Crude & Energy Markets Fulfilling Outlook for Massive 2026 Price Surge!
09-28-26 – “Outlook 2026/2027
One of the first signs of commodity inflation in the 2020’s – and the pervasive impact it would have on the economy – took place in 2020. In many instances, the final 9 months of 2020 triggered an inflationary run-up – in the cost of numerous commodities – that would spread like a contagion through the economy… not unlike the contagion that preceded it (Covid-19).
Inflation in Real Estate/Housing
If there is one facet of the economy that best demonstrates the presence of, and ramifications of, that inflation – it is residential real estate. The seeds for that were planted, watered, cultivated, and sprouted in April – December 2020… in lockstep with Jerome Powell’s stated & published wish for inflation.
This latest real estate/housing cycle began with lumber prices surging and more than tripling in price by Sept 2020. It is hard to forget the trips to local home improvement stores in 2020, only to be told there was a massive shortage of lumber and that prices of basics like 2x4s had risen astronomically.
It was a harbinger of things to come.
The (Lag) Process
Commodity price inflation, however, often takes time to move through the system – from origin/manufacturer to wholesale suppliers to retailers to consumers. In the case of housing, the real price surge did not begin until early-2021 (exacerbated by labor shortages)… and lasted into late-2022.
Though prices have continued to edge up since then – until recently – the overwhelming majority of the price surge was in the books before 2022 was complete. Not surprisingly, the runup in lumber prices peaked before mid-2021… but the reverberations had only just begun. Inflation had taken its foothold!
Commodity Inflation
Prices of many (most) commodities followed suit. Soybeans experienced an astronomical surge in price from April 2020 into January 2021… and ultimately into May ‘21. Though they would spike a little higher in 2022, the majority of the price inflation occurred in that first 12 – 13 months.
Corn was similar – surging ~150%.
Cotton more than doubled in price by Feb ‘21.
Unleaded Gas (futures) quintupled from their unrealistic March 2020 low into March 2021.
That was reflected in many gauges, including the GSCI – which surged from ~220 in April ‘20 to over 500 in Feb/March ‘21 – a similar move of almost 150%.
A second wave of commodity price inflation would follow in a domino-like manner… all linked to that 9 – 12-month period from April 2020 – Dec ‘20/April ‘21.
The (Initial) Peaking Process
By early-2022, that massive ~2-year surge in commodity prices had played out in the markets… but was only beginning to play out in the economy (and interest rates).
Over the ensuing ~3 years, the prices of many commodities receded with the GSCI peaking at ~853 in March ‘22 and then declining to ~492 into April ‘25. That completed a 50% retracement in price and set the stage for another major wave of inflation to follow – from a much higher plateau.
The Energy Driver
December ‘25 timed a secondary low and was forecast repeatedly to usher in an extremely-inflationary 2026 – with energy prices leading the way (see 4Q ‘25 & 1Q ‘26 issues of INSIIDE Track).
Since that time, INSIIDE Track has detailed – and repeatedly stressed – why cycles projected a 12 – 18-month surge in the GSCI (commodity inflation index) – initially surging into March/April ‘26, then Sept/Oct ‘26, and finally into April/May ‘27. Back then, few could imagine the oil surge to follow.
The Paradox
Most inter-market correlations have a limit. A leading market will significantly influence a lagging/following market… up to a point. At some point, however, the leader stretches to an extreme and ‘crosses the Rubicon’ – often spooking the lagging market as a result. In the past, this has been seen in Bonds & Stocks, in the US Dollar & Stocks, etc.
Cycles & multi-year Cycle Progressions suggest the same is likely for [reserved for subscribers]…“ TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!!
Crude & the products (Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil) continue to fulfill late-2025 & early-2026 projections for a massive rally in 2026, possibly stretching into 2Q 2027. The GSCI (heavily weighted in energy) corroborated that, projecting an initial surge – from mid-Dec ’25 into mid-April ’26 – and then a second surge into mid-Oct ’26… as part of an over-arching advance from 3Q ’25 into 2Q 2027.
On an intermediate basis, Crude and the products fulfilled projections for the latest surge to peak in ~mid-Sept ’26 as a series of progressive peaks… and are poised to set a subsequent low in early-Oct ’26. That should spur a new surge into Oct 23 – 30, ’26 when a powerful convergence of weekly Cycle Progressions – including the next phase of that unique ~40-day/~6-week Cycle Progression – align… and could/should time a 1 – 2-month peak.
Late-Oct/early-Nov ’26 is the ideal time for a blow-off peak that would corroborate future (2027) cycle highs, including related GSCI cycles in 1Q & 2Q ‘27.
17-Year Cycle: Energy & Equity Opposing Extremes
17-Year Cycle: Inflation’s Next Surge (into April/May ’26)
17-Year Cycle: Stocks, Stagflation & Housing
17-Year Cycle & Inflation II …and a Stock Market Low
See current Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for the most updated analysis.