Gold Confirming Bottom; XAU in Flux… Could See Mid-July Spike Low.
07-06-26 – “Gold & Silver are bouncing after Gold dropped to a new intra-year low last week, fulfilling an ~11-week high-high-high-(low; June 29 – July 2, ’26) Cycle Progression while providing another intra-week spike below its Oct ’25 low (4th wave of lesser degree).
In Silver, this decline approached related cycles, including a trio of similar timed waves that comprise the entire ‘A-B-C’ decline. A Silver low in late-June/early-July ’26 would also complete a 50% retracement in time and fulfill a ~9-week/63 – 64-week low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
The recent lows also fulfilled weekly HLS indicators. That reinforces the overall wave analysis that the current decline (since mid-April ’26) is still a corrective one that is likely a ‘C’ wave, even though it has extended farther than expected.
The recent spike low also reinforced the outlook for the next significant peak to occur in Oct ’26 – fulfilling a ~4-year low (4Q ’14) – low (Aug/Sept ’18) – low (Sept/Oct ’22) – (high; Sept – Nov ’26) Cycle Progression as well as a ~1-year/~360-degree low (Oct ’23) – high (Oct ’24) – high (Oct ’25) – (high; Oct ’26) Cycle Progression.
If a low has just taken hold… Gold could now see a 13 – 14-week advance into Oct ’26 – rebounding .618 of its recent 22-week decline while mimicking the 13 – 14-week rally of Oct ’25 into Jan ’26… and perpetuating its ongoing sequence of geometric (~3-month/~90-degree) moves. It would take daily closes above the July 6th highs to turn the daily AND intra-month trends up and initially validate that scenario.
The XAU & HUI declined from mid-May cycle highs into mid-June, spiking below their late-March ’26 lows and fulfilling their weekly trend patterns, setting the stage for an initial low.
That also fulfilled initial downside price projections as they still appear to be in an overall ‘a-b-c’ decline – in the wave ‘IV’ of a potential 5-wave sequence that began with the Sept ’22 low. The 4th wave of lesser degree (wave 4 of III) support remains at the Nov ’25 low.
Since that time, they have consolidated near their lows, with a retest on June 24th. They need to turn their new intra-month trends up quickly, with a daily close above the July 1st – 6th trading range (on July 7th or later) – to signal a bottom…
However, if it is unable to turn its new intra-month trend up, that would project a new decline into July 17 – 24th – at which time a more significant bottom could take hold. (That would also fulfill a ~5-week high-high-(low) Cycle Progression.) Tomorrow’s action could tell the tale.”
Gold & Silver (as well as other metals & related indexes) are fulfilling ongoing analysis for a multi-month correction that should bottom at or above their Oct/Nov ’25 lows… ideally in early-July ’26. This is still perceived to be an ‘A-B-C’ correction, with the terminal ‘C’ wave nearing fruition.
Late-June/early-July ’26 is/was the ideal time for a spike low and the start of a multi-week bottoming process. Late-July/early-August ’26 is shaping up as the most likely time for a new surge to take hold as part of Gold’s projected multi-month advance from its June 30, ’26 low. The XAU could see an intervening spike low around July 17, ’26… before bullish cycles kick in (in late-July/early-August ’26).
All of this remains in the context of the unfolding scenarios projected for 2022 – 2028/2029, with Gold & Silver nearing a transition into the next phase of their over-riding outlook. If they bottom in late-June/early-July ’26, that would powerfully corroborate projections for 3Q & 4Q 2026… as well as analysis for 2026 – 2029! Analysis for the US Dollar & Forex, Interest Rates, Stock Indexes and Bitcoin/cryptos concurs.
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