Bitcoin Retests Crucial Support; Could It Ultimately Be Broken?
08/30/18 INSIIDE Track: “Bitcoin continues to hold 6 – 12 month support (its primary ~6 month downside target since mid-Dec.) – bottoming right at the level of its Nov. 12 ’17 low (4th wave of lesser degree support) around 5,850.
After fhe first test of that support, Bitcoin surged to its extreme upside target for July 2018 (monthly LHR at 8,482) and peaked, while twice neutralizing its weekly downtrend. That ultimately led to a retest of support, bottoming around 5,900.
As previously illustrated, Bitcoin has adhered to an approximate 8-week cycle since early-2017 and bottomed in line with that cycle in late-June. That projected a subsequent low for the second half of Aug. – about 8 weeks later…
Bitcoin spiked down to 5,900 on Aug. 14 – creating a 50 – 51-day high (May 5) – low (June 24) – low Cycle Progression while arriving in the second week after the weekly HLS was tested – and has been slowly advancing since then. It will not, however, confirm another 1 – 2 month bottom until a daily and weekly close above 7,500…
Bitcoin has what could be its most significant cycle peak (for 2018) coming into play in late-Sept. 2018. That is the latest phase of a 38 – 42-week/~9-month (~270-degree) low (late-Aug. ‘15) – high (Jun. ‘16) – high (Mar. ’17) – high (Dec. ’17) – (high; Sept. ‘18) Cycle Progression, a 50% rebound in time, and a 20 – 21-week low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression – with the greatest synergy converging during the weeks of Sept. 16 – 29.”
Bitcoin retested 3 – 6 month support at 5,500 – 5,800, increasing the potential it could ultimately be broken to the downside. However, cycles might provide a reprieve from this selling until late-Sept. If 5,500 is ultimately broken, ~3,200 becomes the next downside target (see July 13, 2018 The Bridge). Bitcoin’s ~21-Week (144-day) low – low – low – low Cycle Progression – that helped pinpoint its late-June ’18 low – comes back into play in late-Nov. 2018 with geometric cycles potentially stretching a bottom into mid-Dec. 2018 – 360 degrees from the Dec. ’17 peak.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.