and now Bitcoin is starting to do the same… leaving a narrow window of opportunity for Gold to rally.
There are other factors as well and I repeatedly warn AGAINST trading any market based solely on correlations or expected correlations. Each market has its own governing factors and fundamentals as well. And the peaks and troughs rarely occur at the exact same time.
The Dollar may have already bottomed (which remains to be seen) but as long as it does not rally sharply, Gold would still have room to rally. The same is true when Bitcoin is factored into the equation.”
Bitcoin fulfilled ongoing analysis for a surge to ~65,000/BT, where a multi-month peak has been forecast. That should trigger a drop back to ~29,000/BT – its 4th wave of lesser degree support and what is now considered the most decisive level of 6 – 12 month and 1 – 2 year support. If it can test that downside target in the coming months, Bitcoin would likely set a 3 – 6 month bottom near there.
What could 2021/2022 outlook for Dollar & Gold mean for the future of cryptos?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.