Gold, Silver, Solar & Seismic Cycles Collide in 2022!
03/31/22 INSIIDE Track – “One of the underlying factors involved in the dramatic events of March 2020 – March 2022 (a period of two ‘Natural Years’) is the developing Solar Cycle. As documented many times before, there has been an uncanny sequence of related events on a roughly 11-Year Cycle basis – the same cycle that governs the ebb and flow of sunspots and solar storms.
In the March ‘19 INSIIDE Track, this cycle was again examined and was used to forecast a new ‘Global-Shaping Event’ that would emerge in late-2019/early-2020 and lead to a ‘Stock Panic’ in early-2020.
It is easy to now see that global shaping event, which triggered a major stock panic, was Covid-19.
It is the other part of that conversation, however, that is now coming to fruition. In that analysis, INSIIDE Track discussed how the initial economic events of that ~11-Year Cycle were often and increasingly leading to military conflicts in the ensuing years.
More importantly, from a longer-term perspective, that analysis concluded that each phase was pushing Russia and China closer together with an ‘enemy of my enemy is my friend’ mentality even as the global order was going through consistent upheaval within 2 – 3 years of the initial 11-Year Cycle event.
~11-Year Cycle of Stock Panics
In 1987, rising interest rates led to a global stock crash. 2 – 3 years later, Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait triggered the Persian Gulf War and shifted or solidified the global order.
In 1997 & 1998, the Asian Financial Crisis was followed by the Russian Ruble Crisis and soon followed by the events of 9/11, which shifted or solidified the global order.
In 2008 – 2009, the subprime triggered real estate and stock market meltdown was soon followed by the Arab Spring that shifted or solidified the global order.
In 2019 – 2020, a global-shaping event and stock market panic was projected to usher in War Cycles beginning in late-2021 (and stretching through 2025 – the same time that scientists now project the peak of Solar Cycle 25) – a period of anticipated military conflict that was forecast to push Russia & China closer together and shift or solidify the global order.
The following is an excerpt of that analysis, which paved the way for expectations and events from late-2019 into 2022 and ultimately into late-2025…[refer to April ’22 INSIIDE Track for details]
As stated back then, this equity panic was expected to usher in War Cycles in late-2021 and extend into 2025 – with Russia and China being spurred into an alliance of convenience. The events of Nov ’21 – Mar ’22 have powerfully validated that… but are likely only the first conflict in this very tenuous cycle.
Solar & Earth-Based Instability
Those War Cycles were forecast to coincide with (and be very closely linked to) a surprisingly disruptive Solar Cycle (#25) from late-2019 into 2025 – leading to intensifying earth instability in the form of earthquakes and then volcanoes.
As described for several years, 2021/2022 was the time when Earthquake Swarm Cycles had their greatest synergy while 2022 – 2024 was when Volcano Swarm Cycles converged.
40-Year Cycles
While there are always volcanoes erupting (or in an eruptive phase) at some point around the globe, these cycles focus on the times when a larger swarm of more significant eruptions occur.
The coming years (2022 – 2025) are when several longer-term Volcanic Swarm Cycles overlap, including a 40-Year, 70-Year, 80-Year and 120-Year Cycle. The following is just a small sampling of the volcanoes included in the 40-Year Cycle analysis…[refer to April ’22 INSIIDE Track for details]…
Gold & Silver extended their rallies, in blow-off fashion, into a decisive peak on March 8 – fulfilling multiple weekly cycles in Gold and ushering in a multi-week peak. While surging into the week of March 7 – 11, Gold fulfilled an 11 – 12 week high-low-low-high Cycle Sequence, a corroborating 6-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and a ~3-week low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression.
That was/is expected to lead to a subsequent peak around April 18/19 (the Date of Aggression and the culmination of the first ‘month’ of the new Natural Year) – the next phase of the 41 – 42 day (~6-week) low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the March 8 high.
At the same time, Silver fulfilled its ~6-month high (Sept ’19) – low (Mar ’20) – low (Sept ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – low (Sept ’21) – high (Mar ’22) Cycle Progression. – the same cycle that helped pinpoint the Sept ’21 low – a 6 – 12 month low that could hold throughout the remainder of 2022.
On a broader basis, this corroborates the potential for another decisive peak in Aug/Sept ‘22. In the interim, some key objectives (time and price) were fulfilled with the early-March ‘22 peak. For starters, there is the sequence of range-trading targets that were illustrated in the accompanying chart from early-Sept ’21 (see page 8).
In that chart, the uncanny sequence of ~80.0/GC trading ranges was illustrated – reinforcing ongoing analysis (at that time) for Gold’s March ’21 bottom to hold (~1680/GC) and to propel a 4Q’21/1Q ’22 rally back to 1920/GC and ultimately back to the high near 2080/GC. On March 8, ’22, Gold peaked at 2082/GCM, attacking this upper range target while retesting the Aug ’20 peak.
That has triggered some profit-taking (selling), in sync with weekly cycles that peaked at that time, but Gold is expected to ultimately exceed that critical resistance and surge to subsequent targets. That is also in line with the perceived wave structure in Gold – which has been projecting a surge to new highs since its double-bottom in March & Sept ‘21.
The Aug ’20 – Mar ’21 decline had all the earmarks of a wave ‘4’ correction, prior to a wave ‘5’ finale (which began in March ’21). In late-Sept ’21, major cycle lows corroborated, creating a divergent bottom with Silver, Platinum, XAU and HUI all setting lower lows while Gold held at/above its March ’21 low.
A final divergent low occurred in mid-Dec, with Platinum & Palladium setting new lows as other metals held, and that confirmed a more significant bottom with Gold & Silver poised to enter stronger advances in 1Q ‘22…
The XAU & HUI fulfilled analysis to extend their latest intermediate rallies into early-March ‘22 and fulfill a 41-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression, an 11-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression, a 22-week advance (2xs the prior 11-week advance) and a 5 – 6 week low-low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
By stretching their rallies into March 8, these indexes exceeded the duration of their previous Dec/Jan rallies, confirming developing strength and projecting another rally to new highs after a moderate pullback. That pullback mirrored the corrections of late-Jan – in time and price – providing a reinforcing wave structure that also projects a surge to new highs in April.
Critical targets remain at [reserved for subscribers]…
On balance, these indexes and mining shares could move progressively higher into Aug/Sept ‘22.
Platinum did see another surge in March, spiking up to 6 – 12 month resistance near 1150/PL and then plunging into late-March – matching the magnitude of its previous Nov/Dec ‘21 decline…
Palladium surged to new highs and to major upside targets (3100 – 3300/PA) as it simultaneously reached monthly and weekly extreme upside targets (LHRs) and a range-trading target developed by its initial Dec/Jan rally. That rally (~1550 – ~2450/PAM) created a monthly LHR and range-trading target at ~3350/PAM – right where Palladium peaked.
It has since dropped back to the 4th wave of lesser degree while twice neutralizing its weekly uptrend and plunging precisely to its rising weekly 21 Low MAC. That convergence of support is likely to hold and should spur a new advance. Until a weekly close below 2025/PAM, the 3 – 6 month trend is up.
The action of 1Q ’22 validated analysis for a 6 – 12-month bottom in Dec ’21, when it completed successive declines of equal magnitude (~1,400/PA drops in Feb/Mar ’20 and in May – Dec ’21) while again holding its previous (Mar ’19) high near 1600/PA – a key level of resistance turned into support.
At the time, Palladium retraced to its multi-year 4th wave of lesser degree support – the low of March ’20 that preceded the culminating wave ’5’ rally into May ’21 (that 5-wave sequence began in Jan ’16). That level was both the primary downside objective for that correction AND the support from which a new advance could take hold – rallying back to (at least) that previous peak near 3000.0/PA.
Since that objective has already been met, a few months of volatile congestion are more likely.
On a 1 – 2 year basis, [reserved for subscribers]…
Copper precisely fulfilled what has long been forecast as the outlook for the final phase(s) of a ~2-year bull market – spiking higher into 1Q ’22 (March ’22, when a 21 – 22-week high-high-high-high-high Cycle Progression recurred) and spiking above its high of 4.900/HGK. That has likely set a multi-month peak that could spur an initial correction into mid-April.”
Gold & Silver fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlooks for sharp rallies into late-Feb/early-March ’22 and peaked on March 8 – fulfilling daily & weekly cycles. At the time Gold retested its Aug ’20 major peak as Silver fulfilled a critical upside range-trading target (~27.50/SI) – reaching pivotal objectives and resistance levels. Those highs, particularly in Gold, project a future multi-week peak for April 18/19 as part of the overall outlook for 2022.
Silver fulfilled monthly cycles that projected a strong rally from late-Sept ’21 into a pivotal high in March ’22 – the latest phase of its ~6-month Cycle Progression and a possible precursor to a more significant peak in ~Sept ’22 (6 months later).
XAU & HUI cycles initially peaked on March 7/8 ’22 but are showing more relative strength than the actual metals and are expected to rally to new intra-year or multi-year highs in April ‘22. Copper fulfilled multi-year upside objectives and has initially peaked in March ’22. Platinum & Palladium are confirming their March ’22 peaks.
What Does Developing Divergence Between Metals & Mining Shares Portend?
How Will This Impact April 18/19 (Next) Cycle High?
How Could Solar & Seismic Cycles Impact Metals in 2022/2023??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.