NQ-100 Reinforcing Oct 28/29th Cycle Peak; Need Confirmation.
11-08-25 – “Stock indexes fulfilled near-term analysis for a drop into Nov 7/10th and need to generate new sell signals to spur further declines. The NQ-100 is in an intra-month downtrend that could spur a new round of selling into mid-month…
Stock Indices neutralized their intermediate uptrends while initially fulfilling the outlook for a quick, sharp drop from late-Oct into Nov 7/10th.
On an intermediate basis, any of these indexes need to give a daily, and then weekly, close below the Oct 10th low to signal a larger-degree top… price action is the primary focus and could receive negative reinforcement in the second half of November ’25…
If that is going to be the case, leading indexes would likely generate weekly closes below their weekly 21 Low MACs during the week before those 21 Low MACs turn down. The more likely scenario would see that negative close occur on Nov 21st and the reversal lower on Nov 24 – 28th.
Stock indices sold off into Nov 7th, already fulfilling the early-month outlook for a drop into Nov 7/10th. They are all in daily downtrends except, ironically, the DJTA but only two have been able to turn their new intra-month trends down. They are the S+P 500 – which barely turned it down on Nov 6th before rebounding to neutralize it on Nov 7th – and the NQ-100.
Their late-week sell-off fulfilled the short-term outlook after bouncing on Nov 5th and testing daily LHR levels without neutralizing their new daily downtrends. That reinforced the outlook for continued downside into Nov 7th or 10th.
That drop also fulfilled the outlook for the S+P Midcap 400 to extend its sell-off into Nov 7/10th – 1 month from the Oct 10th low & 7 months from the April 7/8th lows – and then set a future low around Dec 8 – 10th. It would take daily closes below the Nov 4th lows – in the DJIA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap – to signal new weakness and turn the new intra-month trends down.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes remain in overall uptrends, expected to extend into Dec ’25 in most indexes – when a consistent ~13-month Cycle Progression next recurs. A more significant peak is expected at that time, dovetailing with the latest phases of the ~2-Year Cycle and a related ~4-Year Cycle Progression.
The NQ-100 had daily & weekly Cycle Progressions most synergistic on Oct 28/29th – when a multi-week peak was likely. On Nov 4th, it turned its daily trend down – confirming a multi-week (and potentially larger) peak. Future price action should clarify how significant of a decline is likely in the coming months.
The Oct ’25 high fulfills the 5th consecutive ~3-year advance in the Nasdaq-100, since its March 2009 bottom. They occurred in March ’09 – March ’12, June ’12 – July ’15, Aug ’15 – Aug ’18, Dec ’18 – Nov ’21 and now October 2022 – October 2025. The final week of October saw multiple daily Cycle Progressions converge with the latest phase of its ~8-month/~35 – 36-week low (Mar ’23) – low (Oct ’23) – high (July ’24) – high (Feb ’25) – (high; Oct 17 – 31, ’25)… the ideal setup for a multi-month (minimum) peak!
The Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert reiterated the outlook for the rest of 2025 in most other indexes and expectations for a dangerous period between Dec ’25 and March/April ’26. It stated:
9-03-25 – “The second cycle peak arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression. Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle… closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak… It would be a more ‘pure’ cycle peak if new highs were seen at that time…” – End of excerpt from Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Has NQ-100 Peaked – in Sync with Late-Oct ’25 Cycle Highs?
Will Other Indexes Wait for Dec ’25 Cycle Highs?
Why is Dec ’25 – March/April ’26 Vulnerable?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.