Gold & Silver Enter Time for Multi-Week Correction; Watch Late-Sept ‘26.
08-30-26 – “Gold & Silver’s August ’26 surge corroborated last issue’s discussion and increased the likelihood for a future bout of inflation. The overlapping surge in energy prices reinforced that conclusion and help lay the groundwork for increasing deterioration in the purchasing power of the US Dollar.
This is in perfect sync with ongoing analysis – since the 2010’s – for a decisive ~7-year period (2022 – 2028/2029) following the culmination of the latest phase of the 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in 2016 – 2021.
The past month saw government inflation reports moderate, but they are just reflecting prices that are already in the past. They reflected what the markets already knew – that commodity price inflation eased in May & June ’26. All one has to do is pull up a chart of the GSCI to get a general glimpse of that.
And that was in lockstep with multiple Cycle Progressions – discussed since late-2025 – that projected an initial surge in energy prices and the GSCI, from mid-Dec ‘26 into mid-April ‘26. That index corrected in May & June, reflecting what these past-viewing reports revealed recently.
Inflation: Past, Present or Future?
What those reports did not show (but what the markets are already reflecting) is that commodity inflation has been steadily rising since early-July ’26.
This time it has been more of a ‘double-whammy’ or ’triple-whammy’ – with the entire precious metals’ spectrum rallying along with energy prices, grains, & diverse commodities.
While the US and other nations are desperately trying to suppress the price of oil – with massive drawdowns in strategic reserves, etc. – Crude remains high while Unleaded Gas and Heating Oil are setting multi-year highs (as the winter heating season approaches).
There is one potential bit of good news in the midst of that. The period of Sept 4 – 11, .26 comprises a great synergy of Cycle Progressions – some weekly, some monthly – that converge in the energy markets and are increasingly likely to time an important top.
Perhaps one of the most intriguing of those is the ~8-month low (early-Jan ‘24) – low (early-Sept ‘24) – low (early-May ‘25) – low (early-Jan ‘26) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the onset of this 2026 surge in oil prices… while projecting an overall advance into early-Sept ‘26 – the next phase of that ~8-month cycle (see related HCP diagram on page 10, previously published in early-2026). If that is accurate, the energy surge (except Natural Gas) could be nearing a peak.
Another related C.P. is illustrated above and involves the ~18-week Cycle Progression in the GSCI that was fulfilled in late-April ‘26 and projected a future peak at this time (Aug 31 – Sept 11, ‘26).
In some respects – since that commodity index is heavily weighted in energy – it is reflecting what is already anticipated in the oil markets. However, there is enough of a non-correlation factor – incorporating the surging prices of grains, softs, metals, etc. – to give this index and its related cycles some independent credibility (apart from energy prices).
The bottom line is that the current period – most synergistic on Sept 4 – 11, ‘26 – is a likely time for a multi-week (or longer) peak in many inflationary markets… a factor that could impact interest rates in 3Q ‘26.
The Catch-22
The ‘respite’ in inflationary pressures – at least according to government reports – took the weight off Gold & Silver and allowed them to surge from multi-month cycle lows.
As explained last month, those metals typically lead inflation… not follow it.
That concurs with another principle that is repeatedly stressed in these publications. It is the principle that purports the strongest correlation to rising precious metals prices is NOT (current) inflation, is NOT geopolitical upheaval and is NOT even a US Dollar decline.
Each of those factors plays a role in the price of Gold but they rarely lead a sustained move in Gold.
Instead, the strongest correlation is the perception of current & future interest rates since Gold is a non-yielding asset. As a result, rising interest rates – or at least the expectation of them – has a suppressing impact on Gold since those rising interest rates provide an alternate investment opportunity while Gold sits.
Similarly, the expectation for economic-constraining interest rate hikes also has a burdensome impact on Silver since they are expected to suppress growth.
Whether these perceptions morph into reality is a moot point since expectations are what drive the markets. Gold’s biggest surges have come when interest rates were expected to moderate. And its 1Q/2Q ‘26 decline was mainly linked to high interest rate fears.
Recent interest rate expectations helped the Dollar Index fulfill multi-month cycle highs and sell off in July & Aug ’26. While this did coincide with the rally in Gold & Silver, the timing and magnitude of corresponding moves diverged significantly. However, the outlook into 2028/2029 remains the key!” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!!
Gold & Silver, Platinum & Palladium and the XAU & HUI surged into late-August ‘26 and above 4680/GCZ (almost reaching the extreme target at ~4800/GCZ) – and to 72.05/SIZ – fulfilling the upside potential for this multi-week advance. (Oct ’26 is the next month in focus!) An intermediate top is now expected, turning focus to late-Sept ’26 for a subsequent low:
8-26-26 – “A myriad of signals identified late-July ‘26 as the most likely time for the onset of an accelerated rally in precious metals… a rally that could initially extend into late-August… Gold, Silver, Platinum & Palladium generated a series of convincing buy signals in mid-to-late-July…
Silver has related targets & decision points at 70.80 – 72.80/SIU… Silver has weekly cycles converging at this time and a high on Aug 21 – 28, ’26 would fulfill a ~15-week low-high-high-high-(high; Aug 21 – 28, ’26) Cycle Progression… The XAU & HUI also surged into late-August, fulfilling almost all of what was projected from their mid-July ’26 lows… and set the stage for a future (higher) low in late-Sept ’26…”
All this remains in the context of the unfolding scenarios projected for 2022 – 2028/2029, with Gold & Silver entering the next phase of their overriding outlook. Having fulfilled the projected surge into late-August ’26, that powerfully corroborates projections for 4Q 2026… including the timing and extent of the next (likely) rally in Gold & Silver, following a late-Sept ’26 intervening low!
Analysis for the US Dollar & Forex, Interest Rates, Stock Indexes and Bitcoin/cryptos concurs. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
See current Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for the most updated analysis.