Gold Reinforcing June 30th Low; Silver Portends July ’26 Bottom; XAU Concurs.
07-11-26 – “Gold & Silver are bouncing after Gold dropped to a new intra-year low in late-June, fulfilling an ~11-week high-high-high-(low; June 29 – July 2, ’26) Cycle Progression while providing another intra-week spike below its Oct ’25 low (4th wave of lesser degree).
Silver completed a trio of similar-timed waves that comprise the entire ‘A-B-C’ decline. A Silver low in late-June/early-July ’26 also completed a 50% retracement in time and fulfill a ~9-week/63 – 64-week low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
The recent lows also fulfilled weekly HLS indicators & reinforced prevailing wave analysis that the recent decline (since mid-April ’26) is still a corrective one that is likely a ‘C’ wave.
The recent spike low reinforced the outlook for the next significant peak to occur in Oct ’26 – fulfilling a ~4-year low (4Q ’14) – low (Aug/Sept ’18) – low (Sept/Oct ’22) – (high; Sept – Nov ’26) Cycle Progression & a ~1-year/~360-degree low (Oct ’23) – high (Oct ’24) – high (Oct ’25) – (high; Oct ’26) Cycle Progression.
If a low has just taken hold… Gold could now see a 13 – 14-week advance into Oct ’26 – rebounding .618 of its recent 22-week decline while mimicking the 13 – 14-week rally of Oct ’25 into Jan ’26 and perpetuating a sequence of geometric (~3-month/~90-degree) moves.
It would take daily closes above the July 6th highs to turn the daily AND intra-month trends up and initially validate that scenario.
It is also important to step back and review the longer-term/multi-year outlook for Gold & Silver… and some reinforcing Cycle Progressions.
Silver has a ~2.5-year/~30-month low (March ’20) – low (Sept ’22) – low (April ’25) – (low/high; Sept/Oct ’27) Cycle Progression that is likely to time the next 6 – 12-month peak. A preceding high in ~Oct ’26 would corroborate.
The midpoint of that ~30-month CP is the latest phase of a ~14 – 15-month low (Jan/Feb ’24) – low (Apr ’25) – (low; June/July ’26) Cycle Progression that would likely project a rally into Sept/Oct ’27 (it’s next phase) if a low is set now…
The XAU & HUI declined from mid-May cycle highs into early-July, fulfilling their weekly trend patterns, setting the stage for an intermediate low as they attack their rising monthly 21 High MACs.
As stated last month, the ideal scenario would have this decline stretch into July 6 – 10, ‘26 (July 6 – 8th = most synergy) and fulfill a ~4-month/~17 – 18-week low-low-low-low-(low; July 2 – 10, ’26) Cycle Sequence and a ~6-week high-high-high-high-(low; July 6 – 10, ’26) Cycle Progression.
That has initially taken place and also fulfilled key downside price projections as these indexes appear to be completing an overall ‘a-b-c’ decline – in the wave ‘IV’ of a potential 5-wave sequence that began with the Sept ’22 low.
This is taking place in the month after the XAU triggered the second neutral signal to its prevailing monthly uptrend – the optimum time (the subsequent month; July ’26) for a 3 – 6-month (or longer) low to take hold…
Platinum & Palladium remain in 3 – 6-month declines as Palladium attacks its rising monthly 21 Low MAC (and neutralized its monthly uptrend for the second time) at the same time Platinum attacks its rising monthly 21 High MAC.
Platinum also dropped right to its Oct/Nov ’25 low (1539/PLV) – its 4th wave of lesser degree support on a multi-year basis. A 1 – 2-month rally to ~2000/PLV appears likely… needing daily closes above the July 6th highs to validate.
Copper remains positive, on a multi-month basis, until a weekly close below 5.850/HGU. It is expected to see a new rally into late-July ’26 Cycle Progression highs and could extend that advance into mid-August.”
Gold & Silver (as well as other metals & related indexes) are fulfilling ongoing analysis for a multi-month correction that should bottom at or above their Oct/Nov ’25 lows… ideally in July ’26. This is still perceived to be an ‘A-B-C’ correction (of an over-arching multi-year uptrend), with the terminal ‘C’ wave at or near its low.
Late-June/early-July ’26 is/was the ideal time for a spike low and the start of a multi-week bottoming process, with Gold leading the way. Late-July/early-August ’26 is shaping up as the most likely time for a new surge to take hold as part of Gold’s projected multi-month advance from its June 30, ’26 low. The XAU is consolidating near its lows… awaiting bullish cycles to kick in (in late-July/early-August ’26).
All of this remains in the context of the unfolding scenarios projected for 2022 – 2028/2029, with Gold & Silver nearing a transition into the next phase of their over-riding outlook. If they begin a new surge in late-July/early-August ’26, that would powerfully corroborate projections for 3Q & 4Q 2026… as well as analysis for 2026 – 2029! Analysis for the US Dollar & Forex, Interest Rates, Stock Indexes and Bitcoin/cryptos concurs.
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