Gold Beginning Multi-Month Surge? Silver Bottoming. XAU Nears Decisive Support.
07-08-26 – “Gold & Silver are bouncing after Gold dropped to a new intra-year low last week, fulfilling an ~11-week high-high-high-(low; June 29 – July 2, ’26) Cycle Progression while providing another intra-week spike below its Oct ’25 low (4th wave of lesser degree).
In Silver, this decline approached related cycles, including a trio of similar timed waves that comprise the entire ‘A-B-C’ decline. A Silver low in late-June/early-July ’26 would (did?) also complete a 50% retracement in time and fulfill a ~9-week/63 – 64-week low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
The recent lows also fulfilled weekly HLS indicators.
That reinforces the overall wave analysis that the current decline (since mid-April ’26) is still a corrective one that is likely a ‘C’ wave, even though it has extended farther than expected.
The recent spike low reinforced the outlook for the next significant peak to occur in Oct ’26 – fulfilling a ~4-year low (4Q ’14) – low (Aug/Sept ’18) – low (Sept/ Oct ’22) – (high; Sept – Nov ’26) Cycle Progression & a ~1-year/~360-degree low (Oct ’23) – high (Oct ’24) – high (Oct ’25) – (high; Oct ’26) Cycle Progression.
If a low has just taken hold… Gold could now see a 13 – 14-week advance into Oct ’26 – rebounding .618 of its recent 22-week decline while mimicking the 13 – 14-week rally of Oct ’25 into Jan ’26… and perpetuating its ongoing sequence of geometric (~3-month/~90-degree) moves.
It would take daily closes above the July 6th highs to turn the daily AND intra-month trends up and initially validate that scenario.
The XAU & HUI declined from mid-May cycle highs into early-July, fulfilling their weekly trend patterns, setting the stage for an intermediate low.
As stated last month, the ideal scenario would have this decline stretch into July 6 – 10, ‘26 (July 6 – 8th = most synergy) and fulfill a ~4-month/~17 – 18-week low-low-low-low-(low; July 2 – 10, ’26) Cycle Sequence as well as a ~6-week high-high-high-high-(low; July 6 – 10, ’26) Cycle Progression.
That has initially taken place and also fulfilled key downside price projections as these indexes still appear to be in an overall ‘a-b-c’ decline – in the wave ‘IV’ of a potential 5-wave sequence that began with the Sept ’22 low. The 4th wave of lesser degree (wave 4 of III) support remains at the Nov ’25 low.
The XAU just spiked to within a few points of its rising monthly 21 High MAC – a pivotal multi-month level of support. This is taking place in the month after the XAU triggered the second neutral signal to its prevailing monthly uptrend – the optimum time for a 3 – 6-month (or longer) low to take hold…
On a little broader basis, a rally into late-Aug/early-Sept ’26 is possible.”
Gold & Silver (as well as other metals & related indexes) are fulfilling ongoing analysis for a multi-month correction that should bottom at or above their Oct/Nov ’25 lows… ideally in early-July ’26. This is still perceived to be an ‘A-B-C’ correction, with the terminal ‘C’ wave nearing fruition.
Late-June/early-July ’26 is/was the ideal time for a spike low and the start of a multi-week bottoming process. Late-July/early-August ’26 is shaping up as the most likely time for a new surge to take hold as part of Gold’s projected multi-month advance from its June 30, ’26 low. The XAU could see an intervening spike low around July 17, ’26… before bullish cycles kick in (in late-July/early-August ’26).
All of this remains in the context of the unfolding scenarios projected for 2022 – 2028/2029, with Gold & Silver nearing a transition into the next phase of their over-riding outlook. If they bottom in late-June/early-July ’26, that would powerfully corroborate projections for 3Q & 4Q 2026… as well as analysis for 2026 – 2029! Analysis for the US Dollar & Forex, Interest Rates, Stock Indexes and Bitcoin/cryptos concurs.
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