Crude Reinforcing Sept. ’18 (Multi-Year) Cycle Highs! Project Future High for May ’19.
Crude Reinforcing Sept. ’18 (Multi-Year) Cycle Highs! Project Future High for May ’19.
11/29/18 INSIIDE Track: Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil have plummeted since fulfilling a powerful convergence of cycles in late-3Q 2018. Late-Sept. ‘18 ushered in a projected shift in Middle East cycles and coincided with weekly, monthly, yearly and multi-decade cycles in Crude – all colliding between late-Aug. – early-Oct. 2018.
At the time, Crude attacked its 2018 upside target (75.00 – 77.30/CL; most synergistic at 76.45 – 77.05/CL) – peaking at 76.90/CLX, while fulfilling a ~16-month low (Feb. ‘16) – low (Jun. ‘17) – high (Oct. ‘18) Cycle Progression. That ~16-month advance broke down into an ~8-month low (Nov. ‘16) – low (Jun. ’17) – low (Feb. ’18) – high (Oct. ’18) Cycle Progression.
Simultaneously, that fulfilled 10-Year & 5-Year Cycle Progressions and a related discussion from the April ’18 INSIIDE Track:
3-31-18 “Looking out over the next 6 – 12 months, a decisive turning point is expected in 3Q 2018. Starting from the larger cycles and working down, the governing 1 – 3 year cycle is a 27 – 30 month cycle that has impacted Crude since July 2006, its penultimate high…If you look at this entire cycle from a quarterly basis, 3Q 2018 is the target cycle…
Overriding that is a ~5-year high – high cycle (3Q ‘08 – 3Q ‘13) that also targets 3Q 2018 – most likely for a peak. Underlying it is a 15 – 16 month low (1Q ‘16) – low (2Q ‘16) Cycle Progression that aligns in 3Q 2018. The ascent of that low – low cycle argues for 3Q ‘18 being a high.”
That ~5-Year Cycle is one of the most consistent in Crude and is reinforced by an overriding ~10-Year Cycle – that also portended a peak in 3Q 2018. Crude peaked while completing successive 15-week/~15.0 point advances and has since plunged. 1 – 2 year support comes into play at 47.90 – 48.55/CL”
Crude Oil has plummeted since peaking in early-Oct. while fulfilling 5-Year, 10-Year & multi-month/multi-quarter cycle highs most synergistic inlate-Sept. 2018… and also completing the latest phase of Middle East (geopolitical) cycles that projected higher oil prices into late-Sept. 2018. The next phase of bullish oil cycles is projected for 1Q/2Q 2019 – leading into a potential (secondary) high in/around May 2019.
From a price perspective (price action is the ultimate filter), Crude should reach 1 – 2 year support/downside targets at 47.90 – 48.55/CL and ultimately attack 2 – 3 year support at 42.05 – 42.65/CL before 6 – 12 month bottom becomes more likely. Longer-term cycles argue for a bottom in Crude in Dec. ‘18/Jan. ’19, followed by a rally into ~May 2019.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.