DJIA/Stock Market Bottom: 1Q ’22 Sell-off Fulfilled; Rally into April ’22 Projected.
03/05/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock indices have held above their Feb 23/24 lows, reinforcing the potential for a multi-week low at that time. The Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 held their late-Jan lows while creating double bottoms at that time and have since turned their daily trends up and then pulled back. If they can turn their intra-month trends up in the coming days, it would confirm multi-week lows and project higher levels…
Stock Indices initially bottomed on Feb 23/24, with the NQ-100 and S+P 500 dropping to new lows and fulfilling their weekly trend patterns. The Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 held their late-Jan lows, creating double bottoms that set the stage for a larger-magnitude rally.
They have likely completed their early-year sell-off – fulfilling the broader expectations for 1Q ’22 linked to not only the 2-Year Cycle but also the pair of 4-Shadow Signals. As illustrated previously, the price and wave action since Nov ’21 has been remarkably similar to that of Nov ‘15 – Feb ‘16.
In 2016, stocks subsequently rallied back to their Nov ’15 highs, in late-April ’16, before correcting for a few weeks. Will something similar repeat in 2022?
One key factor is moving in that direction and setting the stage for a 4 – 6 week rally (in stages)…
The DJIA has a consistent 14 – 15 week low-low-low-high Cycle Progression – dating back to March ’21 – that portends a future peak on April 11 – 22…
Stocks rebounded after dropping into Feb 23/24, marking the 6th time in the last 8 months when they bottomed on the 19th – 24th of the month. They bottomed 1 month/30 degrees from their Jan 24 low, fulfilling a corresponding ~1-month/23 trading-day low (Dec 20) – low (Jan 24) – low (Feb 23/24) Cycle Progression that projects a future low for March 23/ 24 – 2 years from the March 20 – 24 ’20 lows.
Since that time, they have rallied with the DJTA & S+P Midcap 400 turning their daily trends up and giving the first sign of a higher magnitude bottom. All the other (primary) indexes have not yet accomplished that, requiring daily closes above 34,095/DJIA, 4377/ESM, 14,289/NQM & 2056/QRM to turn those daily trends up.
Additional bullish confirmation would be seen with the intra-month trends turning up. It would take daily closes above 34,179/DJIA, 4411/ESM, 14,389/ NQM, 15,646/DJTA, & 2067/QRM to achieve that.
All the indices set initial peaks in the first 3 days of the new month, repeating the pattern of late-Jan/early-Feb and perpetuating the ~1-month/30-degree & ~2-month/60-degree cycles in the DJTA. However, the daily trend and daily 21 MAC structures favor new highs in the coming week(s), which could be confirmed in the coming days.”
Stocks have fulfilled the outlook for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a 2 – 3 month plunge. Daily & weekly cycles honed that and projected a multi-week (or longer) bottom on Feb 23/24 followed by a quick, sharp rally. An initial high is likely in early-March but should be exceeded later in the month.
This stock market bottom is forming as Gold is fulfilling analysis for an accelerated advance into early-March – a harbinger of the geopolitical tensions that are unfolding. This powerfully validates War Cycles projected to begin in late-2021/early-2022 and stretch through 2025. Gold & Silver are expected to set a multi-week peak on March 7 – 11.
How Does This Impact 10, 20 & 40-Year Stock Cycles Colliding in 2022?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.