Crude Spurring GSCI Higher into (Divergent?) Peak – Most Likely on Oct 26 – 30 ’26!
10-21-26 – “There are a number of factors that can exert brief, but substantial, inflationary or deflationary influence on decisive markets.
Inflationary factors include CPI, PPI & PCE monthly releases (though these are backward focused), sudden surges in a particular commodity (like oil), sudden declines in the Dollar Index… to name a few.
Deflationary factors include many of the same (or their inverse like sudden plunges in a commodity or surge in the Dollar Index) as well as rising interest rates (or the fear of that) and/or a sudden sell-off in the broad equity markets.
The point of these observations is that ‘inflation’ in one arena does not always migrate into all the corresponding arenas. That is why it is always critical to take any specific analysis… as specific analysis.
A prime example is in the ongoing outlook for commodity inflation as reflected in the GSCI ($GNX; Goldman Sachs Commodity Index). That index is heavily weighted in oil & gas – so dramatic moves in the energy complex can have an oversized impact – but they are not the only factors.
Since Oct ’25, the GSCI was/has been forecast to first surge from Dec ’25 into ~April ’26… and then ultimately into ~April ’27. The mid-Dec ’25 low took hold in lockstep with an ongoing ~4-month/~18-week low-low-low-(low; Dec 15 – 19, ’25) Cycle Progression that corroborated reinforcing cycles in the energy complex – projecting a major oil rally in 2026.
That analysis has been published in INSIIDE Track since the Nov ’25 issue (see excerpts on page 2) and was included as part of the outlook for a massive surge in energy prices in 2026.
All of that was detailed well before there were any hints of a major military operation directed at Iran.
Sure enough, the GSCI surged from Dec 16, ’25 into April ’26 – setting its highest daily close & highest weekly close (to date) in April ’26. Not only did that perfectly fulfill a myriad of Cycle Progressions that converged at that time, it powerfully corroborated the overall outlook for a future peak in/around April ’27.
In between now and then, an intervening peak in ~mid-Jan ’27 would reinforce that potential (although the 2Q ’27 peak could push into May ’27 and still be in alignment with multi-year Cycle Progressions).
The other intriguing aspect of this ongoing advance is the potential for a subsequent peak in 2Q 2028 – the next phase of a corresponding ~2-year/~24 – 25-month low (Jan ’16) – low (Feb ’18) – low (March ’20) – high (March ’22) – high (April ’24) – (high; April ’26) – (high; April/May 2028) Cycle Progression.
If accurate, that reinforces the conclusion that inflation – in one form or another – will be with us for quite some time. It would not be surprising to see one of its phases linked to a sharp decline in the Dollar Index… but the time for that is still future…” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!!
Crude & the products (Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil) continue to fulfill late-2025 & early-2026 projections for a massive rally in 2026, possibly stretching into 2Q 2027. The GSCI (heavily weighted in energy) corroborated that, projecting an initial surge – from mid-Dec ’25 into mid-April ’26 – and then a second surge into mid-to-late-Oct ’26… as part of an over-arching advance from 3Q ’25 into 2Q 2027.
On an intermediate basis, Crude fulfilled projections for a penultimate peak (peak before the ultimate peak) in ~mid-Sept ’26 as part of a series of progressive peaks… and fulfilled analysis for a subsequent low in early-Oct ’26. That was projected to spur a new surge into Oct 26 – 30, ’26 when a powerful convergence of weekly Cycle Progressions – including the next phase of that unique ~40-day/~6-week Cycle Progression – align… align and could/should time a 1 – 2-month peak.
Late-Oct/early-Nov ’26 is the ideal time for a blow-off peak that would corroborate future (2027) cycle highs, including related GSCI cycles in 1Q & 2Q ‘27.
17-Year Cycle: Energy & Equity Opposing Extremes
17-Year Cycle: Inflation’s Next Surge (into April/May ’26)
17-Year Cycle: Stocks, Stagflation & Housing
17-Year Cycle & Inflation II …and a Stock Market Low
See current Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for the most updated analysis.