How 2-Year Cycle Fulfillment Reaffirms Overall Outlook for 4Q 2018.
How 2-Year Cycle Fulfillment Reaffirms Overall Outlook for 4Q 2018.
Wk Resistance: 2800.0 – 2806.0/ESZ 25,817 – 25,998/DJIA 7210.0 – 7261.0/NQZ
11/03/18 – Weekly Re-Lay: Stock Indices fulfilled analysis for a spike low and reversal higher – after reaching extreme downside targets and completing the projecting October plunge (based on the 2-Year Cycle) in late-Oct. The initial rebound was expected to last into at least Nov. 2, but a larger-degree rally could unfold IF the daily trends reverse up – ideally peaking in late-Nov. The coming days are likely to be volatile…
Stock Indices spiked lower on Oct. 29, attacking weekly support and extreme downside targets (23,913/DJIA, 2590/ESZ & 6650/NQZ) and held those levels, projecting a quick, sharp rebound into Nov. 2 and up to 25,561/DJIA, 2782/ESZ & 7210/NQZ. They have basically fulfilled that, ushering in a pivotal period for the 2 – 4 week trend.
Throughout the year, the outlook for 4Q 2018 has remained unchanged. Stock indexes were projected to see a sharp drop into late-Oct. followed by a rebound into late-Nov./early-Dec. So far, that scenario has unfolded on schedule. If that remains the case, another peak is likely later in Nov.
The DJIA has closely followed a ~7-week cycle all year. It’s initial drop lasted just over 7 weeks. It then created a 14-week low (Mar. 23) – low (June 25 – 29) – high (Oct. 1 – 5) Cycle Progression.
That second 14-week (low-high) move broke down into a 7-week low (June 25 – 29) – low (Aug. 13 – 17) – high (Oct. 1 – 5) Cycle Progression. If that follows a normal sequence and produces an ensuing high 7 weeks later (low-high-high Cycle Progression), the DJIA would set its next high on Nov. 19 – 23 – entering that late-Nov./early-Dec. time frame that has been in focus all year.
With the weekly trends turning down, and equities spiking lower on Oct. 29, they have entered the time when a 1 – 3 week rebound is most likely (since the weekly trend reversal is a lagging indicator that often times the culmination of an initial leg down). That could also spur a rebound into Nov. 19 – 23.
The earliest the weekly trend could turn back up (and most likely time for the next peak) is Nov. 23.
The more likely pattern is the indexes neutralize their weekly downtrends twice (on Nov. 9 & 16), then spike higher & reverse lower on Nov. 19 – 23, without turning those weekly trends up. The weekly trends would not turn neutral until weekly closes above 25,580/DJIA, 2786.5/ESZ & 7225/NQZ.”
Equities have confirmed a late-Oct. ’18 cycle low after fulfilling projections for an uncanny 2-Year Cycle plunge (10 – 15%) in October 2018. The price action of Oct. 26 & 29 fulfilled a myriad of downside objectives and projected the onset of a multi-week rally, with an initial surge into Nov. 5 – 9 likely. Depending on price action of coming week, that rally could extend into Nov. 19 – 23.
Regardless of what the coming weeks produce, the real intriguing part is what could unfold in late-2018/early-2019. Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.