Correction in Stocks (& Gold) Likely to Last into August 20 – 22nd Before Pivotal Low.
08-16-25 – “Stock indexes remain in multi-month uptrends but are diverging at their highs after rallying into late-July. The DJTA triggered signs of a multi-week peak while the other indexes remain positive and rallied into mid-month. The DJIA has finally set new intraday highs, fulfilling the monthly trend signal generated at the early-April ’25 low… Gold & Silver are showing signs they could rally into late-August…
Stock indices remain divergent near their highs after failing to escalate initial declines (into Aug 1st). At that time, only the DJTA was able to turn its daily trend down and signal that a 2 – 4-week (or greater) top was intact. The other indexes needed daily closes below the Aug 1st lows to turn their daily trends down and signal something similar.
They failed to do that and subsequently turned their intra-month trends up and re-entered their daily uptrends – projecting rallies into mid-month and to monthly resistance levels.
That coincided with NQ-100 similarities to 4Q ’24… Recent action has seen the DJIA completely fulfill its monthly trend signal – from early-April ’25 – that projected a multi-month rally to new all-time highs. On an intraday basis, it reached that target in recent days. At the same time, the DJTA bounced to a lower high while the S+P Midcap retested its late-July ’25 cycle peak but did not give a weekly close above that level.
At least some of those indexes (DJTA & S+P Midcap for starters), maintain the potential to extend their corrective phases into August 20 – 22nd and to set new 1 – 2 month lows (below their Aug 1st lows) at that time.
An initial low at that time would reinforce future cycle lows in [reserved for subscribers]… the overall uptrends remain firmly intact…
Gold & Silver remain below their August 8th highs – highs that saw Gold retest its late-July high while Silver set a lower peak.
Both initially sold off after rallying into July 21 – 25th cycle highs and fulfilling ~5-week low-low-low-high-(high; July 21 – 25, ’25) Cycle Progressions with Gold setting a lower high as Silver fulfilled ongoing analysis for a surge to 39.50 – 40.10/SIU or higher.
Silver reached the primary 3 – 6 month upside ‘wave 5’ target while attacking 4 of the latest 5 monthly LHRs – a powerful convergence of extreme upside monthly targets. However, Silver is yet to confirm a multi-month peak – needing the weekly trend to turn down to do so.
That leaves open the potential for additional spike highs with the final week of August timing the next phase of the ~5-week Cycle Progression AND the latest phase of a ~22-week high-high-high-high-high-(
In the past week, Gold dropped right to its weekly HLS (3378/GCZ) while twice neutralizing its daily uptrend. It would not turn negative until a daily close below 3379.1/GCZ. Until that daily close materializes, Gold has left a small window of opportunity open – for a rally back to (at least) its August 8th high (3534/GCZ).
That level coincides with the weekly LHR (extreme upside target) for the coming week – at 3535/GCZ – so it should be watched carefully (particularly if a new rally begins to emerge).
A rally to that level – in either of the next two weeks – would create/fulfill a sequence of extremes I refer to as ‘ricochet’… Gold has remained in a weekly uptrend during its entire consolidation phase (since its late-April cycle peak) but keeps closing below and then above (and then below) its rising weekly 21 High MAC. This action also leaves open the potential for another brief rally…
Silver is having trouble selling off and needs a daily close below 37.50/ SIU to validate that recent (secondary) high.
In contrast, Silver remains in an intra-month uptrend and could turn its daily trend back up with a daily close above 38.76/SIU (which would also likely trigger a bullish 21 MAC signal). With Silver re-entering its weekly uptrend, the risk of a rally back to the highs remains substantial.
The XAU & HUI remain in overall uptrends with the XAU reaching its primary (minimum) upside target – on a 3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month basis – at ~233.00/XAU. They could easily spike up to their monthly LHRs (extreme upside targets for August ’25) at 506.21/HUI 240.61/XAU before a multi-week top takes hold.
These indexes have their 2025 yearly LHRs at 249.49/XAU & 511.76/HUI… not much higher than the monthly extremes. The XAU would not turn neutral until a daily close below 218.32.
Platinum & Palladium have sold off after fulfilling projections for decisive peaks on July 18 – 25th, taking hold immediately after Platinum reached its primary (but minimum) 6 – 12 month upside price target at ~1500/PL.
Platinum remains likely to drop to 1200/PLV, and potentially spike as low as 1130 – 1150/PLV, while Palladium remains targeted for ~1100/PAU.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are focused on August 20 – 22nd as the ideal time for the next intermediate low. That could trigger a new 2 – 4-week and possible 2 – 4-month advance (into late-2025/early-2026??) IF specific criteria are met in late-August & early-September. (Another 16 – 18-week rally – if it begins in late-August – would mature in late-2025 when more significant cycles peak.)
Monthly trend indicators are being reinforced by intra-year trends turning up in multiple indexes… providing another bullish factor into late-2025. The DJTA is showing greater (relative) weakness than any other index and could trade differently after the August 20 – 22nd cycle low.
Gold cycles bottom around the same time. Watch for 3Q/4Q ’25 rally into late-Oct/early-Nov ’25. Platinum & Palladium should also bottom in August ’25.
Why Should Stocks (& Gold) Bottom On/Around August 20 – 22nd?
Are New Multi-Month Rallies Likely to Begin in Late-August?
Do August ‘25 Platinum & Palladium Cycle Lows Corroborate?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.