Equity & Energy Connection: Stocks & Oil/Gas Reinforcing April – June Outlooks.
04-29-26 – “The expected (intervening) sequence of a Cycle Progression varies based on where a market is within that Cycle Progression (1st or 2nd phase versus 3rd or 4th phase) and where said market is within an overall wave structure.
Wave structure helps filter Cycle Progressions and Cycle Progressions help filter wave structure. (The weekly & monthly trend indicator is an even more important filter for wave structure… but that is a topic for another discussion.)
When a market is just beginning a new phase (high – highs or low – lows) of a Cycle Progression – right after the inverted ‘shift’ – it is likely to spend equal or greater time in the (new) trending move as it is in the counter-trend move (between each high).
In other words, if a ~3-month high-high Cycle Progression has just set its first or second high – well into a new uptrend (since a low-low CP would have been supporting the first ~half of that uptrend… before inverting to a high-high CP) – the rallies into those highs are likely to consume much more time than the subsequent sell-offs.
In those cases, the new uptrend is well along in its advancing phase so corrections are quick and sharp.
In contrast, the latter phases of a Cycle Progression – before it inverts from a high-high CP to a new low-low CP – progressively see longer intervening declines and proportionately shorter rallies. That is because the market action is beginning to act like a new trend (in which trending moves consume more time and reactive moves are quick and sharp) even if a final high has not been set.
In the case of stock indexes – and in particular the NQ-100 – that is why it was expected to decline for 22 – 24 weeks, from its late-Oct ’25 high, before setting a multi-month bottom. That was directly linked to the prevailing ~8-month/33 – 36-week high-high-high Cycle Progression projecting a final high for July ’26.
As explained for several weeks leading into the late-March low, a ~22-week decline would represent a precise .618 division of the ~36-week cycle AND allow for the subsequent rally to last .618 of that ~22-week decline (~14 weeks) and peak in July ’26…
Combined with other timing indicators, those Cycle Progressions helped pinpoint March 30, ’26 as the ideal date for a multi-week/multi-month bottom. That was discussed in the days/weeks preceding that low:
03-28-26 – “Stock Indices have stretched their declines into the late-March/early-April ’26 time frame – the ideal ~2-week period for a 1 – 2 month low to take hold after fulfilling projections for large sell-offs following Cycle Progression highs in Jan/Feb ’26.
The NQ-100 led this process… That index could help time an impending blow-off low. As discussed before, the coming week would fulfill a ~22-week sell-off – a precise .618 division of the ~8-month/33 – 36-week low (Mar ’23) – low (Oct ‘23) – high (July ‘24) – high (Feb ‘25) – (high; Oct 20 – 31, ’25) Cycle Progression that pinpointed the late-Oct ’26 top.
That could allow for a .618 rebound (of that ~22-week decline) into the next phase of the ~36-week/~8-month Cycle Progression in July ’26. However, price action needs to clarify that part.
The NQ-100 set pivotal highs on July 31 & Oct 29, ’25 and Jan 28, ’26 – creating a geometric ~3-month/90-91 day high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. A subsequent 56 – 61-day sell-off would represent .618 – .667 of that cycle… and produce a low on March 25 – March 30, ’26.
That makes March 30, ’26 the most synergistic with regard to both weekly Cycle Progressions. That would also fulfill a ~51-week low (Apr 24 – 28 ’23) – low (Apr 15 – 19, ’24) – low (Apr 7 – 11, ’25) – (low; March 30 – April 3, ’26) Cycle Progression.
The coming week is also the minimum time for the DJIA to set another multi-month low – which it has done every 25 – 26 weeks since Oct ’23. It is attacking its 1 – 2-month (minimum) downside target near 45,000… so it should be monitored closely for a bottom. Weekly trends concur.”
Stock Indices have surged into late-April, fulfilling many multi-week timing indicators while reinforcing other multi-month ones. The first stage of this shift was projected to be a multi-month low in late-March/ early-April ’26. However, it was not only the myriad timing indicators that projected a multi-month low. Price indicators & objectives concurred…
At the time, the DJIA plunged right to its multi-month target (~45,000) as the NQ-100 attacked its 3 – 6-month target (~23,200/NQ) while related indicators honed the most likely time for a low to be on March 30, ’26. That is when and where they bottomed – fulfilling those targets and portending an April rally.
The S+P 500 & NQ-100 turned their weekly trends back up while most other indexes did not. That could lead to volatile swings into July ’26 – with some indexes spiking to new intra-year lows during an intervening decline (into ~mid-June ’26??)… That would then pave the way for those indexes to rally to new highs (even if only slightly) into July ’26 as the DJIA, et al rally to lower highs.
The weekly trend indicators – and other related price indicators – would need to corroborate that potential scenario. The DJIA, DJTA & IDX (S+P 400 Midcap) turned their daily trends down, confirming they have already set multi-week highs.
The S+P 500 & NQ-100 are now in the 2-day time frame (April 29/30) with the greatest synergy of price & timing factors portending a multi-week top…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil resumed their rallies after correcting into mid-April ’26. Like several other markets, the energy complex powerfully validated the ‘opening range’ of the new Natural Year (from March 20 – April 19th) – entering a new and potentially more dangerous advance in sync with the April 19th Date of Aggression.
Oil and oil-related stocks are currently diverging. The XLE & XOI surged into and peaked in late-March ‘26, fulfilling a ~23-month high (Jly ’18) – high (June ’20) – high (May ’22) – high (April ’24) – (high; Mar ’26) Cycle Progression & a ~6-month/~26-week high (Oct ’23) – high (Apr ’24) – high (Oct ’24) – high/low (Mar/Apr ’25) – high (Sept 22-26 ’25) – (high; Mar 23 – 27, ’26) Cycle Sequence.
On a broader basis, Unleaded Gas has a consistent ~4-year cycle that timed peaks (at least 6 – 12 months & often 1 – 2 years in duration) in May – July 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 & 2022… and has been projecting a similar peak in May – July 2026.
Crude has a corroborating ~2-year/22 – 24-month high-high-high-(high; June/July ’26) Cycle Progression and a ~1-year low (Jun ’23) – high (June/July ’24) – high (June ’25) – (high; June ’26) Cycle Progression that could produce the next multi-month peak in ~June 2026.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes have surged from a powerful convergence of daily, weekly & monthly Cycle Progressions and timing indicators on March 30, ’26. Many indexes also fulfilled major downside price objectives at their late-March ’26 lows – setting decisive bottoms. That ushered in a multi-month bottom in sync with an uncanny geometric cycle in the DJIA and the textbook scenario for the ~8-Month Cycle Progression in the NQ-100. The NQ-100 projects a 2 – 3-month surge to follow. As described in late-March ’26:
3-30-26 – “Stock Indices are fulfilling the outlook for a large sell-off in March ’26… They have stretched their declines into the late-March/early-April ’26 time frame – the ideal ~2-week period for a 1 – 2 month low to take hold… A low on March 30 – April 3, ’26 would also fulfill a ~51-week low (Apr 24 – 28 ’23) – low (Apr 15 – 19, ’24) – low (Apr 7 – 11, ’25) – (low; March 30 – April 2, ’26) Cycle Progression.
All things (timing indicators) considered, March 30th is the ideal date for an intermediate low…
The DJTA (Transportation Average) is reinforcing this… it turned its daily trend up… portending a quick, reactive 2 – 3 day pullback before a larger rally. The 3rd day of that reactive 2 – 3-day pullback is today – March 30th. It has not even neutralized its daily uptrend, reinforcing the potential for a secondary low and the onset of a larger advance.”
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincided with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in the first half of 2026. That was reinforced by mid-Jan buy signals & subsequent action in Crude & the products. Unleaded Gas should stretch a more significant peak into at least May ’26 – when broader monthly Cycle Progressions peak. However, oil stocks may have already set multi-month peaks while fulfilling a myriad of Cycle Progressions in late-March ‘26.
What Does Equity/Energy Connection Bode for May/June ’26?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.