Gold/Silver Shift on Track; Silver Projects New Rally into Mid-Nov.
10/22/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver are poised to enter a new phase of their intermediate rebounds with Silver continuing to show signs of a major bottom…
Gold & Silver remain above their Sept ’22 lows with Silver setting a series of three successively higher lows since Sept 1 (even as Gold did the opposite). They are poised to enter another multi-week rally as a majority of cycles & indicators are still favoring that 1 – 2 month bottoms are in place. To recap:
- Silver was projected to see a strong surge in Sept ’22, expected to be its largest rally since before the early-Mar ’22 peak. Silver fulfilled that, surging more than 20% and providing its greatest rally since Feb/Mar ’22. (It also matched the 33-day duration of that previous Feb/Mar ’22 rally.)
In the process, it closed above its mid-Aug high – signaling that a higher-magnitude rebound was likely unfolding, which would involve a subsequent sell-off and additional rally to follow. The sell-off has just transpired.
- Gold fulfilled a 66 – 69 day/~9.5 week high (3/08) – low (5/16) – low (7/21) – (low; Sept. 26 – 28) Cycle Progression while bottoming in late-Sept ’22. That cycle broke down into thirds, creating a 21 – 23 day/15 – 18 trading day low-high-low-low Cycle Sequence… that was just perpetuated with the Oct 20/21 low. Watch Nov 11 – 16 & Dec 5 – 7.
- Gold completed successive declines of ~equal duration (7 months each) while setting its late-Sept ’22 low. That is expected to hold for 1 – 2 months.
- Gold dropped to its weekly HLS (1648.6/GCZ) on Oct 14 – the extreme downside target for that week. By holding that level on the weekly close, Gold signaled an intermediate bottom should soon take hold and usher in another multi-week rally.
- Gold’s 4-Shadow Signal of July/Aug ’22 projected a subsequent drop to new lows followed by the largest rally since the Mar ’22 peak. It did drop to new lows and then rallied – matching the magnitude of its July/Aug ’22 rally (in half the time; a possible sign of developing, underlying strength).
While that ushered in a likely time for an initial peak – after seeing matching rallies of ~120.0/GCZ each – the ensuing pullback should be a ‘b’ wave decline and give way to a ‘c’ wave rally to new 1 – 2 month highs (to fulfill the 4-Shadow Signal) – possibly retesting intra-year trend resistance at ~1795/GCZ. Other targets & indicators concur.
Similar to the pair of negative 4-Shadow Signals generated in the NQ-100 (in late-’21 and then in early-’22), Silver has triggered a pair of positive 4-Shadow Signals that should prompt another strong rally. The first came in July/Aug ’22 when Silver rallied farther than its two previous rebounds.
That projected a drop to new lows followed by a stronger rally. Silver fulfilled that and produced a larger rally in early-Sept – early-Oct ’22 – exceeding the magnitude of its three previous rallies. That projected a pullback to a higher low followed by a stronger advance.
Silver appears to have completed the pullback in mid-Oct and should now rally into (at least) mid-Nov – matching the duration of its two latest rallies.
Silver has a convergence of weekly cycles in late-Nov/early-Dec ’22 that could stretch that rally and time the peak of this advance (at least in Silver)…
The XAU & HUI are rallying after retesting recent support (and the XAU’s range target near 95.00). They held above their mid-Oct lows with attention focused on Nov 7 – 18, ’22… when a future high is most likely. They closed above their daily 21 High MACs while turning those averages up – a positive pair of signals. That should spur an initial surge to 117 – 120/XAU & 224 – 230/HUI.
Platinum & Palladium remain above their early-Sept lows (like Silver) and continue to build bases after Platinum fulfilled a 12 – 13 week low-low-low-high-high-(low) Cycle Sequence at those lows…
Platinum closed above its weekly 21 High MAC but still needs a weekly close above 941.2/PLF to turn its weekly trend up. The weekly 21 MAC signal could spur a quick rally above 1040/PLF. Platinum has been building a base for ~4 months and could soon trigger acceleration higher.”
Silver is steadily validating what has been discussed throughout this year – that Sept ’22 would usher in the time when Silver begins to overtake Gold (shift in Gold/Silver ratio) and sees stronger rallies due to multiple factors. Silver’s initial intermediate advance is projected to take it up to 22.50/SIZ with the potential to surge as high as 24.50 – 25.00/SI before the end of 2022. Platinum is showing similar signs of developing strength and should rally into/through November.
What Does (Potential) Shift of Gold/Silver Ratio Portend?
Could Platinum Surge with Silver?
How Does Current Action Corroborate 2023 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.