XAU & HUI Indexes (Mining Shares) Showing Greater Strength Than Gold & Silver.
03/23/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “The markets are passing through an annual period of transition. For those that view the calendar from a ‘natural’ standpoint (as most agrarian or agricultural-based societies do), this period is the 1st month of the Natural Year in the N. Hemisphere – beginning with the vernal equinox (March 20, 2022).
If one were to begin a calendar on the vernal equinox (start of the Natural Year), the first month of that year would end on April 19/20th. It would be the ‘opening range’ for that Natural Year; a pivotal and determining factor for the ensuing intra-year trend. Why?
The Sun governs our seasons (and a good part of our lives), which are measured by the solstices and equinoxes. This has been true in agrarian (farming-based) societies for thousands of years. It has been true in civilizations that worshipped the Sun (and established their calendars based on that focus) – much of which is still prevalent in our calendar.
As such, the vernal equinox starts the clock on the ‘opening range’ of each Natural Year.
It is when the northern half of the earth transitions from seasonal ‘death’ to ‘life’. In the old days, it was also when ‘kings went off to war’ (coming back to life just in time to go perpetrate death). Is it any surprise that the latest war was triggered as soon as the Earth was conducive to a massive ground invasion?
From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year. This is similar to how I treat the first 3 weeks – and month – of the calendar year, the first 3 trading days of each month, and the first day of the week.
Once that opening range (first 30 days) of the Natural Year is complete, you have resistance and support for the entire period – both when the market is trading in that range AND once it has broken out of it.
You also have an important gauge of trend for that year (if the market is trading above that range, it is in an uptrend on an intra-year basis, etc.).
Emphasis on the Natural Year was more significant 100 years ago since the commodity markets were almost all agricultural. Mid-April was the time when ‘carry-over stocks’ were at their lowest and when planting conditions and expectations for the new crop year – or growing season – were becoming apparent.
But it is not just trading that is impacted…
This period – from March 20/21 to April 19/20th – marks a very important transition period linked to various means of measuring time with physical (natural), celestial (astronomy), metaphysical (astrology) and supernatural (Jewish & Christian commemorations) implications and influences.
It is a time to watch each year for signs of ‘change’.
In many ways, April 19/20th acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming (Natural) year. As I have discussed for the past three decades, that time (surrounding April 19) is what I term the Date of Aggression.
Is it any surprise that so many weekly & monthly cycles are converging in the stock market on April 18 – 22, ’22 and portending an important peak.
If that is fulfilled, those highs would take on even greater significance due to their role within the opening range of the Natural Year… and the link to the Date of Aggression.
From a market perspective, the year of 2020 provided perfect fulfillment of this Natural Year shift with the entire stock market, most metals and many commodities bottoming on March 18 – 23, 2020 and beginning new bull markets from there.
That was due to the synergy of many corresponding and corroborating cycles and timing indicators all projecting the same thing. The 2-Year Cycle could help spur an initial rally into mid-to-late-April.
In 2021, stocks began a second intra-year rally in late-March and the originating lows became pivotal support that was tested multiple times in some indexes (like DJTA & Russell 2000)…
Gold & Silver corrected sharply and have since consolidated after fulfilling expectations for a surge into March 7 – 11, when a multi-week peak was most likely. Gold fulfilled an 11 – 12 week high-low-low-high Cycle Sequence as well as a corroborating 6-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and ~3-week low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression with that high.
It also precisely fulfilled a 41 – 42 day low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression (that projects a future intermediate peak for April 18/19 – the Date of Aggression, among other things). That validates the opening discussion related to the first month of the Natural Year.
On March 8, Gold surged to new highs and its weekly LHR (the extreme weekly upside target for March 7 – 11) at 2071.2/GCJ, fulfilling the potential for an accelerated surge into an initial peak and topping almost precisely at its next range-trading target (2080.0/GC).
All of that is why Gold’s peak could hold longer than Silver’s. At the same time, Silver surged to its 2022 range-trading target – a series of swings that have remained well-defined since early-Jan – with 27.50/SIK representing the latest upside target (see page 1).
When Silver peaked, it completed successive advances of equal duration (5 weeks each; Dec 15 – Jan 20 & Feb 3 – Mar 8).
Both metals dropped into mid-month and back to their month-opening lows without turning their daily trends down. As long as that remains the case, Gold & Silver should see another rally into late-month (and the midpoint of Gold’s ~42-day cycle – on March 29).
If Silver extends its rally into March 25 – April 1, it would perpetuate a ~10-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression as well as a 35 – 36 day low (Dec 15) – high (Jan 20) – high (Feb 24) – (high; March 31/April 1) Cycle Progression.
The XAU & HUI remain relatively stronger and only retraced to their rising daily 21 High MACs – remaining above those averages and in a more positive structure that should propel them to new (multi-year?) highs in the coming days/weeks.
They bottomed 3 months/90 degrees from their mid-Dec ’21 low, after retracing for the same amount of time as they did in late-Jan (wave equality) and precisely at those key support levels – reinforcing their unfolding uptrends and projecting a new wave higher, which is likely the 5th wave of a 5-wave advance from mid-Dec.
They are still likely to spike higher… Critical targets remain at xxx – xxx/XAU & xxx – xxx/HUI [reserved for subscribers]. The XAU corroborated that with last week’s low…
Platinum & Palladium are weaker on a near-term basis after Platinum fulfilled weekly & monthly cycles with its early-March ’22 peak – completing a 12-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and corroborating 6-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression. They are likely to bounce to divergent (lower) highs into late-March.”
Gold & Silver fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlooks for sharp rallies into late-Feb/early-March ’22 and peaked – along with a myriad of cycle highs – on March 8. Those highs, particularly in Gold, project a future multi-week peak for April 18/19 as part of the overall outlook for 2022.
Silver is fulfilling monthly cycles that projected a strong rally from late-Sept ’21 into a pivotal high in March ’22 – the latest phase of its ~6-month Cycle Progression and a possible precursor to a more significant peak in ~Sept ’22 (6 months later). XAU & HUI cycles initially peaked on March 7/8 ’22 but are showing more relative strength than the actual metals and are expected to rally to new intra-year or multi-year highs in the coming weeks. Copper is fulfilling multi-year upside objectives and could peak in March ’22. Platinum & Palladium are confirming their March ’22 peaks.
What Do Precious Metals Cycles & War Cycles Portend for 2022 (into 2025)?
What Does Developing Divergence Between Metals & Mining Shares Project?
How Could Solar & Seismic Cycles Impact Metals in 2022/2023??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.