Gold & Silver Poised for 4-Shadow Signal
09/16/15 Intraday Weekly Re-Lay Alert: “The action of Sept. 1st–15th, however, is increasing the possibility that there will be more (to the upside) in the near future. And, there are multiple reasons for this – some of which involve current indicators & cycles and others that involve…the potential for a larger-degree `4-Shadow’ signal in Gold and/or Silver…
There are several reasons why it is possible in this time frame. However, the more significant aspect is what it would mean for 2016 – and how it would corroborate the overall outlook – IF it did transpire now…
To put it concisely, a 4-Shadow signal is generated when the correction in a market (a move in the opposite direction of the larger-degree trend) is larger – in time and/or price – than the most recent corrections…
In the case of Silver, it has seen reactive bounces (corrections against the ~4-year downtrend) in Dec./Jan. ’15, Mar.–May ’15 and then late-July–late-Aug. ’15… each of which was of diminishing magnitude. In other words, Silver has generated progressively smaller (upside) corrections since turning back down in July/Aug. 2014. That is normal action in an evolving downtrend.
If/when a rally exceeds the magnitude (and/or time) of the preceding one, that would be a sign of developing strength… even though one final drop to new lows could be seen before a sustained advance takes hold. (For more on this, refer to Eric Hadik’s Tech Tip Reference Library.)
In the case of Gold, its recent rally slightly exceeded the magnitude of its March–May ’15 bounce. That is an initially positive sign that usually prompts a reactive drop back toward the lows…
However, I am more focused on the next larger-degree 4-Shadow potential for Gold…
Gold experienced sharp bounces – though each was of slightly lesser magnitude than the one before – in June–Aug. 2013, Dec. ’13–Mar. ’14 and Nov. ’14–Jan. ’15. So, in order to trigger a larger-degree 4-Shadow signal, Gold would have to exceed the magnitude and/or time of its Nov. ’14–Jan. ’15 rally.
That lays the groundwork for this discussion…
In order to validate this potential, the current rebound/rally in Gold should be greater than 11 weeks & 174.5 pts. (the extent of the Nov. ’14–Jan. ’15 rally)…And that begs the more important question: “Are there other reasons to expect Gold to extend this rally into the second half of October?”
In this case, the answer is yes. There are as many – or more – intermediate cycles & wave projection tools that converge around Oct. 23/26th…There are more reasons for this possibility… and slowly-developing clarity on what to expect between now and Jan. 2016…”
Gold & Silver poised to extend rally into late-Oct. before a final decline. Gold has already given initial ‘4-Shadow’ signal that sets the stage for a much stronger rally to take hold inJan. 2016. If both of these unfold, it would powerfully reinforce the outlook for 2016!
See 2016 – The Golden Year Reports for additional analysis on why this could also be a precursor to momentous shifts in specific Middle East nations (as well as Russia & China), beginning in 2016–2017 and carrying forward into Middle East Unification Cycles in 2018–2021! Crude & related petro-currencies should bottom in 1Q 2016 and also begin to reverse higher.