DJIA/Stock Market Bottom: Mid-March Spike Low Likely; Rally into April ’22 to Follow.
03/12/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock indices have held above their Feb 23/24 lows, creating another multi-week low, but have not yet shown signs of reversing higher (except for the DJTA). Along with prevailing daily & intra-month downtrends, that projects an additional (divergent) spike low in the coming week – the 2-year anniversary of the same week during which many stocks bottomed in March 2020…
Stock Indices are still trying to recover with the DJTA providing a moderately positive signal mid-week while most other indexes did the opposite.
In most cases, the other indexes (DJIA, ESM, NQM, QRM, IDX) rebounded to their declining daily 21 Low MACs (except for the Russell 2000, which showed a little more strength by rallying to its daily 21 High MAC) and remained below them on March 9 & 10.
On March 11, they then spiked slightly higher and reversed lower – triggering daily 2 Close Reversals lower – a 1 – 3 day sell signal.
In the case of the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100, they generated outside-day/2 Close Reversals lower – signaling a slightly weaker structure. During their recent rebounds, stocks were unable to turn their intra-month trends up. In line with their prevailing intra-month downtrends, they could briefly spike to lower lows into mid-month (March 14 – 17).
The S+P 500 & NQ-100 corroborated that by remaining in intra-month downtrends throughout the rebound – rallying right to the lows of their month-opening ranges but never being able to close above them. Most indexes already tested monthly support levels (in early-March) – fulfilling the downside price target linked to their intra-month downtrends – so new lows could retest and hold that support.
With regard to the 2-Year Cycle, some stocks & indices could still set a multi-month low on/around the 2-year anniversary of the March 2020 low. At that time, several stocks and some indexes (DJTA, NQ-100) set their intraday lows or low daily closes on March 16 – 18, with many others briefly spiking to new lows on March 20/23, ’20. A low in the coming week would arrive in the same week as many of those 2020 lows.
Looking out over the next 1 – 2 months, the next intermediate high is still expected in the middle half of April (not too dissimilar from when stocks set initial peaks in 2016 – another phase of the 2-Year Cycle that has been in focus). The DJIA (and other indexes) has a consistent 14 – 15 week low-low-low-high Cycle Progression – dating back to March ’21 – that portends a future peak on April 11 – 22.”
Stocks fulfilled the outlook for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a 2 – 3 month plunge to begin 2022. Daily & weekly cycles honed that and projected a multi-week (or longer) bottom on Feb 23/24. That is just the start of a massive topping process projected for 2022 – ultimately leading to market jolts in late-2022 through late-2023.
This stock market rebound is unfolding as Gold is fulfilling analysis for an accelerated advance into early-March – with a myriad of cycles peaking this past week, on March 7 – 11. This powerfully validates War Cycles projected to begin in late-2021/early-2022 and stretch through 2025.
How Does This Impact 10, 20 & 40-Year Stock Cycles Colliding in 2022?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.