NFLX = First of FAANGs to Fall; Could AMZN Could Be Next? (Watch Late-August)
NFLX = First of FAANGs to Fall; Could AMZN Could Be Next? (Watch Late-August)
08/11/18 Weekly Re-Lay: Stock Indices are moving in fits and starts, rallying during the first half of the week in sync with daily trend patterns and geometric cycles… Two bellwether stocks (AMZN & MSFT) attacked their weekly LHRs – attaining extreme upside targets and providing added signs that a new multi-week correction could be close at hand…
Stock Indices, except for the Nasdaq 100, remain mired in wide trading ranges, set by the action of Jan. 26 – Feb. 9 – a two-week period… The DJIA remains well below its Jan. 2018 peak and stuck in that two-week range. Equally significant, it took the DJIA 18 weeks to recoup what was lost in the 5 weeks of its secondary decline (late-Feb. – late-March 2018). Several factors are setting these indexes up for a moderate correction.
The NQU recently completed a textbook 5-wave advance (from early-April) at 7510/NQU, sold off and spiked to near-term support (‘a’ wave decline; testing the convergence of dual weekly HLS levels at 7170 & 7171/NQU) and then rebounded… the NQU was unable to turn its daily trend down so a retest of that 7530/NQU remains a strong possibility…
Most stock indexes dropped on Friday, in response to heated rhetoric between the US and Turkey – exacerbating an intensifying economic crisis in Turkey. The question will be whether this morphs into anything larger.
The DJIA has identified a pivotal range of support for the coming week that includes the weekly HLS, weekly 21 High MAC & MARC. It comes into play at 24,944 – 24,977/DJIA..”
Stocks are reinforcing expectations for a topping process in 3Q 2018 followed by an initial decline in 4Q 2018. NFLX – one of the primary drivers of this year’s advance – is showing the first signs of trouble. AMZN & MSFT just hit weekly extremes, portending a 1 – 2 month (or longer) peak by late-August. Look for other ‘proxy stocks’ to show similar signs of topping in the coming month(s).
By year-end, the DJIA is projected to drop to 22,100/DJIA – its primary downside target for 2018. For now, it should find decisive support just below 25,000. Look for precarious period in 4Q 2018, particularly after/if (lower) peaks are set in late-Nov./early-Dec.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.