Gold & XAU Signal Higher Moves; Gold Could Surge into Early-Jan.; XAU Projects New Multi-Year Highs!
12/07/19 Weekly Re-Lay: “The next cycle high of similar magnitude (actually, one degree higher) comes into play in ~March 2020, when the next multi-month peak is anticipated.
The unique aspect of recent price action is that Gold & Silver could also create intermediate lows in the coming week (Dec. 9 – 13) – perpetuating a 28-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression in Silver while also fulfilling a 7-week high-high-(low) Cycle Progression.
That would also arrive at the same time the metals set 3 – 6 month (or longer) lows in 2015, 2016 & 2017.
Silver has a pivotal level of ‘resistance turned into support’ – its late-Jan. ’18 peak – near 16.20/SIH. That is also where monthly trend support resides.
The coming week’s action should help clarify if Gold could still wait until the first half of Jan. ’20… if Gold spiked lower and reversed higher in the coming week, that cycle could invert and time a new 1 – 2 month peak (that would also fulfill an ~18-week/~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression). So, as always, price action needs to be the ultimate filter.
In either case, the 3 – 6 month outlook continues to look for a more significant peak in ~March 2020…Gold has produced 2 – 4 week lows at a similar 30-day/30-degree interval – on Sept. 10, Oct. 11 & Nov. 12. That sequence could produce another 2- 4 week low on Dec. 10 – 12.
Gold’s daily trend pattern adds some corroboration, pinpointing Dec. 10 as the more likely date for a 1 – 2 week low. The recent action has accelerated near-term cycles, producing the potential for dual fulfillment of weekly cycles (2 – 4 week peaks and lows in the same 2-week period of time) in the first half of December.
The XAU corroborates this potential for dual fulfillment of weekly cycles… To recap, the XAU’s weekly trend generated a 1 – 2 month buy signal in mid-Oct. and projected a rally back to 102.29/XAU as its primary (minimum) upside objective.
That indicator is not constrained by time so it could be fulfilled two months later… or six months later. The timing doesn’t matter as long as it does not violate this trend structure and turn its weekly trend down in the interim. That was/is factor #1 and remains unfulfilled…
Factor #4 involved a recurring 14-day low (Sept. 16) – low (Oct. 1) – low (Oct. 15) – low (Oct. 29) – low (Nov. 12) – low (Nov. 26) Cycle Progression that next comes into play on (Dec. 10). An overlapping 28 – 29 day low (Aug. 19) – low (Sept. 16) – low (Oct. 15) – low (Nov. 12) Cycle Progression also comes into play on Dec. 10/11.
With the XAU spiking to new highs on Dec. 5 but failing to turn its intra-month trend up, it ushered in the time for a brief pullback at the same time Gold had projected a 1 – 3 day pullback into Dec. 6 (+ or – 1 trading day). That could spur a quick, sharp drop into Dec. 10/11 – creating another low in both the 14-day and 28 – 29 day sequences… since it already fulfilled upside price objectives…
Bottom Line: The XAU fulfilled multiple price and timing upside objectives this past week, while remaining bullish and on track for larger-magnitude upside objectives to be met in the coming weeks.
That could/should spur a pullback into Dec. 10/11 before another multi-week low takes hold…”
Gold & XAU poised for quick pullbacks into Dec. 10 followed by new multi-week rallies. If confirmed, Gold could see surge into early-Jan. ’20 – fulfilling and/or inverting multiple weekly cycles. Precious metals action reinforcing potential for ‘5th’ wave advance following the bottoming phase in Oct./Nov. ‘19. Intermediate cycles provide intriguing potential for 1Q 2020.
What is in Store for Gold in 1Q 2020?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.