Gold-en Phase of 40-Year Cycle of Currency War; Metals Poised to Surge!
07-22-26 – 40YC Currency War – The Next Golden Phase – “Previous discussions have detailed how at least one major correction will return to the rising monthly 21 High MAC – a pivotal level of (steeply) ascending support – during the accelerated portion of a larger-magnitude uptrend. In the ideal scenario, that correction will culminate after the sell-off has triggered a pair of neutral signals against the prevailing monthly uptrend.
That is what is occurring in Gold as it set the stage for a July spike down to that rising monthly 21 High MAC and a reversal higher from that rising support. Other factors – like weekly & monthly Cycle Progressions, HLS levels, etc. – helped corroborate.
Gold traced out a perfect example of this textbook scenario, retracing to its rising monthly 21 High MAC (~3970/GC on continuous contract) while neutralizing its monthly uptrend AND retracing right to its 4th wave of lesser degree support – the overall downside target and support for this multi-month decline. The GLD ETF concurred, bottoming at its monthly 21 High MAC.
Silver also attacked its rising monthly 21 High MAC although it has not neutralized its monthly uptrend as it continues to display underlying strength. That is why the second half of July was identified as the ‘time for a substantial rally in metals!’
There was a great deal of synergy involved in this conclusion, not the least of which was/is weekly Cycle Progressions in Gold, Silver & Platinum (each different – adding a level of credibility and synergy via ‘non-correlation’) converging in mid-2026.
In the case of Gold, one factor was the intervening movement of its ~9-month Cycle Progression. In late-Jan ’26, it fulfilled the latest phase of a 40-week low (Oct ’23) – high (July 15 – 19, ’24) – high (April 21 – 25, 25) – high (Jan 26 – 30, ’26) – (high; Nov 2 – 6, ’26) Cycle Progression… that projected the ensuing phase to peak in early-Nov ’26.
With the late-Jan – late-Oct/early-Nov ’26 cycle being the 4th (final?) high-high in this overall Cycle Progression, the intervening decline is expected to consume .618 – .667 of the overall ~40-week cycle.
That projected a mid-July ’26 low, setting the stage for a .618 time rally of that ~5.5-month decline – into the late-Oct/early-Nov ’26 time period.
That was one facet of a synergistic convergence of Cycle Progressions, timing indicators, and reinforcing price indicators that project a ~July ’26 low.
In Gold & Silver, they basically set double bottoms – a few weeks apart… with each of those lows fulfilling multiple timing factors.
To reiterate, Gold dropped to a new intra-year low in late-June, fulfilling an ~11-week high-high-high-(low; June 29 – July 2, ’26) Cycle Progression while providing another intra-week spike below its Oct ’25 low (4th wave of lesser degree)… all setting the stage for a multi-month rally to begin taking hold.
There were even longer-term cycles involved. Silver has a ~2.5-year/~30-month low (March ’20) – low (Sept ’22) – low (April ’25) – (low/high; Sept/Oct ’27) Cycle Progression that is likely to time the next 6 – 12-month peak in Sept/Oct ‘27. A preceding high in ~Oct ’26 would corroborate.
The midpoint of that ~30-month Cycle Progression is the latest phase of a ~14 – 15-month low (Jan/Feb ’24) – low (Apr ’25) – (low; June/July ’26) Cycle Progression that also projected a low in late-June – mid-July ’26 and would likely project a rally into Sept/Oct ’27 (it’s next phase).
The potential for a mid-year ’26 low (late-June – mid-July ’26) was reinforced by other factors.
From a broad perspective, Silver has experienced 5 declines of approximately 6 months in duration – since mid-2019. They included the declines of Sept ’19 – March ’20, Feb ’21 – Sept ’21, March ’22 – Sept ’22, April ’23 – Oct ’23 and Oct ’24 – April ’25. A 6th decline of similar duration would bottom in July ’26.
A decline into the week of July 13 – 17, ’26 would complete a perfect .618 time retracement of the May ’25 – Jan ’26 advance… exactly what has transpired.
Then there are the other white metals…
Platinum & Palladium corroborated this outlook with Platinum fulfilling a ~7-month/31 – 32-week low (Sept 2 – 6, ‘24) – low (April 7 – 11, ’25) – low (Nov 17 – 21, ’25) – (low; June 29 – July 2, ’26) Cycle Progression – that now projects a minimum ~16-week rally (50% of 32-week cycle) into Oct 19 – 23, ’26.
Ideally, that would only be part of a full ~32-week rally – since that Cycle Progression is at the likely inversion stage – into Feb 8 – 12, ’27.
There are good reasons (technical, cyclical and even fundamental) why many other markets will play a key role in distinct phases of this next (expected) rally in precious metals. Keep in mind that these do NOT all occur at the exact same time… which is why specific time frames are often in focus for potential breakout and/or acceleration phases.
For example, a new rally in Bonds & Notes (lower interest rates or at least a developing expectation for that) and a new decline in the US Dollar Index will likely be seen in the coming months… and help reinforce a developing new uptrend in Gold & Silver.
There are also intriguing expectations for Bitcoin & cryptos – that could play a key role at a specific time period in late-3Q/early-4Q ’26 – as well as for Energy markets, commodities, and of course stocks.
All of this dovetails with the ongoing discussion regarding the 40-Year Cycle of Currency War and the impact it has been expected to have in 2022 – 2028 (see July ’26 INSIIDE Track for latest analysis)…
Gold & Silver declined into mid-month and have since rebounded. They still need daily closes above 4216/GCQ & 63.73/SIU to turn the intra-month trends up and produce confirmed signs of a multi-week reversal higher.
The recent lows fulfilled weekly HLS indicators & reinforced prevailing wave analysis that the recent decline (since mid-April ’26) is still a corrective one that is likely a ‘C’ wave. This dovetails with what is discussed in the opening comments of this Alert (see pages 1 – 3) and primes Gold & Silver for a new surge that could ultimately stretch into/through Oct ‘26.
If a low has just taken hold, Gold could now see a 13 – 14-week advance into Oct ’26 – rebounding .618 of its recent 22-week decline while mimicking the 13 – 14-week rally of Oct ’25 into Jan ’26 and perpetuating a sequence of geometric (~3-month/ ~90-degree) moves.
Reinforcing all this (including bullish signals in Platinum & Palladium) is the action of another key tech-related metal: Copper.
Copper remains positive, on a multi-month basis, until a weekly close below 5.850/HGU. It is fulfilling analysis for a new rally into late-July ’26 Cycle Progression highs and could extend that advance into mid-August ‘26.
Throughout this century, Copper has shown a strong proclivity to move in ~2-year & ~4-year cycles and waves. A few of them mature in 3Q ’26 – when an additional surge & spike high is possible, corroborating daily & weekly CPs.
For starters, a ~24 – 25-month low-low-(high; Aug/Sept ’26) Cycle Progression would fulfill the latest phase of a ~2-year Cycle Progression that also timed lows in Aug/Sept ’16 & Aug/Sept ’18 (but not in Aug/Sept ’20). A related ~4-year low-low-low-high-(high; 3Q ’28) Cycle Progression has its midpoint in July/Aug ’26.
A peak in June – Aug ’26 would complete the latest ~2-year advance – matching the durations of prior rallies in 2004-’06, 2008-’11, 2016-’17, 2020-’22 & 2022-’24.
There is much more to these two cycles – 3Q ’26 & 3Q ’28 – that will be elaborated in longer-term analysis (INSIIDE Track). It reinforces the ongoing outlook for mid-2026 into late-2028, the culminating (and potentially most ‘exciting’) phase of this 7-year period from 2022 – 2028.
The XAU & HUI declined from mid-May cycle highs into mid-July, fulfilling their weekly trend patterns, setting the stage for an intermediate low as they attacked their rising monthly 21 High MACs.
They stretched their declines into July 17th, fulfilling a ~1-month/~30-degree high (Apr 17) – high (May 13) – high (June 17) – (low; July 17, ’26) Cycle Progression and their intra-month downtrends – setting the stage for a subsequent rally into month-end and the completion of an Intra-Month V Reversal higher.
At the same time, they fulfilled a 19 – 20-week high-high-high-(low) and a ~10-week high-high-high-high-(low) Cycle Progression… indicating that at least a ~5-week rally should follow.
This took place in the month after the XAU triggered the second neutral signal to its prevailing monthly uptrend – the optimum time (July ’26, the subsequent month) for a 3 – 6-month (or longer) low to take hold.
Initially, that could spur a rally into late-Aug/early-Sept ’26. Daily closes above the July 22nd highs are needed to turn the daily trends up… and above the July 6th highs to turn the intra-month trends up.”
Gold & Silver (as well as other metals & related indexes) have fulfilled analysis for a multi-month correction (from their late-Jan ’26 highs) into July ’26 – when a decisive, multi-month bottom was/is projected. This is still perceived to be an ‘A-B-C’ correction (of an over-arching multi-year uptrend), with the terminal ‘C’ wave forming a bottom while ushering in the next phase of the 40-Year Cycle of Currency War.
Late-June/early-July ’26 is/was the ideal time for the start of a multi-week bottoming process, with Gold leading the way. Late-July/early-August ’26 is the most likely time for a new surge to take hold as part of Gold’s projected multi-month advance from its June 30, ’26 low. The XAU has attacked major support… awaiting bullish cycles to kick in (in late-July/early-August ’26). Copper projects an imminent surge to new all-time highs!
All this remains in the context of the unfolding scenarios projected for 2022 – 2028/2029, with Gold & Silver nearing a transition into the next phase of their over-riding outlook. If they begin a new surge in late-July/early-August ’26, that would powerfully corroborate projections for 3Q & 4Q 2026… as well as analysis for 2026 – 2029! Analysis for the US Dollar & Forex, Interest Rates, Stock Indexes and Bitcoin/cryptos concurs.
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