Gold & Silver Poised for New (Dec ’22) Rallies; Silver Targeted for ~24.50/SI; XAU to 137.
11/26/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver pulled back to support and could see new surges… Gold & Silver pulled back from their mid-Nov highs – which attacked intra-year trend resistance (Jan ’22 low) at 1793.5 – 1795.0/GCZ and 22.20 – 22.50/SIZ – and are fulfilling expectations for a new rally to take hold this past week.
For the last couple months, Silver’s rally has been expected to stretch into late-Nov/early-Dec ‘22 – when weekly cycles converge. That remains the case and has been reinforced by some daily cycles.
Gold has been likely to extend this rally into Nov 28 – 30, the latest phase of a 55 – 58 day high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression, and exceed the duration of each intermediate rally since early-March. That would initially fulfill the third phase of its July/Aug 4-Shadow Signal.
The equivalent ~8-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression projects a peak for anytime between Nov 28 – Dec 2/5. (Gold already fulfilled the first two phases of that 4-Shadow Signal by dropping to new lows and then generating the largest magnitude rally since before March ’22).
In Silver, a rally into Nov 28 would match the 12-week duration of the Dec ’21 – Mar ’22 advance and rebounding 50% of the duration of the Mar – Sept ’22 decline. Since Silver is expected to be entering a larger-magnitude advance, its current advance should exceed the duration of the previous one… so more upside is likely…
If Gold & Silver set multi-week peaks by/on Dec 2, they could correct into ~Dec 9 and fulfill a 9 – 10-week high-low-low-low-(low) and a corresponding 5-week low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
As long as Gold turns its weekly trend up on Dec 2 (with a weekly close above xxxx.x/GCZ), a subsequent rally (after a pullback into ~Dec 9) could last into year-end…
The next rally could catapult Silver above 23.00/SIZ and ultimately to 24.50 – 24.90/SIZ. Since early-July, Silver has traced out an inverted head-and-shoulders with the neckline at ~21.00/SIZ (left shoulder = July 14 penultimate low, head = Sept 1 ultimate low, right shoulder = Oct 14 secondary low) and the resulting upside target at ~24.50/SIZ.
24.50/SIZ is also where Silver initially found support after its early-March peak. And 24.93/SIZ is final intra-year trend resistance (Jan ’22 high).
In recent months, Gold has set its own trading ranges with borders/parameters at ~1625, ~1725 & ~1825/GCZ. The past week’s action reinforced that – pulling back to ~1725/GCZ and reversing higher. That should spur a rally to ~1825/GCZ in the coming week(s).
Corroborating that potential, Gold closed above its weekly 21 High MAC on Nov 25 and is now likely/ expected to turn the direction of that average up in the coming 1 – 2 weeks. It would need to exceed 1834.8/GCZ by/on Dec 2 to accomplish that in the coming week. (It would be significantly easier for Gold to turn that average up on Dec 5 – 9.)…
The XAU & HUI are validating the outlook for another surge into Nov 28 – 30, fulfilling daily cycles AND a ~7-month high-high-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Sequence. That could stretch an intraday/ intra-week high as late as Dec 2 and propel them up to (or above) secondary upside targets at 130 – 137/XAU & 245 – 251/HUI.”
Silver is confirming analysis for a 6 – 12 month (or longer) low in Sept ’22 (a 1 – 2 year uptrend could follow) and an initial multi-month advance to 24.50 – 25.00/SI before the end of 2022. Gold retested its late-Sept ’22 low and held in early-Nov, triggering an intermediate buy signal in the days that followed. This ~2-month lag has intriguing ramifications for 1Q ’23.
The XAU & HUI are corroborating this outlook and on track for surges above 130/XAU & 250/HUI. Platinum is showing similar signs of developing strength and should rally through November, potentially surging above 1100/PL.
What Does Gold’s 4Q ’22 Cycle Low Portend into 1Q ‘23?
How Could This Impact Cycle Highs in Jan & late-Feb/early-March ’23?
What Should Follow Projected Silver Surge to ~24.50/SI?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.