DJTA Reinforces S+P 500: Multi-Month Top in Place; New Sell-off After Sept 15 ’23!
09/09/23 – “Stock indexes have rebounded after selling off into daily & weekly cycles (~Aug 18 – 25, ’23). The daily, intra-month & weekly trends are mixed – projecting additional two-sided trading in the coming week(s). A rally into mid-Sept ’23 is still likely in stronger indexes…
Stock Indices are mixed with a second index – the DJTA – turning its weekly trend down on Sept 8. That reinforces the outlook for a divergent peak (higher highs in some indexes and lower highs in others) in the middle part of Sept ’23. Daily & intra-month trend signals need to corroborate.
On a 2 – 3 month basis, equities entered a precarious time in late-July/early-Aug ’23 and were projected to (initially) sell off into Aug 18 – 25. They accomplished that, then bottomed in close sync with those cycles, while triggering mixed signals. Those signals augured an intervening rally into Sept (ideally into mid-Sept ’23 in the stronger indices) before a subsequent decline.
The DJIA & NQ-100 twice neutralized their weekly uptrends while selling off in August and the NQ-100 dropping right to its rising weekly 21 High MAC. Both those patterns increased the potential for an intermediate low and the onset of a new rally (that should at least retest and ideally exceed the late-July/early-Aug ’23 high).
That would remain the case until/unless they give weekly closes below 34,263/DJIA & 14,792/NQZ. The Russell 2000 acted similarly, dropping precisely to its downside target (1840/QRU & 1860/QRZ) while twice neutralizing its weekly uptrend – but not turning it down. It would not turn negative until a weekly close below 1857/QRZ (Dec futures).
From a broader perspective, the Russell 2000 reached its 2 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month upside target in late-July ’23, reinforcing the pivotal nature of Aug/Sept ‘23.
Since June ’21, the Russell has remained locked in a trading range bordered by its mid-April ’21 high and mid-June ’21 low. That continues to reinforce a lengthy period of consolidation that could ultimately give way to another leg down (based on the monthly downtrend and overall wave structure) in 2024.
The DJIA attacked its weekly LHR on Sept 1, increasing the potential for a 1 – 2 month high to take hold in the next 1 – 2 weeks… the S+P 500 & NQ-100 avoided turning their daily trends down while the DJIA re-entered its prevailing daily downtrend. These factors reinforce intermediate congestion and still leave open the potential for a rally into Sept 15/18.”
Multiple indexes are confirming that a multi-month peak was set in late-July/early-Aug ’23 – precisely when cycles and a host of indicators had been projecting it to take hold and usher in a precarious ‘danger period’. A more significant ‘danger period’ begins on/after Sept 15, ‘23.
The S+P 500 confirmed a multi-month peak was set in late-July/early-Aug ’23 – the precise time stocks had been projected to enter a precarious ‘danger period’. It turned its weekly trend down during the initial drop into late-Aug ‘23 – a lagging & confirming indicator that is usually triggered near the bottom of an initial sell-off and portends a reactive 1 – 3 week bounce… into the next bearish period after Sept 15, ’23, when a more significant decline has been forecast.
The DJTA has reinforced that negative signal. The DJIA concurs with its weekly LHR also portending a multi-week (or longer) peak around mid-Sept ’23.
Why Does DJIA Project Significant Peak in mid-Sept ‘23?
How Does S+P 500 (Negative) Weekly Trend Reversal Confirm Multi-month Top?
Why is Another Sell-off Very Likely after Sept 15, ‘23??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.