Nasdaq-100 Leading Topping Process; Other Indexes Focused on Dec ’25 Cycle Highs.
11-19-25 – “In Feb ’25, the Weekly Re-Lay warned about a developing scenario that could see late-2025 usher in a dangerous time for Bitcoin/cryptos and ultimately for stocks. As 2025 unfolded, Bitcoin fulfilled timing signals for a pair of peaks – first in July and then in 4Q ’25 – while fulfilling major upside price objectives and range-trading targets (~125,000 – 127,000/BTC).
The action since Bitcoin’s peak in early-October – at the precise midpoint of the Cycle Progression that timed it’s June 23rd & Sept 1st lows and projected a future multi-week low for Nov 17 – 21, ’25 – has initially validated this scenario… with some serious ‘tail wagging’. The ‘dog’ has twitched a bit, too.
This is likely to be merely an initial validation with 1Q 2026 possessing a greater probability for fulfillment during a vulnerable (future) cyclic period.
This scenario involved a perceived parallel between the 1920’s, the 1990’s & the 2020’s – dealing with derivatives that took on a life of their own due to unrestrained and unbridled speculation. The first triggers were projected for Nov/Dec ’25.
In each case, the biggest part of the problem has to do with disproportionality regarding the time of an overall bull market during which the majority of speculators enter a given ‘bubble’ (see Nov 5 & 12, ’25 Weekly Re-Lay Alerts for related details).
In most cases, this type of connection or correlation only becomes pronounced during extreme phases of the ‘tail’s’ action… in this case, that refers to an extreme phase of Bitcoin’s & cryptos’ decline… which is probably still yet to come.
On an intermediate basis, Bitcoin was forecast to plunge from its record high – near 126,000/BTC – to at least 80,000/BTC within a few months.
The second phase of that decline (after the initial one from October 6th – 17th) was projected to take Bitcoin down to [reserved for subscribers] as it fulfilled ongoing Cycle Progression analysis for a drop into Nov 17 – 21, ’25…
Stock Indices declined into mid-week with the DJIA dropping right to its weekly HLS (weekly extreme downside target) as the NQ-100 fulfilled an initial downside target for this week, described in this Nov 15, ’25 Weekly Re-Lay analysis:
“The NQ-100 remained weaker and is validating a scenario that could see it drop back to ~xx,xxx/NQZ in a few weeks (possibly in November). The next level of corroboration would arrive if it drops to ~24,450/NQZ in the coming week… and closes near its intra-week low on Nov 21st.”
The NQ-100 fulfilled the first part of that, dropping to 24,376/NQZ and closing at 24,595/NQZ on Nov 18th. Combined with the DJIA’s action and the S+P 500 spiking down to monthly AND weekly support – as all of those indexes fulfilled 38 – 39-day/~28 trading day low-low-(low; Nov 18, ’25) Cycle Progressions – it set the stage for a brief rally…
From a multi-month perspective, the key remains the weekly trend and the weekly 21 MAC…
Bitcoin & Ether continue to drop after Bitcoin attacked & held major upside targets (~125,000 – 127,000/BT) while peaking in 4Q ’25 but holding its July ’25 peak – the time when major Bitcoin-related stock cycles (COIN, MSTR, etc.) peaked.
Ether set a divergent peak in late-Aug – fulfilling its multi-year upside wave target and a 38-week low-high-high-(high: Aug 25 – 29, ’25) Cycle Progression. Both are fulfilling projections for an overall decline into Nov 17 – 21st…” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are mixed with multi-month cycles peaking Dec ’25 – when a consistent ~13-month Cycle Progression recurs. A more significant peak is expected at that time, dovetailing with the latest phases of the ~2-Year Cycle and a related ~4-Year Cycle Progression. An ‘eerie parallel’ – connected to projections for Bitcoin & cryptos to turn decidedly negative in Nov ’25 – is unfolding.
The NQ-100 could be leading a topping process and had daily & weekly Cycle Progressions converging on Oct 28/29th – when a multi-week peak was likely. It peaked closer to the recent Bitcoin top, validating an early sign of that ‘eerie parallel’. On Nov 4th, it turned its daily trend down – confirming a multi-week (and potentially larger) peak and projecting a pair of declines this month.
The Oct ’25 high fulfilled the 5th consecutive ~3-year advance in the Nasdaq-100, since its March 2009 bottom. They occurred in March ’09 – March ’12, June ’12 – July ’15, Aug ’15 – Aug ’18, Dec ’18 – Nov ’21 and now October 2022 – October 2025. The final week of October saw multiple daily Cycle Progressions converge with the latest phase of its ~8-month/~35 – 36-week low (Mar ’23) – low (Oct ’23) – high (July ’24) – high (Feb ’25) – (high; Oct 17 – 31, ’25)… the ideal setup for a multi-month (minimum) peak!
The Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert reiterated the outlook for the rest of 2025 in most other indexes and expectations for a dangerous period between Dec ’25 and March/April ’26. It stated:
9-03-25 – “The second cycle peak arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression. Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle… closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak… It would be a more ‘pure’ cycle peak if new highs were seen at that time…” – End of excerpt from Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Has NQ-100 Peaked – in Sync with Late-Oct ’25 Cycle Highs?
Will Other Indexes Wait for Dec ’25 Cycle Highs?
Why is Dec ’25 – March/April ’26 Vulnerable & Linked to ‘Eerie Parallel’?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.