NQ-100 Signals Mid-March Low; DJIA Projects April 19 – 21 Peak.
03/23/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “The markets are passing through an annual period of transition. For those that view the calendar from a ‘natural’ standpoint (as most agrarian or agricultural-based societies do), this period is the 1st month of the Natural Year in the N. Hemisphere – beginning with the vernal equinox (March 20, 2022).
If one were to begin a calendar on the vernal equinox (start of the Natural Year), the first month of that year would end on April 19/20th. It would be the ‘opening range’ for that Natural Year; a pivotal and determining factor for the ensuing intra-year trend. Why?
The Sun governs our seasons (and a good part of our lives), which are measured by the solstices and equinoxes. This has been true in agrarian (farming-based) societies for thousands of years. It has been true in civilizations that worshipped the Sun (and established their calendars based on that focus) – much of which is still prevalent in our calendar.
As such, the vernal equinox starts the clock on the ‘opening range’ of each Natural Year.
It is when the northern half of the earth transitions from seasonal ‘death’ to ‘life’. In the old days, it was also when ‘kings went off to war’ (coming back to life just in time to go perpetrate death). Is it any surprise that the latest war was triggered as soon as the Earth was conducive to a massive ground invasion?
From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year. This is similar to how I treat the first 3 weeks – and month – of the calendar year, the first 3 trading days of each month, and the first day of the week.
Once that opening range (first 30 days) of the Natural Year is complete, you have resistance and support for the entire period – both when the market is trading in that range AND once it has broken out of it.
You also have an important gauge of trend for that year (if the market is trading above that range, it is in an uptrend on an intra-year basis, etc.).
Emphasis on the Natural Year was more significant 100 years ago since the commodity markets were almost all agricultural. Mid-April was the time when ‘carry-over stocks’ were at their lowest and when planting conditions and expectations for the new crop year – or growing season – were becoming apparent.
But it is not just trading that is impacted…
This period – from March 20/21 to April 19/20th – marks a very important transition period linked to various means of measuring time with physical (natural), celestial (astronomy), metaphysical (astrology) and supernatural (Jewish & Christian commemorations) implications and influences.
It is a time to watch each year for signs of ‘change’.
In many ways, April 19/20th acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming (Natural) year. As I have discussed for the past three decades, that time (surrounding April 19) is what I term the Date of Aggression.
Is it any surprise that so many weekly & monthly cycles are converging in the stock market on April 18 – 22, ’22 and portending an important peak.
If that is fulfilled, those highs would take on even greater significance due to their role within the opening range of the Natural Year… and the link to the Date of Aggression.
From a market perspective, the year of 2020 provided perfect fulfillment of this Natural Year shift with the entire stock market, most metals and many commodities bottoming on March 18 – 23, 2020 and beginning new bull markets from there.
That was due to the synergy of many corresponding and corroborating cycles and timing indicators all projecting the same thing. The 2-Year Cycle could help spur an initial rally into mid-to-late-April.
In 2021, stocks began a second intra-year rally in late-March and the originating lows became pivotal support that was tested multiple times in some indexes (like DJTA & Russell 2000)…
Stock Indices surged since setting divergent lows in successive weeks (March 8 & 15) with the leading/ stronger DJTA setting higher lows while the lagging/weaker NQ-100 set lower lows and fulfilled its intra-month downtrend (with a mid-month low).
As soon as the NQ-100 had fulfilled downside targets, it allowed all the other indices to accelerate their developing uptrends in the second half of March ‘22… in the inverse of the roller-coaster analogy.
That spurred a quick rally into March 22 – fulfilling a short-term 7-day low-low-high Cycle Progression while fulfilling daily trend and intra-month trend expectations for an initial high in the opening days of this week.
That could spur a pullback to test the early-month highs (resistance turned into support for the intra-month uptrends) and then a rally into early-April – when short-term cycles next peak. Those support levels come into play at 34,179/DJIA, 4411/ESM, 14,389/NQM, 15,646/ DJTA, & 2067/QRM.
As long as they do not give daily closes below those levels, the intra-month uptrends should supply another round of upward pressure into month-end… Just as the indexes did during most months in May – Dec ’21, they have set intra-month highs in the first 1 – 3 trading days of each month in 2022.
(The S+P 500 is a perfect example of this, setting intermediate highs on Jan 4, Feb 2 & Mar 3. It also has a ~3-month/13-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression recurring on April 4 – 8, ’22.)
That ~30-day/~1-month cycle could repeat in April while also providing an intervening 14 – 15 day high-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Sequence that timed the March 22 high and projects future highs on April 5/6 and then on April 19 – 21 – precisely when weekly cycles have been projecting the next intermediate peak… the next phase of a consistent 14 – 15 week low-low-low-high Cycle Progression… In addition, that is precisely when the first month – or opening range – of the new Natural Year culminates.”
Stocks fulfilled the outlook for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a 2 – 3 month plunge to begin 2022. Daily & weekly cycles projected a multi-week/multi-month bottom on Feb 23/24 with the NQ-100 remaining weak and portending a divergent spike low on March 14 – 18. That is just the start of a massive shift projected for 2022 – ultimately leading to market jolts in late-2022 through late-2023.
This stock market rebound is unfolding after Gold fulfilled analysis for an overall advance from late-Sept into early-March – with a myriad of cycles peaking on March 7 – 11. That also powerfully validates War Cycles projected to begin in late-2021/early-2022 and stretch through 2025. The next decisive time for stocks should arrive on/around the Date of Aggression – April 19/20, ’22. That is also when an unrelated convergence of daily & weekly cycles align.
How Does This Impact 10, 20 & 40-Year Stock Cycles Colliding in 2022?
Could Date of Aggression Usher in Precarious Time for Stocks?
How Do Gold Cycles (Peaking on April 18/19) Fit Into Equation??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.