Key Stock Indexes Project Late-Jan ’26 Peak; Subsequent Declines into March/April ‘26!
01-29-26 – “Outlook 2026 – The 17-Year Cycle & Inflation
“Expanding on last issue’s discussion, 2026 presents a unique opportunity – from a cycle perspective – to provide dual fulfillment of the 17-Year Cycle in stocks. The likely timing for that fulfillment to begin is now – the fulfillment (peaking) of 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions (ideally) in late-Jan ‘26.
But that is just the start.
2026 is also providing multiple other fulfillments of that same 17-Year Cycle in other markets… that are loosely connected to the outlook for equity markets. They are also connected to the outlook for interest rates, the US Dollar Index, the economy, and a key factor in all of these:
Inflation.
Stagflation
In 2024 & 2025, INSIIDE Track explained why multiple recurring longer-term cycles were greatly increasing the potential for Stagflation in 2026.
‘Inflation’ – What’s in a Name?
The definition of economic ‘inflation’ varies greatly depending on who is doing the defining. The Fed uses multiple gauges, including their preferred index – the PCE. Other indexes – like the CPI & PPI – also measure one type of inflation in the economy.
Another inflation gauge deals with ‘pure’ commodity inflation – the price levels (combined) of multiple daily ‘commodities’. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is one of those related gauges – that is often discussed in this publication..
Another definition of inflation – that gets much closer to the crux of true inflation – seeks to track the value of the corresponding currency (the currency in which that inflation is being measured) to determine whether more or less of that currency is needed to purchase those commodities.
If it takes less currency to buy more items, that is essentially deflation. If it takes more currency to buy less of those same items – that is inflationary.
Of course, even this gauge has some sticking points. For those living in the USA, the Dollar Index is often cited as the primary assessment – an index that prices the US Dollar against a basket of other (fiat or debt-based) currencies.
The problem is that inherent weakness in other global currencies can mask the underlying weakness in the US Dollar. When underlying ‘inflation’ is impacting most or all of those currencies, it becomes a futile exercise of determining the ‘best looking horse in the glue factory’. In the end, they are all heading for trouble.
A better gauge is comparing a currency to a long-time, somewhat stable store of value. In this case, that is valuing the Dollar against Gold or Silver.
True Inflation & True Currency
One can look at the Dollar-based price of Gold or Silver – over an extended period of time – and get a better feel for what the US Dollar is truly worth (when that chart is inverted). That is a reliable determinant of whether or not inflation is at work.
That brings us back to the 40-Year Cycle of Currency War that has been a focus of INSIIDE Track discussions for over a decade. It was projected to usher in a dramatic shift beginning in 2022, immediately after the culmination of the final years of the preceding 40-Year Cycle – in 2016 – 2021.
Prior to and since 2022, INSIIDE Track has repeatedly explained why this new phase should see the ‘demise’ – to one extent or another – of the US Dollar as global currency kingpin.
2025/2026 was projected to usher in a dramatic phase of that new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War – as reinforcing 17-Year Cycles joined forces.
One of those had to do with economic recessions and the likelihood for the next phase to include Stagflation. 17 years from 2009/2010 is 2026/2027 and the time when that challenge was/is likely to emerge and impact our economy. Along with that, there were other inflation-related 17-Year Cycles.
17-Year Cycle & Silver
One of those 17-Year Cycles was projected to time a massive bull market in Silver, Platinum & Palladium (and also Gold, just not to the extent that Silver was forecast to surge) – beginning in early-April ’25 and lasting into 2026.
Ideally, those dramatic advances would stretch into April/May 2026 in Silver & Platinum while Palladium could extend its surge into 3Q 2026.
That conclusion has been repeated month-in and month-out, so that the overall context and outlook would not be lost. Leading into early-April ’25, there was a myriad of cycles, Cycle Progressions and technical indicators – all projecting the same thing.
One of them is worth revisiting now.
17-Year Cycle & Silver Surges
For the first 3 months of 2025, the Weekly Re-Lay kept repeating analysis that Silver needed to see a final spike below its Nov ’24 low before it would fulfill a Major, multi-year wave IV decline and be ready for an even more significant (9 – 12 months or longer) wave V surge. That was a critical price ‘filter’.
Silver fulfilled that analysis in early-April ’25 and did it while completing an internal ‘flat’ a-b-c correction – the most (subsequently) bullish type of correction since a market sets a pair of lows at roughly the same price… instead of the second low being significantly lower than the first.
Flat corrections typically precede accelerated advances – the most dynamic wave in an overall wave structure.
Simultaneously, Platinum & Palladium were fulfilling related corrections and pinpointed the week of April 7 – 11, ’25 (see April & May ’25 issues of INSIIDE Track and Weekly Re-Lay) as the most likely time for the weekly 21 MACs to turn positive and help spur the onset of an accelerated 6 – 12-month surge in those white metals. Monthly 21 MACs concurred, pinpointing April ‘25 for an upward shift.
Overlapping those was the uncanny 17-Year Cycle, preparing Silver for a massive advance – linked to the 2008 – 2011 surge (~500% gain) during the previous phase of that 17-Year Cycle.
That fulfilled the same 17-Year Cycle that timed the multi-year rally beginning in 1991 AND its predecessor in 1974 (resulting in a ~1000% gain).
In March/April ‘25, one of the many parallels involved the similarity between Silver in 2025, 2008 & 1974 – in which each time Silver had rallied to an initial peak and then corrected for ~6 months before entering the real breakout advance.
In April ’25, Silver was matching the duration of the 2008 & 1974 corrections and preparing for that projected major advance to follow.
17-Year Cycle & Silver-Based Inflation
The reason for revisiting that analysis now is the developing, but VERY general, fulfillment of related rallies… and how this one highlights the escalating inflation in Dollar-related instruments – highlighting the accelerating erosion of the Dollar’s value.
To review, the 17-Year Cycle of Silver timed major, multi-year advances in Silver that averaged ~500% gains… beginning in 1974, 1991 & 2008.
And, the most recent phase of that 17-Year Cycle of Silver in 2008 – 2011 (potentially the best ‘comp’ to use) was also a ~500% gain.
If Silver experiences a ~500% gain from its early-April ‘25 low (~27.50), it would reach ~137.5/SI.
If Silver were to precisely match its most recent 17-Year Cycle surge – also keeping pace with the average of the previous 3 phases of that same 17-Year Cycle – it would ultimately reach ~155.0/SI.
(2008 low of ~8.78 x 5.64 = 2011 high of ~49.52/SI; April ’25 low of ~27.50/SI x 5.64 = ~155.0/SI.)
That is a VERY general comparison – only intended to remind readers of this rally’s potential in a historical context – and also does not pinpoint how much time is needed to ultimately fulfill that. (In the interim, late-Jan ’26 cycle highs are in focus.)
However, it reinforces the accelerating ‘inflation’ that is eroding the value of the US Dollar… even as the Fed talks about ~3% inflation and the target ~2% inflation.
Those figures are smoke and mirrors. But at least they pacify the masses.
Inflation Impact on US Dollar
There are other factors corroborating this, including multi-year cycles in the Dollar Index that project the next major low to wait until Dec ‘27/Jan ’28.
Among other cycles, that would fulfill a ~3.25-year/39 – 40-month low (Feb ‘18) – low (May ‘21) – low (Sept ‘24) – (low; Dec ‘27/Jan ‘28) Cycle Progression. An initial low in January ’26 could reinforce those cycles.
And then there is ongoing analysis in the GSCI – as well as in the Energy Complex – that has been projecting a near-term advance from multi-month cycle lows in Dec ’25… into Feb and possibly March ’26 (potentially heightening the Fed’s concern about nagging inflationary factors).
The first stage of that was a projected surge in those inflation markets into today – January 29th. If an initial peak is seen now – fulfilling the intermediate outlook in Crude and related markets – that would reinforce future intermediate cycles.
If that overall outlook is fulfilled – and the past ~6 weeks have initially validated it – the ‘inflation’ numbers are going to look very concerning when they finally come out in March & April ’26. The first signs of worry could emerge when January ’26 numbers come out in mid- and late-February ’26.
Energy/Equity Connection… & Extremes
Reinforcing the pivotal nature of this week – and its connection to multi-month AND multi-year Cycle Progressions, stock indexes – another measure of one type of ’inflation’ – concur with energy markets and project a peak for now – Jan 28/29, ’26.
(The Jan 28, ’26 Weekly Re-Lay Alert elaborates on all of this and details why the markets have now reached extremes on many levels.)…
Late-January ‘26 has long been identified as the time for upside extremes in stock indexes and precious metals, so an inflection point is at hand.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are fulfilling a myriad of multi-month & multi-year Cycle Progressions that project multi-month peaks to take hold in Jan/Feb ’26 – ideally in late-Jan ’26 – and usher in new declines. The NQ-100 fulfilled multi-year upside objectives (timing & price) in late-Oct ’25 and set a likely 6 – 12-month peak at that time, leading this topping phase.
Other indexes are expected to set final highs in 1Q ’26 – some now and others in February ’26 – as this overall topping process unfolds. Subsequent intermediate lows are projected for the days surrounding February 6/9th & March 6/9th, ’26… as part of this overall sequence. The NQ-100 was/is projected to set a series of 1 – 2 week lows on Jan 21/22nd, Feb 6/9, Feb 19 – 23 (corrected), & March 6/9, ’26 as part of this unfolding pattern. Subsequent lows are also possible around March 20/23rd & April 6 – 9, ’26.
The outlook for a major low in energy prices in January ’26 coincides with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026. An oil price rally into mid-March ’26 would corroborate that and is being reinforced by the potential for an initial high in late-Jan ‘26. That would project a future peak for March 9 – 13, ’26 – the completion of the 4th consecutive ~11 – 12-week rally and a corroborating ~6-week low-high (Jan 28/29, ’26) – (high; March 9 – 13, ’26) Cycle Progression. The GSCI concurs.
How Could NQ-100 Confirm Late-Oct ’25 Cycle Peak?
Is S+P 500 Fulfilling Projected Late-Jan ’26 Peak?
How are Oil/Energy Cycles Reinforcing 1Q ’26 Outlook?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.