DJIA/Stock Market Bottom: NQ-100 Producing Final (Divergent) Spike Low.
03/16/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Stock Indices are steadily reinforcing the significance of the Feb 23/24 lows – a low that was expected to be the ‘b’ or ‘2’ wave low (in most indexes) and usher in a more significant and substantial ‘c’ or ‘3’ wave advance. Even the NQ-100 reinforced that low by spiking below it but never generating a daily close below it.
In early March, most indexes generated intra-month downtrends and then dropped to monthly support levels and held – fulfilling the primary downside price target linked to the intra-month downtrends. Those March 8 lows were/are expected to hold in the DJIA, DJTA, Russell 2000, S+P Midcap 400, S+P 500, etc.
In contrast, the NQ-100 remained negative.
Those intra-month trends kept pressure on stocks and helped the weaker stocks and indexes spike to new lows at mid-month (fulfilling the primary downside timing target linked to the intra-month downtrends) even as the stronger stocks and indexes were building a base and preparing for a new surge once that ‘ceiling’ was lifted.
On March 14/15, the indexes spiked a little lower to begin the week even as the leading DJTA provided another positive signal – closing back above its daily 21 High MAC on the same day (March 15) it turned the direction of that 21 High MAC up…
Due to the falling (inversely-correlated) 21 MARC, that 21 MAC reversal had an increasingly good chance of remaining intact and triggering a corresponding uptrend – which took hold with a vengeance the last two days.
This came after the DJTA went through a textbook sequence of daily trend signals since its Feb 24 spike low. It initially rallied from that low and turned its daily trend up, leading to an initial high and reactive 2 – 3 day sell-off (into March 8).
During that pullback, the DJTA twice neutralized its daily uptrend but did not turn it down – the classic setup for a secondary low (‘b’ or ‘2’ wave low) and the onset of a higher-magnitude advance. It quickly re-entered its daily uptrend on March 9 and has been targeting higher levels ever since.
In direct contrast, the weakest index (NQ-100) dropped to new lows into March 15 (mid-month) – fulfilling its daily trend and intra-month trend signals while testing and holding monthly support, providing fulfillment to analysis for a divergent low. Those factors combined to pinpoint the ideal time and price for a low.
This NQ-100 spike low – to its lowest low since May ’21 – comes during the 2-year anniversary of the same week during which many stocks bottomed in March 2020. At that time (2-Year Cycle), several stocks and some indexes (DJTA, NQ-100) set their intraday lows or low daily closes on March 16 – 18, ‘20.
This reinforces the outlook for most stocks and indexes, which were/are expected to hold their Feb 23/24 & March 8 lows as part of a developing recovery that should ultimately produce the next intermediate high in the middle half of April (not too dissimilar from when stocks set initial peaks in 2016 – another phase of the 2-Year Cycle that has been in focus).
The DJIA (and other indexes) has a consistent 14 – 15 week low-low-low-high Cycle Progression – dating back to March ’21 – that portends a future peak on April 11 – 22.”
Stocks fulfilled the outlook for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a 2 – 3 month plunge to begin 2022. Daily & weekly cycles honed that and projected a multi-week (or longer) bottom on Feb 23/24 with the NQ-100 remaining weak and portending a divergent spike low during the week of March 14 – 18. That is just the start of a massive shift projected for 2022 – ultimately leading to market jolts in late-2022 through late-2023.
This stock market rebound is unfolding as Gold fulfilled analysis for an overall advance from late-Sept into early-March – with a myriad of cycles peaking on March 7 – 11. That also powerfully validates War Cycles projected to begin in late-2021/early-2022 and stretch through 2025.
How Does This Impact 10, 20 & 40-Year Stock Cycles Colliding in 2022?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.