DJIA/Stock Market Bottom: 1Q ’22 Sell-off Fulfilled; Rally into April ’22 Projected.
03/09/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Stock Indices are reinforcing the significance of the Feb 23/24 lows. The Russell 2K & S+P Midcap 400 held their late-Jan lows while creating double bottoms on Feb 23/24.
During the initial rally after that, the DJTA & S+P Midcap 400 turned their daily trends up – confirming a multi-week bottom. That led to a textbook 2 – 3 day reactive sell-off that allowed them to neutralize but NOT turn down their new daily uptrends.
That is the ideal setup for a ‘b’ or ‘2’ wave low and the onset of a larger ‘c’ or ‘3’ wave advance. At the same time, the Russell 2K, S+P 500, S+P Midcap 400, DJTA & NQ-100 dropped to their monthly support levels and held – fulfilling the primary downside price target linked to the intra-month downtrends. If they can turn their intra-month trends up in the coming days, it would confirm multi-week lows and project higher levels.
The action of the past three months has reinforced the 2-Year Cycle and repeated the pattern witnessed in 1Q 2010, 2014, 2016 & 2018 (with similarities to 1Q ’20) – when substantial declines occurred in Jan/Feb of those years. The most uncanny Jan/Feb similarities were between 2022 and 2016 (see illustrations at left, reprinted from the March 2 Weekly Re-Lay Alert and March ’22 INSIIDE Track).
[NOTE: It is IMPORTANT to reiterate, this 2-Year Cycle is viewed from a general perspective and more from a composite standpoint – of all the related periods – NOT looking for the current months or year to precisely replicate one previous period.]
In the current case, the action of Jan/Feb ’22 was offset by 1 – 2 weeks from similar action in Jan/Feb ‘16 (“Cycles spiral, they don’t circle”… which is why history rhymes, it does not repeat). That fulfilled what has been described in recent months, including in early-Feb:
2-02-22 – “Many indexes have paralleled action in 2015/2016, including 2Q ‘15/’21 highs, Aug ‘15/’21 lows, rebounds into late-Dec. ‘15/’21 and subsequent sharp sell-offs in Jan ‘16/’22… another sell-off was seen in early-Feb but only certain indexes spiked to new lows while others set higher lows.”
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The next (general) comparative expectation was/is for equities to move higher – on balance – to an important cycle peak in April ’22.
In 2016, stocks subsequently rallied back to their Nov ’15 highs, in late-April ’16, before correcting for a few weeks. In 2022, the focus has turned to a consistent 14 – 15 week low-low-low-high Cycle Progression – dating back to March ’21 in the DJIA – that portends a future peak on April 11 – 22.”
Stocks have fulfilled the outlook for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a 2 – 3 month plunge to begin 2022. Daily & weekly cycles honed that and projected a multi-week (or longer) bottom on Feb 23/24 followed by a quick, sharp rally. That is just the start of a massive topping process projected for 2022 – ultimately leading to market jolts in late-2022 through late-2023.
This stock market rebound is unfolding as Gold is fulfilling analysis for an accelerated advance into early-March – with a myriad of cycles peaking now, on March 7 – 11. This powerfully validates War Cycles projected to begin in late-2021/early-2022 and stretch through 2025.
How Does This Impact 10, 20 & 40-Year Stock Cycles Colliding in 2022?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.