2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions: Watch Late-Jan Cycle Highs & Early-Feb Cycle Lows.
01-14-26 – Tech Topping Process Persists – “Stock Indices have entered the time when 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions portend a new set of 3 – 6-month peaks. The NQ-100 has been leading a topping process and is tracing out a weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence but is yet to produce the two most negative and convincing affirmations of that.
The other indexes are initially fulfilling ~2-Year & ~4-Year Cycle Progressions that converge in Jan ’26 – the ideal time for a new 3 – 6-month peak to take hold. The ~2-year cycle timed lows in Jan/ Feb ’14 & Jan/Feb ’16, after which 6 – 12-month advances unfolded. That Cycle Progression then inverted and timed successive 6 – 12-month (or longer) peaks in Jan/Feb 2018, 2020 & 2022.
An interim (~1-year) period – in Jan/Feb ’25 – timed another 3 – 6 month peak, after which stock indexes plunged in sync with their reinforcing 17-Year Cycle.
Jan/Feb ’26 – with the greatest synergy of related cycles in mid-to-late-January ’26 – is the latest recurrence of the ~1-Year, ~2-Year and the related ~4-Year Cycle Progressions.
On an intermediate basis, the NQ-100 needs to give a weekly close below its weekly 21 Low MAC (~24,800/NQH) to signal a higher-magnitude top is in place and to project a new drop into early-Feb ’26. That would fulfill a 10 – 11-week low-low-low-low Cycle Progression and a 50% retracement in time.
Just as it has an ~11-week Cycle Progression timing successive lows, the NQ-100 also has an ~11-week high (May ’25) – high (Aug 11 – 15) – high (Oct 27 – 31, ‘25) – (high; Jan 12 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression that was expected to time a lower high to begin this week. The corresponding 75 – 77-day Cycle Progression peaked on January 12 – 14th, ’26.
A spike high on January 12th would also (and did) fulfill a 26-day low (Nov 21) – low (Dec 17) – (high; Jan 12th) Cycle Progression. The S+P 500 concurred.
It has set a 1 – 2-week (or longer) peak every ~10 trading days since its Oct 28/29th high. The latest phase was on Jan 12/13th and was/is expected to time another high. That is what took place.
While setting the Jan 12/13th high, the Nasdaq-100 attacked its monthly resistance zone – the upside price target for the intra-month uptrend it generated on January 7th – and retreated. That kept it from closing above 25,996/NQH – a type of ‘failure’ that could help time an intervening peak… and further reinforce its late-Oct ’25 top.
Equally important, the NQ-100 peaked below the level of its Dec 10th high – the previous peak that perpetuated a ~28 trading day Cycle Progression that was/is expected to produce an opposing (1 – 2 week) low around Jan 22, ’26 (see HCP diagram above).
The interesting thing about the latest high is it sets the NQ-100 up to repeat the action seen after that Dec 10th high…
At the time, the Nasdaq 100 dropped sharply during the subsequent 5 trading days… and set a low on Dec 17th. If the current market does the same (‘c’ = ‘a’ wave decline), it would drop into Jan 21, ’26… 1 day before the Jan 22, ’26 Cycle Progression low and 2 months/60 degrees from the Nov 21, ’25 low.
A daily close below 25,420/NQH is needed to provide initial confirmation. [The NQ-100 is likely to set a series of lows around Jan 21/22, Feb 6/9, and Feb 19 – 22, ’26, based on corroborating daily & weekly Cycle Progressions. Price action will need to validate that potential.]
That index continues to be treated as a bellwether, leading the current transition instead of lagging it (as it has done in the past)…
The NQ-100 set a multi-month peak in late-Oct ’25 – fulfilling a myriad of daily, weekly, monthly and even multi-year cycles and timing objectives.
On a multi-year basis, that Oct ’25 peak completed the 5th ~3-year advance (since the March ‘09 low) – fulfilling an intriguing series of bull market (wave timing) symmetry with successive rallies in:
- March 2009 – March 2012
- June 2012 – July 2015
- August 2015 – August 2018
- Dec 2018 – Nov 2021
- October 2022 – October 2025
Reinforcing those yearly/monthly ‘cycles’, the NQ-100 reached the extreme of its 33 – 36-week low (Mar ’23) – low (Oct ‘23) – high (July ‘24) – high (Feb ‘25) – (high; Oct 20 – 31, ’25) Cycle Progression as it was setting that peak. (The midpoint of the latest phase comes into play in late-Feb/early-March ’26 and should be watched closely… potentially for a secondary high.)
It would need to turn the weekly trend down – which cannot occur until [reserved for subscribers] – in order to validate those timing indicators and signal a higher-magnitude decline.
On Nov 20th, the NQ-100 closed below its Oct 10th low – triggering the first technical price signal that was needed to validate the Oct 28/29th cycle peak and signal a multi-month reversal lower. Now it needs a daily AND weekly close below its Nov 21st low (24,152/NQH) to elevate this decline and further validate its late-Oct ’25 peak.
A significant convergence of weekly timing indicators – including a 10 – 11-week low-low-low-low Cycle Progression and a 50% retracement in time (28 – 29 weeks up, 14 – 15 weeks down) come into play on February 2 – 9, 2026… the culmination of the first 40-day (‘testing’) period of the new year.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are fulfilling a myriad of multi-month & multi-year Cycle Progressions that project multi-month peaks to take hold in Jan/Feb ’26 and usher in new declines. The NQ-100 fulfilled multi-year upside objectives (timing & price) in late-Oct ’25 and set a likely 6 – 12-month peak at that time.
Other indexes are expected to set final highs in 1Q ’26 – some in January ’26 and others in February ’26 – as this overall topping process unfolds. Intermediate lows are projected for the days surrounding February 6/9th & March 6/9th, ’26… as part of this overall sequence. The NQ-100 is projected to set a series of 1 – 2 week lows on Jan 21/22nd, Feb 6/9, Feb 19/22 & March 6/9, ’26 as part of this process.
How Would NQ-100 Confirm Late-Oct ’25 Cycle Peak?
Why is S+P 500 Projecting Late-Jan ’26 Peak?
What Would Validate ‘Eerie Parallel’ Scenario?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.