Gold & Silver Poised for May 13/16 Low.
05/14/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver are fulfilling expectations for a ‘c’ wave decline after peaking on April 18/19 and fulfilling the latest phase of the ~6-week/41 – 42-day low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression that projects a future high in late-May.
The April 18 highs reinforced the next phase of both this ~6-week and the overriding ~12-week cycles – converging in late-May. (Ideally, the intervening decline would last 26 – 28 days – into May 13/16 – and the ensuing rebound would last 14 – 16 days, a relationship of .500 or .618.)
From a price perspective, that ‘c’ wave decline (which is a form of a ‘3’ wave – the usually-dynamic wave) should at least equal the magnitude of the ‘a’ wave decline. The ‘a’ wave in Gold lasted from March 8 into March 29 and from 2082/GCM to 1893.2/GCM – a decline of 188.8/GCM points.
With the ‘c’ wave beginning at 2003/GCM (the ‘b’ wave peak of April 18), it needed to drop to at least 1814.2/GCM – a decline of 188.8/GCM points. Gold is testing there now (on May 13 – the 25th day of this decline).
[A more dynamic ‘c’ wave decline would take Gold down to ~1762/GCM – where its ‘c’ wave decline would equal 1.272 xs the ‘a’ wave magnitude.]
From an intermediate timing perspective, Gold tested and held its weekly HLS (1870.2/GCM) on April 29. That projects a 1 – 2 month low to take hold – after additional downside – in the ensuing 1 – 3 weeks – at any time now. Its weekly trend pattern projects a low at any time, as well.
Silver concurs but from a different perspective… Wave relationships corroborate. In 2021 & 2022, Gold has now experienced three multi-month declines. Each has lasted 9 – 10 weeks. That also favors a low taking hold now (May 13 – 20).
The weekly trends could have a strong bearing on the level of highs expected in Aug/Sept ‘22 – when the next set of multi-month highs are expected… Similar to expectations for late-Feb – early-Mar ’22, and also for July/Aug ’20, the majority of these price advances often occur during the final weeks of the cycle – the 90/10 Rule of Cycles.
As a result, another accelerated advance is likely in [reserved for subscribers]… If a low is set by/on May 16 (fulfilling the intra-month downtrend)…
The XAU & HUI remain bearish after peaking in April while fulfilling a 29 – 31 week high-high-low-low-(high) Cycle Sequence – that has helped time most of the primary 3 – 6 month turning points of the past three years – and a ~10-month high (Aug ’20) – high (June ’21) – high (April ’22) Cycle Progression.
Both indexes, as well as Gold, dropped right back to their Jan ’22 lows (119.01/XAU & 236.37/HUI) – the decisive (make-or-break) level of intra-year trend support. They should not give weekly closes below those levels if any additional highs are to remain possible in 2022. If those levels hold, it would reinforce the potential for a second 2 – 3 month advance into 3Q ’22.
On an intra-year and 6 – 12 month basis, the XAU is trading similar to how it did in 2018/2019 and inversely to how it did last year. In 2018/2019, when a projected 2 – 3 year bull market was just starting, the XAU bottomed in Sept. ’18, rallied into 1Q ’19 and then pulled back into May ’19 – retesting and even spiking below its Jan ’19 (intra-year) low.
In 2021/2022, the XAU bottomed in Sept. ‘21, rallied into 1Q ‘22 and then pulled back into May ’22 – nearing its Jan ’22 (intra-year) low. Just as in 2019, that intra-year low needs to hold – on a weekly & monthly close basis – for the intra-year trend to remain constructive.
In 2019, the XAU went on to rally to new intra-year highs into Aug/Sept ’19. In 2022, the XAU has its next set of weekly & monthly cycles peaking in Aug/Sept ’22.
(2021 was the inverse with the XAU declining from Sept ’20 into 1Q ’21 and then rallying into May ’21. It then declined into Sept ’21. May has been a pivotal month in recent years.)
Platinum & Palladium are diverging with Platinum bottoming near major support and then turning its daily trend up, before pulling back. It needs a daily close above 987.0/PLN to turn the intra-month trend up and project another rally. Both have tested and initially held Jan ’22 lows.
Copper spiked down to 3 – 6 month support at 4.000 – 4.100/HG and could form a multi-week (or even multi-month) low near that range.”
Gold, Silver & XAU/HUI Indexes are fulfilling downside objectives, linked to their March 8 & April 18/19 cycle highs. All project decisive lows around May 13/16 and the onset of new uptrends.
Is a New (Greater) Buy Signal on Gold’s Horizon?
How High Could Impending Metals’ Rally Reach??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.