Bitcoin Cycles Remain Negative; Reinforce Dec. ’18 Cycle Low.
Bitcoin Cycles Remain Negative; Reinforce Dec. ’18 Cycle Low.
10/17/18 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – The 15 – 17 Week Cycle: “One of the most common intermediate cycles in the markets is a 15 – 17 Week Cycle. At times, it shortens to 15 – 16 weeks and adheres to that rhythm through multiple phases.
At other times, it lengthens slightly – to 16 – 17 weeks, and repeats at that interval. When it is holding to that latter frequency, it is roughly a 4-month – or 120-degree – cycle. At times, there are even competing ~4-month cycles within a single market – governing opposing highs and lows or even timing staggered highs & lows that overlap each other.
When doubled, this becomes a 7.5 – 8-month cycle. That has been cited in numerous markets, including certain equity indexes that produced lows in Feb. ’16, Oct. ’16, June ’17 & early-Feb. ’18 before an ~8-month rally into early-Oct. ’18,
Doubled again, it produces a 15 – 16-month cycle. That largest cycle is one that has been repeatedly observed and discussed in equity markets, energy markets, interest rate and currency markets and even several commodities.
A perfect example is the ~16-month low-low-(high) Cycle Progression that has unfolded in Crude – timing lows in Feb. ’16 & June ’17 followed by a ~16-month advance into early-Oct. ’18. That ~16-month advance broke down into an ~8-month low (June ’17) – low (Feb. ’18) – high (Oct. ’18) Cycle Progression.
The shorter (~4-month) phase has been discussed in everything from Gold & Silver (leading into and out of their late-2015 bottom and in the years since then) to Bitcoin to Crude Oil to Bonds & Notes.”
Bitcoin is still holding above 3 – 6 month support at 5,500 – 5,800, but increasing the potential it could ultimately & imminently be broken. If/when that occurs, ~3,200 becomes the next downside target (see July 13, 2018 The Bridge).
Cycles portend the next important bottom between late-Nov. – mid-Dec. 2018. Among other things, that would be the next phase of a ~4-month low-low cycle that most recently timed lows in the first half of April ’18 and the first half of Aug. ’18. The first half of Dec. ’18 is the next phase of that and would also arrive ~12 months (3 xs ~4-month or ~17-week cycle) from the mid-Dec. ’17 peak.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.