Gold & Silver Begin New Advances? Initial Signals Triggered.
05/21/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver are attempting to rebound after fulfilling expectations for a ‘c’ wave decline, triggered after cycles peaked on April 18 (fulfilling the ~6-week/41 – 42-day low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression that projects a future high in late-May) and projected a second intermediate decline.
Looking ahead, the April 18 highs validated the next/future phase of both the ~6-week and the overriding ~12-week cycles – converging in late-May. (Ideally, the intervening decline was to last 26 – 28 days – into May 13/16 – and the ensuing rebound would last 14 – 16 days, a relationship of .500 or .618. So far, that is what has transpired.)
From a price perspective, that ‘c’ wave decline exceeded the magnitude of the ‘a’ wave decline – fulfilling its role as a form of ‘3’ wave and potentially reaching fruition. It also had Gold testing and initially holding its 2022 low – key intra-year support.
From an intermediate timing perspective, Gold’s weekly HLS pattern reinforced cycles and projected a 1 – 2 month low by/on May 16 – 20. Silver’s weekly trend pattern concurred. Those indicators have also been validated by recent action.
The recent low also fulfilled wave (timing) relationships. In 2021 & 2022, Gold experienced three multi-month declines. Each lasted 9 – 10 weeks (including this recent one). The real key is likely to remain the weekly trend. This indicator could have a strong bearing on the level of highs expected in Aug/Sept ‘22.
With the recent sell-off, Gold neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times but would not turn that trend down (and elevate its recent decline) until a weekly close below 1797.2/GCM.
If Gold can now turn its daily trend up (with a daily close above 1848.2/GCM), it would project an extended rally to ~1895/GCM where this May ’22 rally would equal the magnitude of the preceding Mar/Apr ’22 rally. Not surprisingly, it would also have Gold testing the level of the Mar ’22 low – a pivotal point of support turned into resistance…
In 2022, Gold & Silver were expected to set multi-month peaks in ~March & Aug/Sept ’22 with a sharp sell-off in between. Similar to expectations for late-Feb – early-Mar ’22, and also for July/Aug ’20, the majority of the price advances (leading into the cycle peaks) often occur during the final weeks of the cycle – the 90/10 Rule of Cycles.
As a result, another accelerated advance is likely in [reserved for subscribers]…
On an intra-year and 6 – 12 month basis, the XAU is trading similar to how it did in 2018/2019. At that time, the XAU bottomed in Sept. ’18, rallied into 1Q ’19, and then pulled back into May ’19 – retesting and even spiking below its Jan ’19 (intra-year) low before rallying to new intra-year highs in 3Q ‘19.
In 2021/2022, the XAU bottomed in Sept. ‘21, rallied into 1Q ’22, and then pulled back into May ’22 – nearing its Jan ’22 (intra-year) low. It has weekly & monthly cycles peaking in Aug/Sept ’22.
Platinum & Palladium have both tested and initially held Jan ’22 lows with Platinum bottoming near major support and then turning its daily trend up. Both are in a position where a new 1 – 3 week rally could take hold and lead to early-June highs.
Copper spiked down to 3 – 6 month support at 4.000 – 4.100/HG and could form a multi-week (or even multi-month) low near that range. It has twice neutralized its daily downtrend and now needs a daily close above 4.3275/HGN to turn that trend up.”
Gold, Silver & XAU/HUI Indexes have fulfilled downside objectives in price and time, stemming from their March 8 & April 18/19 cycle highs, and triggered initial buy signals – validating lows projected for May 13/16.
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Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.