Gold & Silver Target 4675/GCZ & 70.80/SIU; Bitcoin Should Surge Above 76K into late-August!
08-12-26 – 40YC Currency War – New Inflationary Phase? – “Today’s CPI report (and potentially tomorrow’s PPI report) is reflecting what the markets already knew – that commodity price inflation eased in May & June ’26. All one has to do is pull up a chart of the GSCI to get some (imperfect) insight into that reality.
What it does not show is that commodity inflation has been steadily rising since early-July ’26. This time it has been a little more of a ‘double-whammy’ (another of those highly technical terms) – with the entire precious metals’ spectrum rallying along with energy prices, grains, & diverse commodities.
While the US and other nations are desperately trying to suppress the price of oil – with massive drawdowns in strategic reserves, etc. – Crude remains high, Unleaded Gas is near multi-year highs and Heating Oil has just set new contract highs, as the winter heating season approaches.
All those energy markets have turned their intra-month trends up while Crude & Unleaded Gas need daily closes above their August 11th highs to turn their daily trends back up. That could go a long way into filtering the outlook for the rest of August.
The ‘respite’ in inflationary pressures – at least according to government reports – has taken the weight off Gold & Silver and allowed them to rally from multi-month cycle lows.
As explained in INSIIDE Track, those metals typically lead inflation… not follow it.
Gold & the White Metals are surging after fulfilling 3 – 6-month downside objectives and providing textbook monthly chart buy signals at their July ’26 lows. That also fulfilled some key technical patterns that were arguing for a major ‘C’ wave low.
As discussed repeatedly in July, a major correction often returns to the rising monthly 21 High MAC – a pivotal level of steeply ascending support – while correcting in a larger-magnitude uptrend.
In the ideal scenario, that sell-off will culminate after the market has triggered a pair of neutral signals against the prevailing monthly uptrend – preparing for a 3 – 6-month bottom and the onset of a new advance.
That is what occurred in Gold as it spiked down to that rising monthly 21 High MAC and quickly reversed higher from that ascending support (~3970/GC on continuous contract) while neutralizing its monthly uptrend AND retracing right to its 4th wave of lesser degree support – the overall downside target and support for this multi-month decline.
At the same time, Silver dropped far enough to attack its rising monthly 21 High MAC although it had not neutralized its monthly uptrend, showing underlying strength on a 6 – 12-month basis.
All those signals identified late-July ‘26 as the most likely time for the onset of the ‘a substantial rally in metals!’
Silver also fulfilled the midpoint of a ~2.5-year/~30-month low (March ’20) – low (Sept ’22) – low (April ’25) – (low/high; Sept/Oct ’27) Cycle Progression that is likely to time the next 6 – 12-month peak in Sept/Oct ‘27.
An intervening high in ~Oct ’26 would corroborate that longer-term Cycle Progression and reinforce the focus on ~Oct ‘27.
The midpoint of that ~30-month Cycle Progression was the latest phase of a ~14 – 15-month low (Jan/Feb ’24) – low (Apr ’25) – (low; June/July ’26) Cycle Progression that also projected a low in late-June – mid-July ’26 and would likely project an overall rally into Sept/Oct ’27 (it’s next phase).
Silver also fulfilled another example of wave symmetry. Previously, it experienced 5 declines of approximately 6 months in duration (since mid-2019). They included the declines of Sept ’19 – March ’20, Feb ’21 – Sept ’21, March ’22 – Sept ’22, April ’23 – Oct ’23 and Oct ’24 – April ’25.
A 6th decline of similar duration projected a low in July ’26 and the onset of a new multi-month advance.
There were also intermediate (multi-week) timing indicators converging at that time. Gold dropped to a new intra-year low in late-June, fulfilling an ~11-week high-high-high-(low; June 29 – July 2, ’26) Cycle Progression while providing another intra-week spike below its Oct ’25 low (4th wave of lesser degree).
All of that was reinforced by other white metals…
Platinum & Palladium corroborated that outlook with Platinum fulfilling a ~7-month/31 – 32-week low (Sept 2 – 6, ‘24) – low (April 7 – 11, ’25) – low (Nov 17 – 21, ’25) – (low; June 29 – July 2, ’26) Cycle Progression – that projects a minimum ~16-week rally (50% of 32-week cycle) into Oct 19 – 23, ’26.
Ideally, that would only be part of a full ~32-week rally – since that Cycle Progression is at the likely inversion stage – into Feb 8 – 12, ’27.
All of this was preceding a major fundamental move (another) by China in July ‘26, as they seek to play a much larger role in the pricing of Gold. This has been going on for over a decade, some of which was triggered by the global & Western financial crisis of 2008.
The handwriting was – and still is – on the wall!
Gold, Silver, Platinum & Palladium generated a series of new buy signals in mid-to-late-July, increasing the likelihood for a new surge to take hold in late-July and extend into [reserved for subscribers]… If this analysis is fulfilled, it will be a precursor to another round of inflation in the markets. More on that to follow…
Bitcoin & Ether have languished after initially rallying into late-July ’26. That came after they set new lows in June ’26 while perpetuating a ~5-month/ ~21 – 22-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
As long as they do not produce daily closes below their August 3rd lows, these cryptos remain positive and could still see another 1 – 2-week rally…
As a result, Bitcoin might stretch this into ~August 25/26, ’26 and fulfill a ~5-week/35 – 36-day high (May 11) – high (June 15) – high (July 21) – (high; Aug 25/26, ’26) Cycle Progression while creating symmetry of waves (56-day decline & 56-day rally).
~71,000/BT remains the initial upside target in Bitcoin, with extreme monthly targets converging just below 76,000/BTC. Ether is still (initially) targeting ~2150 – 2200/ETH.
Gold & Silver are surging in line with expectations for August ’26 and the fulfillment of a myriad of weekly, monthly and multi-year Cycle Progression lows in July ‘26.
Those lows fulfilled weekly HLS indicators & gave reinforcement to prevailing wave analysis that the recent decline (since mid-April ’26) is still a corrective one that is likely a ‘C’ wave… and primed Gold & Silver for a new surge beginning in late-July ‘26.
Gold was expected to see an initial surge to 4460 – 4490/GCZ – the first critical decision point for this new rally – and potentially as high as 4680/GCZ. It has reached 4500/GCZ, fulfilling the initial target.
Silver has related targets & decision points at 70.80 – 72.10/SIU… that remain ‘in play’…
2 – 4 week & 1 – 3 month traders could have entered long positions in Dec Gold & Sept Silver futures at 4054 – 4130/GCZ & 56.87 – 58.90/SIU – in line with the published trading strategies in July ’26 – and be holding these with substantial open gains.
Risk/exit on daily closes below 4320/GCZ and/ or 62.90/SIU. Exit 1/2 of 2 – 4-week long positions if/when 4675/GCZ and/or 71.70/SIU is hit. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
The XAU & HUI are also surging after declining from mid-May cycle highs into mid-July and fulfilling their weekly trend patterns. That set the stage for a multi-month low as they attacked rising monthly 21 High MACs.
They stretched their declines into July 17th, fulfilling a ~1-month/~30-degree high (Apr 17) – high (May 13) – high (June 17) – (low; July 17, ’26) Cycle Progression and intra-month downtrends.
At the same time, they fulfilled a 19 – 20-week high-high-high-(low) and a ~10-week high-high-high-high-(low) Cycle Progression… indicating that at least a ~5-week rally should follow)…
Platinum & Palladium corroborated this outlook with Platinum fulfilling a ~7-month/31 – 32-week low (Sept 2 – 6, ‘24) – low (April 7 – 11, ’25) – low (Nov 17 – 21, ’25) – (low; June 29 – July 2, ’26) Cycle Progression – that now projects a minimum ~16-week rally (50% of 32-week cycle) into Oct 19 – 23, ’26.
This came right after Palladium attacked its rising monthly 21 Low MAC (after neutralizing its monthly uptrend for the second time) & Platinum attacked its rising monthly 21 High MAC while dropping right to its Oct/Nov ’25 low (1539/PLV) – its 4th wave of lesser degree support on a multi-year basis (the ideal level for a secondary low).
A 1 – 2-month rally to ~2000/PLV appears likely (with ~2200/PLV possible) but Platinum needs a daily & weekly close above 1850/PLV to validate. If triggered, that could spur a new rally into August 24 – 28, ’26, the latest phase of a ~15-week high-high-high-(high; Aug 24 – 28, ‘26) Cycle Progression.”
Gold & Silver, Platinum & Palladium and the XAU & HUI fulfilled analysis for a multi-month drop into July ’26 – when a decisive, multi-month bottom was/is projected. That decline was/is still perceived to be an ‘A-B-C’ correction (of an over-arching multi-year uptrend), with the terminal ‘C’ wave forming a bottom while ushering in the next phase of the 40-Year Cycle of Currency War. A new surge was/is projected for late-July through late-August ‘26!
Late-June/early-July ’26 is/was the ideal time for the start of a multi-week bottoming process, with Gold leading the way. The XAU corroborated with mid-July ’26 cycle lows. Silver & the white metals followed. Late-July/early-August ’26 was/is the most likely time for a new surge to take hold as part of Gold’s projected multi-month advance from its June 30, ’26 low. An initial rally into late-August ’26 was/is projected in all these metal-related markets. Cryptos are also been projecting a powerful surge into August 25/26th!
All this remains in the context of the unfolding scenarios projected for 2022 – 2028/2029, with Gold & Silver nearing a transition into the next phase of their over-riding outlook. If they began a new surge in late-July/early-August ’26, that would powerfully corroborate projections for 3Q & 4Q 2026… as well as analysis for 2026 – 2029! Analysis for the US Dollar & Forex, Interest Rates, Stock Indexes and Bitcoin/cryptos concurs. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.