Bottoming Signs & Cycles; S+P Projects Surge Above 4300/ES.
01/05/23 INSIIDE Track – “Outlook 2023 – The Year of Disruptions?
2022 fulfilled a myriad of cycle projections – including a major top and sell-off in the stock market, a crypto meltdown, skyrocketing inflation & interest rates, a culminating surge in the US Dollar (potentially stretching into 2023), the onset of an 80-Year Cycle of War, and the shift to a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars. Overlapping & reinforcing these expectations has been the latest upturn in the approximate 11.2-Year Solar/Sunspot Cycle.
Though it is rarely given sufficient credit, the Solar Cycle is one of the most impactful cycles on our world. Along with related cycles, that Solar Cycle was/is forecast to trigger at least three major natural events in 2023/2024…
— Major Solar Storm in 2023
— Strong uptick in volcanic eruptions in 2022 – 2024.
— Surprising shift in drought/flood cycles for the Western US (particularly CA) in late-2022 – late-2024.
Climate Cycles
In 2022, INSIIDE Track reiterated why – in stark contrast to the calls for escalating drought in CA and the West US – cycles were arguing for not just one but two consecutive years of greatly-increased precipitation in 2022/23 & 2023/24.
That was coming on the heels of the culmination of the latest 40-Year Cycle of Climate & Food Crises – in 2021/2022 – when a MAJOR climatological shift was on track to take hold. That had been discussed throughout the 2010’s and was forecast to reach a crescendo as food prices escalated and global temps experienced a final warming into 2021/2022… before a dramatic shift takes hold in 2022/23 and beyond.
That would repeat a pattern seen in 1976 – 1981/82 when the previous drought cycle was culminating and in 1936 – 1941 when the Dust Bowl was signaling the culmination of the previous Drought Cycle. Prior to that, 1895 – 1901/02 timed the Federation Drought in Australia – the transition of previous Drought Cycles. And prior to that, the biggest impact of the Civil War Drought took place in 1855 – 1862.
In each case, a final multi-year drought (and usually warming) period began in the ‘5’ or ‘6’ year of the preceding decade (1855, 1895, 1935/36, 1976 & 2016) and stretched into the ‘’2’ year of the ensuing decade – when abundant precipitation usually timed the shift of that 40-Year Cycle (1862, 1902, 1942, 1982/83 & 2022/23??) and the end of the Drought Cycle.
That dovetailed with previous discussions on longer-term cycles of drought that had forecast West Coast rains/floods in 2017 followed by a final global warm-up and drought into 2021/2022… before a deluge was forecast to occur in 2022/23 & 2023/24. The most recent discussion of this explained the following:
10-29-22 – “In the mid-2010’s, INSIIDE Track described a convergence of longer-term climate cycles portending a culminating global warming in the late-2010’s and early-2020’s – leading into a multi-year peak. [NOTE: I am NOT a climatologist or meteorologist. This conjecture is simply based on cycle analysis.]
After a couple decades of fairly level global temperatures, the late-2010’s/early-2020’s fulfilled that outlook. That is also when a Food Crisis was forecast to take hold – driving the price of grains and other commodities substantially higher. 2023/24 is when cycles project a bit of a shift after reaching new extremes. One of those shifts could be seen in the West (as goes CA, so goes the US??)…
Based on analysis of a consistent 6-Year Cycle, a Sunspot-related 11 – 12-Year Cycle and a ~40-Year Cycle, I expect California and other parts of the West to see an abrupt turnaround in precipitation during the 2022-23 & 2023-24 rainy seasons (’water years’).
In recent decades, heavy rain years arrived in 2017 (highest total since records began), 2011, 2005, 1998, & 1993. 6, 12, 18, 24 & 30 years from those spikes pinpoint 2022/23 as a prime candidate for increased precipitation – based on a 6-Year Cycle.
Looking back over the past ~80 years, the water years of 1941, 1952, 1963, 1974, 1986, 1998 & 2011 produced surges in precipitation – averaging about 35% above the annual average amount.
2022/23 & 2023/24 are the next phase in this ~11/12-Year Cycle.
That is also when a 40-Year Cycle comes back into play – linked to increased rainfall in the early-1900’s, early-1940’s & early-1980’s, following extreme dry years in each of the preceding decades.
Following the 1976 year of extreme drought, 1982 – 83 saw consecutive water years of extreme precipitation – combining to create the greatest 2-year period of rain since records began in the late-1890’s.
Could 2022/23 or 2023/24 repeat this pattern and perpetuate that 40-Year Cycle?
Related El Nino cycles focus on 2023/24 for another chance for increased precipitation… based on cycle analysis. That is another factor in this analysis.
Since 2023 is the year with the greatest synergy of cycles related to major solar storms, the next 12 – 18 months could see some abrupt shifts in climate-related events…”
This was being written at the same time mainstream weather & climatologists were warning about a ‘drier than normal’ winter for CA in 2022/23 and the near certainty of escalating drought conditions:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/noaa-releases-california-winter-weather-predictions/
Anyone wanna guess what has transpired so far?
A majority of regions across the state – from NoCal to SoCal – are at 150 – 200% of normal with a sequence of ‘atmospheric rivers’ heading across the Pacific with reckless abandon… and a ’bomb cyclone’ soon arriving. Reservoirs are acting similarly as snowpack is also beginning to build… providing a powerful jumpstart to what cycles have been saying is highly likely in late-2022 – mid-2024.
This climate shift does NOT just impact CA or the West Coast and has been responsible for major storms tracking across the US this winter. More are likely to follow. And this is likely a symptom of a more dramatic climate shift… at least for the coming years. That is why it has been discussed.
One of the important points is that coincidence does not mean causality. Each of these expected and/or maturing events – as well as analysis for a Middle East shift in 2023 and a US Presidential ‘shocker’ – are all symptoms of a much larger, over-arching shift.
D.U.P.E. Update
Right on schedule, DUPE ’22 – the Date of Unifying Plans & Events (Dec 8) – provided another powerful affirmation to the unifications steadily taking hold over the past decade with China completing the latest move toward uniting the East against the West – an oil deal with Saudi Arabia & the Gulf Cooperation Council… to be facilitated in China’s Petroleum Exchange and priced in Yuan. Hmmm. Uh-oh, Dollar…
Stock Indices have been in a bottoming phase, creating a pair of divergent lows in mid-June & late-Sept/early-Oct ‘22 – setting the stage for a pair of escalating rallies, each projected to be greater than the preceding (2022) rallies. That would fulfill related 4-Shadow Signals and other corresponding indicators…
Bottoming Signs & Cycles
There are multiple signals that a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom took hold in many stocks in late-Sept ‘22. In most cases, this is not expected to lead to new multi-year highs (at any time soon). The DJIA might be the one exception.
Instead, the action of late-Sept just reinforced that an initial 6 – 9 month decline was likely complete and so a larger-magnitude (‘B’ wave) rally should follow. That was corroborated by the weekly trends turning up during the initial rallies into Dec ‘22 (the ‘a’ wave of that overall ‘B’ wave rebound)…
In the case of the S+P 500, it is setting up a convergence of upside targets and monthly resistance levels around 4300 – 4350/ES… … that could be tested before a ‘B’ wave rally is complete. That is where the mid-Aug ‘22 peak overlaps the July – Oct ‘21 lows (support turned into resistance) and is just below where the monthly 21 MAC is peaking and flattening…
From a general standpoint, that would perpetuate the parallels to 1973/74 that have been in focus.
In 1973/74, stocks experienced a dramatic sell-off with many stocks losing more than half of their value.
In 2022, that has already occurred in many leading ‘proxy’ stocks (NFLX, META, TSLA, AMZN, etc.).
Following the 1973/74 plunge, the DJIA rallied for a little more than 50% of the time it spent declining… and peaked below the high set in Jan ‘73.
Even though 1974 set a multi-decade low and began a multi-decade bull market, stocks did not exceed the 1973 peak until 10 years later. Their secondary peak (1976) and low (1978) created a smaller trading range (than the 1973/74 range).
With 2022 representing the culmination of a myriad of cycle highs in stocks and stock indexes (including 20-Year & 40-Year Cycle Progressions), many of those peaks are likely to hold for several years. So, we could be in for a few years of wide trading ranges.”
Stock indexes are fulfilling 4-Shadow Signals (triggered in 4Q ’22) that projected new surges in 1Q ’23. Indexes like the Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 are nearing their upside price targets (accomplishing what the DJIA did in 4Q ’22) while the NQ-100 and S+P 500 are projecting higher levels in the coming month(s) (to at least ~13,800/NQ & ~4300/ES) before their advances would have a better chance of peaking.
Those upside targets – and how/when they are reached – should reveal a great deal about what to expect leading into key cycles in late-July/early-Aug ’23.
What Did/Does 4Q ’22 4-Shadow Signal Portend for 1Q ‘23?
How High Could Latest Rallies Reach?
What Would Likely Follow Tests of ~13,800/NQ & ~4300/ES?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.