Gold, Silver & XAU/HUI Project Mid-July Peaks and Aug 14 – 21, ’23 Lows!
07-13-23 – “The Dollar Index is fulfilling its weekly trend pattern – portending a drop to new lows. The weekly 21 MAC corroborated that on July 3 – 7 after the Dollar Index rallied right to its weekly 21 High MAC (103.18/DXU) and reversed lower, generating an outside-week/2 Close Reversal lower on July 7. That was/is expected to spur a quick, sharp drop into July 14.
The Dollar is still expected to set its next multi-month peak on Aug 14 – 25, ’23 – the fulfillment of a 23 – 24 week & 11 – 12-week high-high-(high?) Cycle Progression…
Gold & Silver have rebounded after Gold fulfilled a 28 – 29 day low (Mar 8) – high (Apr 5) – high (May 4) – high (June 1) – (low; June 29/30, ‘23) Cycle Progression (that could ultimately reinforce future cycle lows in late-August – two more 28 – 29 day cycles in the future)…
With the current week’s LHR at 1984/GCQ, and several related indicators and resistance levels at 1983 – 1987/GCQ, Gold could spike up to ~2000.0/GCQ but close the week at or below 1984/GCQ. (It could also rally to ~1984/GCQ tomorrow and then give a quick spike high – to ~2000/GCQ – and reversal lower on July 17.)
Silver is attacking intra-year resistance near 25.20/SIU and is still likely to set its next multi-week high around July 14, ’23 – ~3 months/~90 degrees from its April 14 high and ~6 months/~180 degrees from its Jan 17 high.
The next multi-month cycle low in Gold is still expected in late-Aug ’23… A low on Aug 21 – 25, ’23 would complete both a 50% and a .618 retracement in time (both lows of the late-2022 double bottom are used to calculate the ensuing rally), a 16-week/26-week low-low-low (1/1.618) cycle, and a ~3-month/~90-degree low (Nov 23) – low (Feb 27) – low (May 25/26) – (low; Aug 23 – 28) Cycle Progression.
The XAU & HUI are fulfilling short-term projections (7/08/23 Weekly Re-Lay) for a quick surge to ~130 – 133/XAU & 254 – 257/HUI.
Following a July ’23 (secondary) peak, metals and the related indexes are expected to decline into mid-Aug ’23. A low in the XAU at that time would fulfill an uncanny ~23-week high-high-high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and overlapping 45 – 51 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
More specifically, that 23-week Cycle Progression recurs on Aug 11 – 18, ’23. Corroborating that, a .618 retracement in time (28-week rally followed by 17-week decline) would reach fruition on Aug 7 – 14, ’23 [199-day rally & 123-day decline pinpoints Aug 14, ’23].
That is also the latest phase of a ~12-month high (Aug ’19) – high (Aug ’20) – low (Sept ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – (low; Aug/Sept ’23) Cycle Progression in the XAU.
Ideally, the XAU & HUI would ultimately drop back to/below their early-March lows – which now represent 4th wave of lesser degree support near 110.0/XAU & 210/HUI… This scenario – particularly the cyclic aspect of it (XAU low on Aug 7 – 18, ’23) – is when the greatest synergy of cycles, timing objectives, and Cycle Progressions converge… creating the ‘ideal’ time for a multi-month low.”
Gold & Silver remain below the lows set while fulfilling multi-month upside price targets AND cycles/timing indicators that peaked on May 3 – 5, ’23 (while convincingly reinforcing two future cycles). They completed initial sell-offs in May ‘23 with the weekly trends providing additional corroborating clues – projecting a new decline after a reactive bounce – that is ultimately projected to stretch into the second half of Aug ’23, when a myriad of weekly & monthly cycle lows collide.
From a broader perspective, the early-May ’23 peaks powerfully corroborated the other primary cycle focus for 2023 – the time frame in/around late-Oct/early-Nov ’23. That remains a decisive cycle, with some surprising expectations for the months leading into it, beginning in late-Aug ‘23! [The period surrounding early-Aug ’23 could provide additional reinforcement.] A strong rally could begin in the second half of Aug ’23 and last into late-Oct/early-Nov ’23.
All of this action, since late-2022, is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential with the Dollar Index already fulfilling multi-year upside targets and signaling that a major top is in the making! The Dollar is projected to set a future peak on Aug 14 – 25 while Gold is likely setting a multi-month low.
The XAU & HUI are similar and fulfilled projections for a strong rally into, and a multi-month top in, early-May ’23. In mid-April and early-May ’23, they reached convincing upside targets and signaled 3 – 6 month peaks and the onset of a 1 – 2 month corrections… which have been unfolding. They were expected to bounce into mid-July ‘23 and then sell off into the second half of Aug ‘23… attacking ~110/XAU & ~210/HUI before a multi-month low would become most likely.
The XAU possesses the most consistent and uncanny weekly cycle – a 23-week high (Jun ’21) – high (Nov ’21) – high (Apr 18 – 22, ’22) – low (Sept 26 – 30, ’22) – low (Mar 6 – 10, ’23) – (low; Aug 14 – 21, ’23) Cycle Progression that portends a multi-month bottom on Aug 14 – 21, ’23 (greatest synergy of cycles on Aug 15 – 18, ’23). Related cycles in Gold & HUI overlap this period, projecting a multi-month bottom during that week or the week the days that follow (overall period of Aug 14 – 25, ’23).
How Does Early-May Peak Corroborate Aug – Nov ’23 Cycles?
Is a New MAJOR Bull Market Unfolding? If so, When is a Breakout Likely??
How Are Interest Rates & Inflation Creating a Unique Opportunity?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure for expanded analysis that addresses some of those questions.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.